Suffolkweather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 what does the euro show for tue as of 0z precip field shifted the opposite of GFS...ORF now gets what RIC was going to get in 12z & RIC basically gets zip. GFS is out to lunch on this right now. The concern is the suppression scenario with so much blocking & arctic air downstream; not a coastal plain runner. Have you seen some of these progged long term temps?? WOW! Potential daytime highs in the mid teens for ORF 3rd week of the month if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 6z gfs insane look at NC I call bogus on this one. No way it gets that cold. You could make quite a bit of snow overnight with temps that cold, Midlo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 precip field shifted the opposite of GFS...ORF now gets what RIC was going to get in 12z & RIC basically gets zip. GFS is out to lunch on this right now. The concern is the suppression scenario with so much blocking & arctic air downstream; not a coastal plain runner. Have you seen some of these progged long term temps?? WOW! Potential daytime highs in the mid teens for ORF 3rd week of the month if it pans out. ggem gfs ukie all have a coastal storm to some degree how is the gfs out to lunch? I call bogus on this one. No way it gets that cold. You could make quite a bit of snow overnight with temps that cold, Midlo. years ago when i hit -1 one night i made 7 feet in one night. when it is that cold it is amazing how quick it adds up. 12 feet in the front yard right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 6z gfs insane look at NC -5 at Cape Hatteras!!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 6z gfs insane look at NC Hey Midlo where are you finding those types of maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 years ago when i hit -1 one night i made 7 feet in one night. when it is that cold it is amazing how quick it adds up. 12 feet in the front yard right now If we get down into the single digits, and there's no snow cover on the ground, I'm just going to go outside and use my pressure washer to make snow. Surely at that temperature that alone will work without an additional air compressor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hey Midlo where are you finding those types of maps? http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/min_temp.shtml?NCR2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Before we get talking about the south trends of the bigger event, any thoughts of the GFS popping that 994mb low off NC at 42 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The last single digit temperature at Richmond took place on January 17, 2009. The high temperature the day prior was only 23°F which is one of the coldest daytime highs since 2000. As mentioned previously, the lowest daytime high temperature the last decade was 22°F on January 25, 2004. In fact, a modest 4-8 inch snowfall event took place that day with an official total of 4.0" at the airport. Here are the most recent single digit readings since RIC's last official below 0°F occurrence in 2000. Most of the time, we do have a solid snowcover, but there have been occurrences of near 0 degree temperatures without snowcover. I've inserted the official snowdepth at the time of the temperature. 4°F January 17, 2009 (No Snowcover) 8°F January 24, 2005 (1 inch) 8°F January 18, 2003 (2 inches) 22°F January 22, 2004 23°F January 16, 2009 and January 23, 2003 25°F December 20, 2004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 6z gfs insane look at NC I went back to review the 06z GFS. An epic run.....that's quite an arctic outbreak! Also, a widespread snowstorm preceding the arrival of the coldest air. So, maybe not quite -14°F, but a below 0°F quite likely at RIC with that set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z Euro holds with yesterday's 12z on the Jan 11-12 event. Doesn't look very big but maybe a little something. Details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z Euro holds with yesterday's 12z on the Jan 11-12 event. Doesn't look very big but maybe a little something. Details? It's wetter than 12z yesterday and has very good thermal profile for all. ORF .67" RIC .37" ECG .94" GFS is drier (even being a little closer to the coast) and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This little clipper is looking more and more like one of those small events up here that surprise almost everyone and parts of SEVA/ NENC get a couple of inches. Its certainly a possibility if the low tracks to the south like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 sref's on the bus for a light acumm south side va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 00Z GFS [paints about a tenth of an inch precip over southside with .25 around Elizabeth city, NC.......Also has a 994 MB surface low off of Cape Hatteras tomorrow night.... hmm maybe we can squueze a couple inches out of this here in SEVA. The situation later next week has be kind of confused... the gFS shows plenty of moisture coming from the deep south and a favorable SLP track for a good snow across most of Eastern VA, but it has the moisture drying out and low pressure shearing out as it reaches the Atlantic? Odd.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Tuesday has significant mid-atlantic storm written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Tuesday has significant mid-atlantic storm written all over it. Just looked at the DGEX model and it shows mostly rain East of 95 with heavy snow in DC northward.. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 00Z GFS [paints about a tenth of an inch precip over southside with .25 around Elizabeth city, NC.......Also has a 994 MB surface low off of Cape Hatteras tomorrow night.... hmm maybe we can squueze a couple inches out of this here in SEVA. The situation later next week has be kind of confused... the gFS shows plenty of moisture coming from the deep south and a favorable SLP track for a good snow across most of Eastern VA, but it has the moisture drying out and low pressure shearing out as it reaches the Atlantic? Odd.. Exactly. Odd. It is having trouble with the details. Euro has a better handle. Gfs at least has the system in the right area... Hopefully it will start to get the details right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just looked at the DGEX model and it shows mostly rain East of 95 with heavy snow in DC northward.. meh I thought I was crazy. You're looking at rain/snow lines for something 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just getting an overall impression of the upcoming storm I dont take models too seriously , but the pattern looks good with all of the polar blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just getting an overall impression of the upcoming storm I dont take models too seriously , but the pattern looks good with all of the polar blocking. Something is clearly going to happen but there's no point in looking at the models and say: "that's what this one is saying." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I thought studying model output was one of the most integral aspects of weather forecasting? Im im going to get my masters degree in atmospheric science surely i need how to correctly interpret model data and how it correlates with various weather patterns? I admit i am a newbie here but i find it rediculous to call out someone observing model data and discussing the possibilities of what this storm may bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I thought studying model output was one of the most integral aspects of weather forecasting? Im im going to get my masters degree in atmospheric science surely i need how to correctly interpret model data and how it correlates with various weather patterns? I admit i am a newbie here but i find it rediculous to call out someone observing model data and discussing the possibilities of what this storm may bring. Knowing how to interpret them AND recognize their faults are very important. Something is clearly going to happen but there's no point in looking at the models and say: "that's what this one is saying." I don't see the harm in discussing them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I don't see the harm in discussing them It's just so far out to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 0z runs gfs snowstorm ggem snowstorm nogaps snowstorm euro snowstorm ukie who cares i like our odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I just got a little snow shower here. I thought I was crazy but no, not this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 A little trend north would be a nice 1-2 inches for the HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Winter Weather Advisories issued for parts of NE NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0z runs gfs snowstorm ggem snowstorm nogaps snowstorm euro snowstorm ukie who cares i like our odds Out of all of them the GGEM and the NOGAPS are the most aggressive. GFS is bit lack luster.. and the euro is getting better with every run. ukie did not look too bad this time around either. That being said... I really am not a fan of this double low structure. But as long as the coastal remains the main player.. not too concerned about a change over to rain for the Richmond area. Still concerned about warm air intrusions above the surface as well as a possible dry slot do to the low out to the west... that could be present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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