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Richmond Metro/ Hampton roads obs/disco winter thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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I had -3 on my car thermometer in 2000 in Bon Air. If I recall correctly, the airport couldn't do it but Petersburg did go below 0. I heard -15 from numerous people in Hanover County, from Ashland to Beaverdam. Lots of nurseries/tree farms lost Foster hollies that year which is listed as hardy to zone 6a (-5 to -10), but has grown in 5b (-10 to -15). In town, those same plants were fine.

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I had -3 on my car thermometer in 2000 in Bon Air. If I recall correctly, the airport couldn't do it but Petersburg did go below 0. I heard -15 from numerous people in Hanover County, from Ashland to Beaverdam. Lots of nurseries/tree farms lost Foster hollies that year which is listed as hardy to zone 6a (-5 to -10), but has grown in 5b (-10 to -15). In town, those same plants were fine.

All of those listed in my previous post are from the airport.

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It's apparent that a rather noteworthy arctic outbreak may take place in long range period. In my opinion, severe arctic outbreaks are those that are responsible for official high temperatures below 20°F and low temperatures below 0°F at RIC. The two most recent episodes of this took place in early February 1996 and mid January 1994 when RIC's low temperature reached -2°F and -1°F respectively. Although the temperature reached -1°F on January 28, 2000, this was solely due to radiational cooling from an intense snowcover. The aforementioned occurrences as well as the January 1985 outbreak, when RIC had two consecutive nights below 0°F, were purely air mass driven. It will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves over the next week or two with a potential -EPO causing a cross polar flow as models and a few prominent mets seem to indicate.

The all time record low is -12°F and occurred because of snowcover in excess of 20" after a historic southeastern US snowstorm hit areas from ATL to DCA in late January 1940. The following are some recent below 0°F readings at Richmond. Since 1897, there have been a total of 37 occurrences.

-1°F January 28, 2000

-2°F February 5, 1996

-1°F January 19, 1994

-6°F January 21, 1985

-1°F February 11, 1979

-8°F February 10, 1979

-1°F January 17, 1977

-1°F January 22, 1970

High temperatures below 20°F are even less frequent with a total of 26 occurrences. The all-time lowest maximum temperature at RIC is 11°F set way back in February 1899 when observations took place at Chimborazo Park. These are the coldest daytime high temperatures at RIC since 1930 when observations for record began at the present airport site in Henrico County.

12°F January 19, 1994, January 9, 1970

14°F December 25, 1983, February 18, 1979

15°F January 21, 1985, February 9, 1934

16°F January 11, 1982

17°F January 17, 1977

18°F February 4, 1996, January 30, 1966, January 30, 1966, January 8, 1942

19°F December 22, 1989, January 18, 1977, January 26, 1961, February 17, 1958

I was looking back at the coldest days of the last 10 years, and it appears that January 25, 2004 wins as the high temperature at RIC was only 22°F.

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All of those listed in my previous post are from the airport.

Sorry, I missed that. My bad. But wasn't Petersburg colder? I distinctly remember listening to WRVA and a caller mentioned it and couldn't understand it. I think that was just before WRVA switched to TWC for their weather.

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:yikes: rain

TABULAR STATE FORECAST FOR VIRGINIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EST TUE JAN 4 2011

ROWS INCLUDE...
  DAILY PREDOMINANT DAYTIME WEATHER 6AM-6PM
  FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EARLY MORNING LOW/DAYTIME HIGH
        PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION NIGHTTIME 6PM-6AM/DAYTIME 6AM-6PM
         - INDICATES TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO
        MM INDICATES MISSING DATA


  RICHMOND
  SUNNY    PTCLDY   MOCLDY   PTCLDY   PTCLDY   PTCLDY   RAIN
  26/41    24/44    27/36    22/35    23/39    25/42    26/41
   00/00    00/10    30/30    30/10    10/10    10/10    30/50

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NWS Wakefield went with a mix of the 12GGEM/GFS but also says there is low confendence at this time so any track is possible, so they are playing it safe at this time

But we are talking about the clipper this Saturday. What's so risky about forecasting a clipper?

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wakefield:

THERE`S NO DOUBT WITH THIS DYNAMIC OF AN UPPER LOW DROPPING

SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY THAT MOST AREAS

WILL AT LEAST SEE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. HOWEVER...THIS COULD ALSO

BE A NUISANCE WINTER WX EVENT THAT CATCHES A LOT OF PEOPLE OFF

GUARD AND PRODUCES ACCUMULATING SNOW (1-3") ACROSS EASTERN VA AND

NE NC. CONFIDENCE ATTM IS TOO LOW TO ADVERTISE A WINTER WX EVENT

ON FRIDAY...BUT HAVE INCREASED TO CHC POPS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA

TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW SHOWERS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR

EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST. TRENDED HIGH

TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN QUICKLY. HIGHS

WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO NR 40 EAST.

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wakefield:

THERE`S NO DOUBT WITH THIS DYNAMIC OF AN UPPER LOW DROPPING

SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY THAT MOST AREAS

WILL AT LEAST SEE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. HOWEVER...THIS COULD ALSO

BE A NUISANCE WINTER WX EVENT THAT CATCHES A LOT OF PEOPLE OFF

GUARD AND PRODUCES ACCUMULATING SNOW (1-3") ACROSS EASTERN VA AND

NE NC. CONFIDENCE ATTM IS TOO LOW TO ADVERTISE A WINTER WX EVENT

ON FRIDAY...BUT HAVE INCREASED TO CHC POPS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA

TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW SHOWERS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR

EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST. TRENDED HIGH

TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN QUICKLY. HIGHS

WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO NR 40 EAST.

Sure, I'll take more snow.

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Looks nice for some surprise snow! BTW COACH, you're vodka is coming don't worry. Also, if I win Mega Millions tonight, I will buy you your own ABC Store with part of my $355 million! :snowman::drunk:

haha, Nice.

I lost that bet to Kevin, so I guess I'll send him some cigars if he'll PM me his address and brand. I'm not spending more than 20-25 bucks on them.

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