Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 pics from last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 One of my mother's friends saw your yard apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 coming down hard at hatt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 coming down hard at hatt I posted this in the SE forum.... they are just a few mph away from a blizzard. METAR KHSE 222151Z AUTO 03014G28KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV003 M01/M02 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 01029/2125 SLP086 P0016 T10061017 TSNO $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 great disco from akq 222049AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 349 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON TUE AND WED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF SOLN AND HOW IT HAS STAYED VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE H70 LOW POSITION AND TRACK OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. I CAN NOT SAY THE SAME FOR THE GFS AND ITS GEFS SOLNS NOT ABLE TO COME TO ANY ONE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TRACK. SO WITH THIS IN MIND...THE GFS AND DGEX ARE THE FURTHEST EAST OF SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY. SINCE IT IS DAY 4/DAY 5 PERIOD...THIS IS USUALLY WHERE SOME MODELS WILL DO A DRAMATIC JUMP EAST TO ONLY QUICKLY CHANGE ITS MIND OR SLOWLY TREND BACK WESTWARD TO THE ORIGINAL SOLNS OVER THE NEXT SERIES OF RUNS. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THIS WITH THE COASTAL CAROLINA SYSTEM TODAY. 84 HRS AGO...ALL SHRT RANGE GUIDANCE KEPT THE SYSTEM WAY OFFSHORE AND LITTLE BY LITTLE HAVE TRENDED BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. STILL GNRLY KEEPING THE WARMER SOLN OF MODELS WITH THINKING OF PHASING TO DVLP LATER WITH THE NRN/SRN STREAMS. NEW EURO IS SLOWER WITH PRECIP START THEREFORE...PRECIP WILL NOT INITIALLY START TILL AFT 12Z TUE (IF NOT LATER AM AS TRENDS CONTINUE TO SLOW ITS NORTHWARD TREND). THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS BECOMING MORE OF A PROBLEM FOR MODELS TO HANDLE WHEN AND HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH WITH THE HIGH SITUATED OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE LONGER IT TAKES TO MOVE UP THE COAST...THE CLOSER TO THE COAST IT WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK AS THE HIGH WILL BE FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS OF NOW...PRECIP LOOKS TO START OUT AS LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FAR S/SE TUE AM. AS PRECIP SHIELD PUSHES TO THE NORTH OVER THE CWA...LOOK FOR IT TO BE COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OVER THE CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH -SN GNRLY OVER THE NWRN THIRD. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RAIN SOLN TUE EVE AS WARMER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE RGN AT 850 LVLS (MORE OF A RA/SLEET SOLN OVER THE NW THIRD). HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE RA/SN LINE ON WED WITH MORE CHCS OF SN OVER WRN THIRD. PAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT H85-50 FRONTOGENESIS DVLPG AFT 06Z WED THROUGH AROUND 15Z WED. OVERLAYING THIS WITH WHERE THE SE H70 WINDS INTERSECT THE +/- H85 THERMALS...THERE IS NOW BETTER SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT THERMAL DIFFERENCE TO SEE DECENT COLLISION AND COALESCENCE FOR A GOOD SHOT OF MOD/HVY PRECIP WHERE THE RA/SN LINE EXISTS. TAKING TOTAL VERBATIM...MORE OF AN ACCUMULATION WILL DVLP OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND INTO THE MIDDLE AND NRN NECK AND INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE ERN SHORE. FOR NOW...HAVE CRNTLY STAYED FURTHER TO THE WEST (WITH TRENDS OF SYSTEMS OF LATE) AND KEPT BETTER ACCUM CHCS FURTHER INLAND. BEAR IN MIND...ITS STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO PROJECT ANY SN/PL ACCUMS AND RAIN AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...STILL THINKING THIS WOULD BE THE AREA TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE ACCUMS OF SN/PL. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...AND COULD SEE SOME ACCUMS REACH FURTHER ALONG THE COAST BEFORE ENDING AS FLURRIES....TIME WILL TELL. ANOTHER COLD AIR PUSH DVLPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM (BUT MODERATES) LATE WK AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WK. TABULAR STATE FORECAST FOR VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 400 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 ROWS INCLUDE... DAILY PREDOMINANT DAYTIME WEATHER 6AM-6PM FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EARLY MORNING LOW/DAYTIME HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION NIGHTTIME 6PM-6AM/DAYTIME 6AM-6PM - INDICATES TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO MM INDICATES MISSING DATA FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT JAN 23 JAN 24 JAN 25 JAN 26 JAN 27 JAN 28 JAN 29 ...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INCLUDING RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS... NEWPORT NEWS RICHMOND PTCLDY MOCLDY MOCLDY SNOW SUNNY PTCLDY SUNNY 17/36 17/30 27/38 35/38 29/44 26/43 26/46 00/00 10/10 10/20 50/50 50/20 10/10 10/10 CHESTERFIELD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS 348 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 .THROUGH 7 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 14. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 17. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 21 here now akq going for 14 i am calling for 11 here ric had a hi of 27 here coldest so far this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 6pm 21 here ric 22 7pm 19 here ric 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 21 here now akq going for 14 i am calling for 11 hereric had a hi of 27 here coldest so far this season 26.9* was my high here. Currently at 18.2 with a dew point of 2. If we had gotten a little bit of snow from the Hatteras system, lows near zero might have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 6pm 21 here ric 22 7pm 19 here ric 20 8pm 17 here ric 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patreeot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12 here, dp is -13, but i've long known that is way off. Still a 2.5 drop in the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 6pm 21 here ric 22 7pm 19 here ric 20 8pm 17 here ric 21 9pm 16 here ric 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patreeot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My link 12 in Petersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 13.3* at 10:00 here. Dew point of 8*. Might make single digits, but it will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patreeot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Down to 10.0 now. Tuesday: A slight chance of rain and snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tuesday Night: A chance of snow before 1am, then a chance of rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday: A chance of snow and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Can I split the difference with these temps in the forecast? Low 20s with some moisture would be better than 10 and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 6pm 21 here ric 22 7pm 19 here ric 20 8pm 17 here ric 21 9pm 16 here ric 20 10pm 15 here ric 17 tied my coldest after 10pm of 14 for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Anyone want to go sledding on the Kill Devil Hills tomorrow? I'm not sure if they got enough snow though... All of the good snow was located right on top of Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 6pm 21 here ric 22 7pm 19 here ric 20 8pm 17 here ric 21 9pm 16 here ric 20 10pm 15 here ric 17 tied my coldest after 10pm of 14 for the season 11pm 14 here ric 14 WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 10 at 11:30 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 11.2 at midnight. It's freaking cold out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 6pm 21 here ric 22 7pm 19 here ric 20 8pm 17 here ric 21 9pm 16 here ric 20 10pm 15 here ric 17 tied my coldest after 10pm of 14 for the season 11pm 14 here ric 14 WOW! 12am 13 here ric 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmiser Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12.8 here... 35 miles NE of Richmond... it may not look like winter out, but it damn sure feels like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
288West Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 8.7 Degrees here now, Woodstove working OT keeping it 74 in the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT's first guess maps are honestly laughable - why would you try to predict anything at this point with so much uncertainty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Currently sitting at 19* here in D.C. while it is 12* back home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patreeot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT's first guess maps are honestly laughable - why would you try to predict anything at this point with so much uncertainty? Why? They look like a blend of just about all the models. Probably a safe bet at this range. is this laughable? based on most of the data, I think DT's stands a better chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patreeot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Temps held at 10 for a while but have dropped quickly in the past half-hour to 8.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Why? They look like a blend of just about all the models. Probably a safe bet at this range. is this laughable? based on most of the data, I think DT's stands a better chance of verifying. Maybe laughable is too strong of a word. My point was that I don't think he should release any sort of map until Sunday night or Monday morning at the earliest, but that is just my opinion I guess. Also he has no mention of the possibility for back-end snows in area B which is sort of misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patreeot Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Maybe laughable is too strong of a word. My point was that I don't think he should release any sort of map until Sunday night or Monday morning at the earliest, but that is just my opinion I guess. Also he has no mention of the possibility for back-end snows in area B which is sort of misleading. My link is that the back-end snows you are talking about? LOL 110126/0000Z 72 20003KT 31.1F ICE 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110126/0300Z 75 VRB02KT 29.8F ICE 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110126/0600Z 78 08005KT 35.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110126/0900Z 81 09005KT 34.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110126/1200Z 84 04007KT 35.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.075|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110126/1500Z 87 05010KT 36.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.256|| 0.34 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110126/1800Z 90 02013KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.138|| 0.48 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110126/2100Z 93 35017KT 35.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.252|| 0.73 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110127/0000Z 96 33016KT 32.4F SNOW 19:1|13.9||13.9 0.724|| 1.46 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110127/0300Z 99 33014KT 32.2F SNPL 8:1| 0.8||14.7 0.098|| 1.56 0.03|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 83| 10| 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 6pm 21 here ric 22 7pm 19 here ric 20 8pm 17 here ric 21 9pm 16 here ric 20 10pm 15 here ric 17 tied my coldest after 10pm of 14 for the season 11pm 14 here ric 14 WOW! 12am 13 here ric 14 1am 13 here ric 15 hit 12 inbetween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Richmond Metro Airport Temps (3am) Richmond Int'l: 13°F Chesterfield: 12°F Petersburg/Dinwiddie: 10°F Ashland/Hanover: 13°F If RIC hits 11°F, it will be the coldest since January 2009. Last winter's lowest temperature was 12 set on January 31st and February 1, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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