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Richmond Metro/ Hampton roads obs/disco winter thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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back to regular ric winter coming up :axe:

Wxrisk.com

THE CENTRAL VA ISSUE ... the RISKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FROM northern MS to AL.

All weather forecasters LIKE to believe that their forecast is going to work out but when you have lived in Eastern Chesterfield County as long as I you become very worried about the last minute changes which can end up really hurting you. The forecast maps which I ssued earlier are all FIRST GUESS maps. For those of you that are new to WXRISK.COM I had been using the 1st GUESS 1ST CALL and LAST CALL the system for while.

Now some of you may be asking why do I just issue one forecast map and let things slide?

Well that is not really a the fair question because if you Are asking that question it shows a real ignorance about winter storms. Nobody else that I know of issues forecast maps for snowfall 72 HRS out. No one. And certainly NOT the detail that I do. But because it still three days out and so many things can an end to change I reserve the right to use anymore sophisticated system.

And if you don't like it then get off my Facebook page and my web site site because I aint changing it. I have been using this system for 10 years and I will continue to do so.

Anyway the point is that in the three areas which I have issued these forecast winter storm maps for ... the area which poses the biggest risk for a complete bust is clearly Central Virginia. There is a real possibility that even though I believe the European model and the European ensemble will l be correct... that central VA could --- COULD -- end up getting a lot less snow than what I am calling for. And a lot less ice. In fact a whole lot of nothing is quite possible.

Again I don't think that is going to be the case but I need to look at what could go wrong. So I hope you read the following with that in mind.

We are dealing with two systems with this winter storm. The first system is the first piece of energy which I talked about on the web page earlier in the week. This FIRST piece of energy and its surface Low will come out of Texas starting tomorrow. Over the Tennessee Valley the cold air is already in place and there is a stalled front over the gulf coast states anyway. This is going to result in significant overrunning precipitation and as a result... northern MS norther AL norhern GA and southeast TN as well as northwest SC and all of western NC.... are all going to see significant snow and probably in some areas of significant ice .

However that first system is going to weaken rapidly as it moves into the Carolinas. Again this i exactly what I was talking about earlier in the week. We then have to wait for the second piece of energy in the jet stream coming out of the Rockies and the central Plains which will cause a new Low pressure area to form along the Carolina Coast.

That coastal Low will become a significant nor'easter. But by the time the Low develops it is possible that most of the significant precipitation will end up affecting Northern Virginia Maryland and up into the big cities of the Northeast.

In this possible scenario -- which again I want to stress is unlikely at this time --- it would leave much of Central Virginia including the Piedmont with little precipitation of any kind.

This would mean that the old trends of Central Virginia getting shafted winter storms would be showing its ugly head once more. This sort of thing ... when you have two Lows-- often results in central VA getting less snow than forecasted .

After all Richmond is not really a part of the I-95 snow climate. You dodnt need to be a climatologist to know that. In fact the old timers rule is that when it snows in Atlanta Raleigh -- sourhern cities -- good snows will almost always reach Richmond.

Only it does NOT seem to work that way anymore. In fact since January 26, 2000 se VA has had 3 storms with 10"+ or more and four 8"+ snows which Richmond officially has not had 8 inches of snow or more in a single storm 11 years ( the last one being DEC 25-26 . Recall that heavy snow northeast GA northwest SC mich of NC and southeast VA missed Richmond by 30 miles. Again)

In this "alternate" scenario..... if this were to verify ....Atlanta wind up having more snow for the season that Richmond.

It would mean that Greenville Spartanburg would have more snow for the season in Richmond.

It would mean Raleigh would end up with more snow in Richmond -- by far.

It would mean for the 2010-11 winter SE Virginia would continue to be a much snow location than Richmond.

That by the way the is the longest duration of any major metropolitan area north of Atlanta in the past two decades.

In other words if you want a REALLY big snow move... SOUTH?... or southwest or North or northeast.

When at some point there will be a winter storm where Richmond does not get shafted with the snow.... I have No idea

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*whistles* I really have not been on the storms band wagon since the dual low structure started popping up a few days ago. And was baffled by local media of potentially 6+ inches during parts of the week for this area. ...

I'm like.. are we not riding to close to the 850 line. Would this not mean potential ice. The precipitation rates have not seem impressive on models for some time now.. and was baffling me why some were riding this storm so much. From a historical and climatological stand point a low passing the north and west (and nearly all levels..)) plus the low along the coast exploding after it get's passed Richmond. These are all red flags and history has proven this is not usually a good thing for this area for "significant" snow. There are exceptions of coarse; but this does not look like a significant event for the central and south eastern portion of Virginia.

I'm siding on the low end with this storm. 3" in a best case scenario for the metro Richmond area. IF we get anything noteworthy.

Time for me to bust! :arrowhead:

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ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TWO LO PRES AREAS THAT WILL AFFECT OUR WX

MON NGT THRU TUE NGT. FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE

BETWEEN LO PRES MOVNG NE ALNG AND JUST OFF THE SE/MID ATLC

CST...AND A SECOND LO TRACKING THRU THE TN/OH VLLYS TWD NEW

ENGLAND JUST W OF THE MTNS. THIS SCENARIO USUALLY LEADS TO LESS

QPF (PCPN) FALLING OVR THE CWA BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH MORE

SIGNIFICANT SNOWS REMAINING OR FALLING WELL TO THE NW OR N OF THE

REGION CLSR TO THE WRN LO AND ASSOC UPR LVL LO. ON THIS FCST

ISSUANCE...WILL BE GOING CLSR TO THE LATEST GFS MDL TIMING AND

ASSOC THICKNESS VALUES CONCERNING PCPN TYPES AND CHANGEOVER.

BELIEVE INITIALLY...JUST ABT ALL AREAS WILL START OUT AS SNOW AT

THE ONSET MON EVENG/NGT INTO TUE MORNG...EXCEPT FOR CSTL NE NC

WHERE RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN TUE

MORNG. DURING TUE MORNG...WRMER AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN FM THE SSE

WILL CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING

RAIN...GENERALLY ALNG AND E OF I95. THERE WILL BE A QUICK

CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN OVR MUCH OF NE NC AND EXTRM SE VA.

WARM AIR ALOFT SPILLS FARTHER INLAND LATER TUE MORNG INTO THE AFTN

OVR SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE PENINSULAS/NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE

LEADING TO MORE OF A FRZG RAIN/SLEET SCENARIO (CLOSE TO THE AREA

THAT SAW THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM THE LAST EVENT). EXPECT

MAINLY SNOW (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET) THRU THE ENTIRE EVENT

GENERALLY ALNG AND NW OF A SOUTH HILL...TO RICHMOND...TO

TAPPAHANNOCK...TO SALISBURY LINE. AT THIS TIME...LUKING AT TOTAL

QPF OF ABT .20 TO .40 INCH...WHICH CUD PRODUCE 1 TO AS MUCH AS 4

INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR NRN AND WRN CNTIES...WITH A .10 INCH OF ICE

ACCUM POSSIBLE FM FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. SO...WILL NOT ISSUE

ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME...SINCE BELIEVE ONLY ADVSY TYPE AMTS WILL

OCCUR ACRS THE AREA INTO TUE NGT. PCPN EVENTUALLY TURNS BACK TO

SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ALL AREAS TUE EVENG INTO TUE NGT...AS LO

PUSHES FARTHER TO THE NNE OFF THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ CST.

I wonder if we actually do see some freezing rain. That could be interesting

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a look back since thursday zone forecast

ric screw job coming this aft.

thurs pm

VAZ063-064-070>076-082-083-090-071200-
HANOVER-CAROLINE-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-
ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-JAMES CITY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHLAND...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...
TAPPAHANNOCK...WILLIAMSBURG
336 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011

..MONDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
COLD. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

fri am

VAZ070-071715-
CHESTERFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS
427 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.

fri pm

VAZ070-080345-
CHESTERFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS
318 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS AROUND 40.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
COLD. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

sat am

VAZ070-081715-
CHESTERFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS
439 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

sAT PM

VA
Z070-090430-
CHESTERFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS
349 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN
SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW AND SLEET LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW
LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

sun am

VAZ070-091615-
CHESTERFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS
330 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW
AND SLEET LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW AND SLEET LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW

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a look back since thursday zone forecast

ric screw job coming this aft.

thurs pm

VAZ063-064-070>076-082-083-090-071200-
HANOVER-CAROLINE-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-
ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-JAMES CITY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHLAND...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...
TAPPAHANNOCK...WILLIAMSBURG
336 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011

..MONDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
COLD. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

fri am

VAZ070-071715-
CHESTERFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS
427 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.

fri pm

VAZ070-080345-
CHESTERFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS
318 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS AROUND 40.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
COLD. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

sat am

VAZ070-081715-
CHESTERFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS
439 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

sAT PM

VA
Z070-090430-
CHESTERFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS
349 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN
SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW AND SLEET LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW
LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

sun am

VAZ070-091615-
CHESTERFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS
330 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW
AND SLEET LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW AND SLEET LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW

and the final nail in the coffin for an all snow event

VAZ070-100415-
CHESTERFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS
350 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 18. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. A
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SNOW AND SLEET LIKELY LATE.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID
20S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN
SLEET...RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

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It looks like Wakefield decided not to take a stab at my accumulations yet. Mostly all snow however.

Monday Night: A chance of snow, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tuesday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 31. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow and freezing drizzle before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Calm wind becoming west between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible,

Or did they? They took a stab at Monday night and Tuesday night, but nothing for the event on Tuesday. Is Tuesday night liquid equivalent? Or am I misinterpreting this? Why does this have to be so complicated? :(

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The total precip at 60 hours on the nam just brings a chuckle out of me. Nice storm up into NC, only modest amounts for Va, then just explodes for north east maryland and points north and east. Nam is at least a bit better with the 850 temps around central va this run. Still do not see it as an all snow event for the Richmond area.

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It looks like Wakefield decided not to take a stab at my accumulations yet. Mostly all snow however.

Monday Night: A chance of snow, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tuesday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 31. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow and freezing drizzle before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Calm wind becoming west between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible,

Or did they? They took a stab at Monday night and Tuesday night, but nothing for the event on Tuesday. Is Tuesday night liquid equivalent? Or am I misinterpreting this? Why does this have to be so complicated? :(

totalsnow.png

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Such great observations coming out of Tennessee, North Ga, Upstate SC, and Western NC.. Going to be sad to watch all that precip basically dry up by the time it crosses the VA/NC border. :yikes:

NO WAY MAN IT'S GONNA MAKE IT. /weenie

This storm has pretty much been over performing in the south it seems. But yeah, going to dry right on up. :(

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