Richmond Metro/ Hampton roads obs/disco winter thread

[Suffolkweather]

Some pretty amazing model agreement between GFS and Euro this run for an event this far out. GFS might be a little farther east but other than that they're in lockstep.

12z GFS & Euro almost identical qpf although GFS isn't quite as tight with gradient!

ORF .60"

RIC .34"

ECG .49"

[Suffolkweather]

Not that it ever looked like a big deal, but was still hoping for a little suprise end of this week. But, SREF is not oblidging. It gives us zippo!

[Midlo Snow Maker]

3 chances of snow not bad

VAZ070-061215-

CHESTERFIELD-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS

331 PM EST WED JAN 5 2011

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY

CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT

AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING.

HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING WEST IN

THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW

30 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS

AROUND 5 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 20.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS

IN THE UPPER 30S.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS

IN THE UPPER 20S.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN

THE MID 30S.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

locals playing it up

[Kevin Druff]

locals playing it up

Jim Duncan has been way more chatty about snow this winter than prior years. Either he's been possessed by aliens or, to a certain extent, they're feeling pressure from other outlets taking share.

If they're this talkative about a threat now, I can't imagine how much they'll talk up any snow possibility during February sweeps...

[Martin]

locals playing it up

Locals never play it up here. In a way I miss JC for that

[cbscott126]

Jim Duncan has been way more chatty about snow this winter than prior years. Either he's been possessed by aliens or, to a certain extent, they're feeling pressure from other outlets taking share.

If they're this talkative about a threat now, I can't imagine how much they'll talk up any snow possibility during February sweeps...

I've noticed that too. Prior to this year, forecasts outside of 48-hours were always the generic "Rain/Snow" or, in the case of Channel 8, "Storm?". They have been increasingly bold with early snow calls. All three local channels now have snow in the forecast on Tuesday. That would almost never happen in prior years. Especially when Mike Goldberg was still at Channel 6. He was the biggest snow pessimist.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

6.8" 18z

StnID: kric   Model: gfs3   Run: 20110105/1800    Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Sleet Ratio: 2:1   || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4

Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
======================================================================================================================
110105/2100Z   3  VRB02KT  40.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110106/0000Z   6  VRB02KT  26.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110106/0300Z   9  04004KT  30.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110106/0600Z  12  04005KT  26.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110106/0900Z  15  02004KT  27.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110106/1200Z  18  36004KT  26.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110106/1500Z  21  03003KT  34.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110106/1800Z  24  VRB01KT  43.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110106/2100Z  27  VRB01KT  38.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110107/0000Z  30  16004KT  28.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110107/0300Z  33  18005KT  28.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110107/0600Z  36  20006KT  30.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110107/0900Z  39  23006KT  28.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110107/1200Z  42  26006KT  27.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110107/1500Z  45  27008KT  35.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110107/1800Z  48  27008KT  38.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110107/2100Z  51  26006KT  37.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110108/0000Z  54  28005KT  28.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110108/0300Z  57  32006KT  23.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110108/0600Z  60  30005KT  21.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110108/0900Z  63  28006KT  20.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110108/1200Z  66  27006KT  20.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110108/1500Z  69  28010KT  27.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110108/1800Z  72  28011KT  31.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110108/2100Z  75  28007KT  33.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110109/0000Z  78  32008KT  25.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110109/0300Z  81  29008KT  21.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110109/0600Z  84  28007KT  19.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110109/0900Z  87  29007KT  19.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110109/1200Z  90  29006KT  18.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110109/1500Z  93  33008KT  28.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110109/1800Z  96  32007KT  36.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype  SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
110109/2100Z  99  31004KT  35.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/0000Z 102  30003KT  25.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/0300Z 105  36004KT  26.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/0600Z 108  02004KT  23.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110110/0900Z 111  02004KT  23.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/1200Z 114  02004KT  24.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/1500Z 117  03005KT  31.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/1800Z 120  VRB02KT  34.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110110/2100Z 123  06003KT  33.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110111/0000Z 126  05004KT  29.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110111/0300Z 129  04005KT  28.9F  SNOW    11:1| 0.3|| 0.3    0.024|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110111/0600Z 132  03007KT  27.7F  SNOW    11:1| 0.4|| 0.7    0.039|| 0.06     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110111/0900Z 135  01008KT  26.6F  SNOW    11:1| 0.7|| 1.4    0.063|| 0.13     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110111/1200Z 138  36007KT  26.4F  SNOW    12:1| 0.5|| 1.9    0.047|| 0.17     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110111/1500Z 141  36008KT  27.5F  SNOW    19:1| 1.9|| 3.8    0.098|| 0.27     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110111/1800Z 144  35008KT  29.3F  SNOW    18:1| 1.5|| 5.3    0.087|| 0.36     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110111/2100Z 147  34006KT  30.0F  SNOW    13:1| 0.4|| 5.7    0.031|| 0.39     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110112/0000Z 150  33006KT  27.0F  SNOW    17:1| 0.6|| 6.3    0.035|| 0.43     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110112/0300Z 153  31006KT  26.4F  SNOW    11:1| 0.3|| 6.6    0.028|| 0.45     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110112/0600Z 156  31007KT  24.8F  SNOW     9:1| 0.1|| 6.7    0.008|| 0.46     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110112/0900Z 159  32006KT  26.2F  SNOW     8:1| 0.1|| 6.8    0.012|| 0.47     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110112/1200Z 162  32005KT  26.6F  SNOW     0:1| 0.0|| 6.8    0.012|| 0.48     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110112/1500Z 165  32005KT  30.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 6.8    0.000|| 0.48     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110112/1800Z 168  32005KT  34.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 6.8    0.000|| 0.48     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110112/2100Z 171  31003KT  33.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110113/0000Z 174  27004KT  25.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110113/0300Z 177  30004KT  22.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110113/0600Z 180  29005KT  21.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
======================================================================================================================

[rainstorm]

http://www.keyweb3.com/windsong/2011/01/jan-11-12-coastal-low/

DT says threat of 6+ is growing.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

http://www.keyweb3.com/windsong/2011/01/jan-11-12-coastal-low/

DT says threat of 6+ is growing.

yea the longer and stronger the first S/W is leads to a better phase job

[RIC Airport]

eehhh.... She has picked her spots fine with posting that stuff. She doesn't post "everything". It's just information and it's no different than someone posting a model graphic that we all have access to!

alright, fair enough.

[Coach McGuirk]

http://www.keyweb3.c...12-coastal-low/

DT says threat of 6+ is growing.

What is with you and DT?

Every post is "DT say..."

[rainstorm]

What is with you and DT?

Every post is "DT say..."

riding the hot hand.

[Coach McGuirk]

riding the hot hand.

of what?

You don't get credit for flip flopping a forecast you originally got correct.

[Martin]

I'll take a half an inch!

[SeanVA]

RIC FTW

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p48_144l.gif

[Midlo Snow Maker]

sweet gfs run

[SeanVA]

sweet gfs run

I am going to die of sleep deprivation because of this storm.

[Coach McGuirk]

I am going to die of sleep deprivation because of this storm.

It's way too far out for that yet. Besides, I already got my awesome winter. I'm perfectly happy.

[Suffolkweather]

0z gfs backed up and kind of mimics the nonsense it tried in Monday runs. Right when you think the gfs figured it out. Anyway Euro seems to have the best handle on the situation... My feeling anyway.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

incoming radar returns

[Ji]

incoming radar returns

wtf are you tracking?

[Coach McGuirk]

wtf are you tracking?

Not much.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

wtf are you tracking?

my 20% chance of flurries tonight

[Martin]

wtf are you tracking?

My half an inch

Overnight: A chance of snow after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday: Snow likely, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

[Coach McGuirk]

My half an inch

Overnight: A chance of snow after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday: Snow likely, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

This is a non event.

[Martin]

This is a non event.

True but its at least something!

[Midlo Snow Maker]

6z gfs

insane look at NC

[jlewis1111]

what does the euro show for tue as of 0z

[rainstorm]

shows this:

http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=144hr

further out to sea than gfs