Kevin Druff Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Can I join you guys? That thread really kills me sometimes... more sensible convo. going on in here. That thread has just been the icing on the cake of a really ****ty tracking week when it comes to this storm. They've blown through what? Almost 5,000 posts over this storm. And 4,500 of them are pointless and a waste of my time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Agreed...love to have you. We aren't spoiled enough down here to act like the "others". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is the radar I like to look at: http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php I can span both my monitors and ALMOST get the entire CONUS visible. That's what I use to start my day to get the big nowcasting picture, but it's still a composite in the end and needs to be interpreted as such. Still have to use other radars for the snow/mix, but it's definitely my favorite CONUS rain map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Sorry.... based on the the evolution.. seems the moisture just does not quite reach the area (not much at least) from the south. The northern stream energy then energized the system by the time it has passed our latitude. Oh, I'm not knocking you or saying you're wrong. I've been right there with you since Saturday. I'm usually the optimist around, but I'm going to pull a Howell here and say we get nada... dryslot FTMFW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Can I join you guys? That thread really kills me sometimes... more sensible convo. going on in here. BTW, what are your thoughts on precip type issues in the RIC Metro area? It seems that the model consensus is to take the 0c line right over RIC during the storm, if not past it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is the radar I like to look at: http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php I can span both my monitors and ALMOST get the entire CONUS visible. WeatherTAP seems to be fairly accurate as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BTW, what are your thoughts on precip type issues in the RIC Metro area? It seems that the model consensus is to take the 0c line right over RIC during the storm, if not past it. It's going to be hard to tell since the storm is making it's jump into the second stage over the Atlantic, but I would say that RIC stays snow for most of the time, with some sleet thrown in. The snow (and more notably hard-hitting snow) has been consistently further south than originally anticipated, and while I expect this trend to continue the storm's redevelopment has the potential to put a monkey wrench into that line of thinking. If you take my final call map: and expand the 1-2" shading further south to cover VA/NC that would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BTW, what are your thoughts on precip type issues in the RIC Metro area? It seems that the model consensus is to take the 0c line right over RIC during the storm, if not past it. There will be no precipitation falling, IMO. What falls will saturate the atmosphere then we'll be stuck in the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 looks like ORF only gets to 33 for a high today..maybe 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Agree Kevin.....I don't see much (if anything) hitting the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Interesting. Granted, I'm not a met, so, please, take what I say/think cum grano salis, and feel free to educate me on why I'm wrong, but... I am STILL sitting at a dewpoint of 13.5* ... it's gonna eat up a LOT of that .25" QPF to saturate that. I just don't see that much moisture streaming towards RIC on the radar. It's going to be hard to tell since the storm is making it's jump into the second stage over the Atlantic, but I would say that RIC stays snow for most of the time, with some sleet thrown in. The snow (and more notably hard-hitting snow) has been consistently further south than originally anticipated, and while I expect this trend to continue the storm's redevelopment has the potential to put a monkey wrench into that line of thinking. If you take my final call map: and expand the 1-2" shading further south to cover VA/NC that would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 seriously? I have lots of trees around my house, but I can't imagine missing 4.25! Can you break the events out for me? December 12/5: 0.50" 12/13: 2.50" 12/16: 1.75" 12/25: 2.50" 12/26: 1.75 Total: 9.00" 2.25" for this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Interesting. Granted, I'm not a met, so, please, take what I say/think cum grano salis, and feel free to educate me on why I'm wrong, but... I am STILL sitting at a dewpoint of 13.5* ... it's gonna eat up a LOT of that .25" QPF to saturate that. I just don't see that much moisture streaming towards RIC on the radar. Really I'm just nowcasting at this point, to which everyone has their own unique interpretation and analysis. There are some more significant dewpoint derpressions to overcome for sure, but you can still get 1"+ when the temp/dew spread is even 6 degrees at the surface (so long as the low/mid levels are saturated). I also have a little intuitive thought (see: gut feeling) that the coastal redevelopment could end up dropping more QPF than expected near the VA coast/Delmarva. I'm just putting out what I think will happen, and I think your forecast is a viable option at this point as well, and there's a decent/good chance for that to happen as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 December 12/5: 0.50" 12/13: 2.50" 12/16: 1.75" 12/25: 2.50" 12/26: 1.75 Total: 9.00" 2.25" for this month Ok...I have measured 7.0 imby....thats closer. I thought you were saying that you had 4.25 MORE than my 7.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ok...I have measured 7.0 imby....thats closer. I thought you were saying that you had 4.25 MORE than my 7.0 He has 9 inches for the month of December + the 2.25" for the month of January. This equals a total of 11.25" for the season. Unless your not counting the totals (if any) for January so far. 11.25- 7.0 = 4.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 He has 9 inches for the month of December + the 2.25" for the month of January. This equals a total of 11.25" for the season. Unless your not counting the totals (if any) for January so far. 11.25- 7.0 = 4.25" ahh....gotcha. I live in my own personal snow hole.....or more than likely, I am missing an ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 there has been a slight change in our local forecast. it was a 60% chance of a lt wintry mix tonight. now its a 70% chance of occasional snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Light snow entering SW VA... creeping closer... mixed precip. not too far behind: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 thick cloud deck moving in from the sw now. you will be right. snow on va/nc border by 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 thick cloud deck moving in from the sw now. you will be right. snow on va/nc border by 5pm Maybe some flurries, but not the accumulating snow I wanted (yet?)... for the central/eastern VA/NC border. Keep us informed! ...not sure where you are exactly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Maybe some flurries, but not the accumulating snow I wanted (yet?)... for the central/eastern VA/NC border. Keep us informed! ...not sure where you are exactly... virginia beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Maybe some flurries, but not the accumulating snow I wanted (yet?)... for the central/eastern VA/NC border. Keep us informed! ...not sure where you are exactly... I've got a vantage from the 20th floor of a downtown norfolk building. Clouds rolling in, but still clear over the bay. Still think snow is a few hours off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not expecting much here in Norfolk, one reason is most places in Raliegh and Eastern NC are only reporting flurries or light light snow with the heavier band, the air is just too dry and there isnt enough forcing. By the time we get some precip tomorrow it will be too warm and be mainly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm thinking Norfolk sees a slushy 1/2-1" tonight, a change over to rain by mid morning and then a chance at seeing another 1/2-1" on the wrap around as the low deepens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm thinking Norfolk sees a slushy 1/2-1" tonight, a change over to rain by mid morning and then a chance at seeing another 1/2-1" on the wrap around as the low deepens. I could go for that... Maybe my map won't be so bad after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 nice clear skies out right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 nice clear skies out right now Was thinking the same thing on the way home. My dew point has rocketed from 13.0 to 14.0 in the last 5 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Still some breaks inthe clouds here near ORF, but it does appear that next band will make it over us and at least help saturate the column if nothing else, DP is 18 here. Temp 30, with a predicted low of 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbscott126 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The radar is painful to watch right now. Echoes make it just north of the NC/VA border and *POOF* they're gone. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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