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Richmond Metro/ Hampton roads obs/disco winter thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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FXUS61 KAKQ 080342 AAA

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

1042 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTH

CAROLINA TONIGHT. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE MID

ATLANTIC REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE

AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO

TRACK NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS OFF THE

MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT WITH A COMPLEX PATTERN OF UPPER

SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND A PARENT UPPER POLAR VORTEX

SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH

IS SLIDING ACROSS NC. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS IS

DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY PROGGED BY NUMERICAL MODEL

GUIDANCE...AND FURTHER SUPPORTED BY REGIONAL 88D RADAR MOSAIC

SHOWING ECHOES OVER FAR SOUTH NC AND NORTHEAST SC. GIVEN THIS THE

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR NORTHEAST NC.

ANOTHER WAVE IS DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND THIS IS

TRIGGERING A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF SNOW FROM THE EASTERN VA

PIEDMONT ACROSS THE RICHMOND METRO TO THE MIDDLE PENINSULA.

SNOWFALL UNDER THIS BAND SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN

INCH...BUT A FEW AREAS COULD REACH AN INCH. THIS WILL BE

HIGHLIGHTED BY AN SPS FOR NOW.

THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AFTER

MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE EASTERN SHORE BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY

TOMORROW MORNING...WITH AGAIN SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN

INCH.

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Curiosity question: if you guys check here, why do we have to email for them to be included on the PNS?

Kevin,

Not everybody checks here. In fact, there are probably 3-4 forecasters that actively do. Of course, the "busier" the weather, the least likely we'll be able to check back, thus the espotter reports are the way to go (they ENSURE we get them!)

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:unsure: Jim duncan now calling for several inchs for tuesday he cant make his mind up :unsure:

All of the forecasters are really pimping this storm. Even here in CHO they are calling for "several inches". All of these "in house" models must really be going gonzo on the precip There haven't been any bad busts on the low side yet so there's not that much pressure to get it right. It's more about the ratings I think.

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This is a pure surprise to me. I went to Wintergreen for the evening and when I was leaving at 10, I heard someone who had just arrived say it snowed all the way up from Gum Springs. I can hardly believe I have 1.25" waiting for me, on 64 now with some flurries.

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