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Thanksgiving Weekend Lake-effect Snow

OSUmetstud

By OSUmetstud,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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WNYLakeEffect

WNYLakeEffect

Posted
Posted
630 PM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT SO FAR HAS BEEN VERY UNIMPRESSIVE OFF

ERIE. BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE IN OFF THE

LAKE...AND FLOW HAS BACKED SLIGHTLY PAST HOUR TO ALLOW ITS

NORTHERN EDGE TO LIFT TO ABOUT A DOWNTOWN BUF TO AIRPORT

LINE...BUT ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS AREA HAS BEEN QUITE LIGHT WITH A

FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO

SHOW INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION BY MID EVENING...BUT

UPSTREAM RADARS...ESP KCLE...SHOW A DRYING TREND...SO SIGNIFICANT

ACCUMULATIONS ARE APPEARING LESS LIKELY FOR BUF METRO AND ALL OF

NORTHERN ERIE...PERHAPS 1 TO 3 MAX...AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

WILL LEAVE ALL FLAGS AS IS FOR NOW AND ISSUE HOURLY SPS`S TO

DEFINE THE ACTIVITY...BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE MORE DRAMATIC CHANGES

IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE AROUND 10 PM IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

UPDATED POP AND TEMP GRIDS ALONG WITH AFM/PFM. NO OTHER CHANGES

AT THIS TIME.

LK ONTARIO ACTIVITY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED SO FAR TOO...BUT THEIR

ACTIVITY WAS NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO ORGANIZED THIS EARLY ANYWAY.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

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Posted

LOL......I'm sitting by my outdoor fire pit...but I like the hot tub idea a lot better :thumbsup:

You guys are psychic!! I just finished putting up all the outdoor X-mas lights/tree/ornaments/whatever :arrowhead: amongst a slight snowshower, then into the hot tub!! But the flakes have ended (thanks for the couple million flakes, L. Erie!! :thumbsup: ) and my wife and I were having a glass of wine under the stars :thumbsup::devilsmiley: )

Justin, I'm not sure the northern band will seperate from the lake. I think it stays birucated until we settle and align the winds a bit, and hopefully moisten up the aintecedent air a bit. But I agree, the southern band will have the better convergence (aid of shoreline friction) and the southtowns should crank up a bit.

Ontario probably has another 5 hours or so before intensification....and maybe a bit longer.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

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It looks like the Lake Erie band is beginning to "wiggle" a bit...perhaps an indication that the large scale flow is beginning to change. The fine line of higher reflectivities indicating the core of this skeletal lake band appears to have shifted south a bit over the far eastern end of the lake...but the part of the band farther west near Long Point may be nudging back to the north. Perhaps some kind of very very weak s/w feature passing through. Not sure if this is a significant observation or not...I guess we'll find out shortly.

And maybe...just maybe...the band is intensifying a BIT near metro Buffalo??

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kulaginman

kulaginman

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There's no question that the band has become better organized over the last 30-60 minutes...but I think the southward shift we're witnessing in Erie County is only temporary. It appears there is a subtle s/w crossing the area at the moment, but upstream radars indicate some backing to the flow in advance of a much stronger s/w currently traversing the upper Great Lakes. The band will probably lift back into the city and perhaps even the north town suburbs for a several-hour period late this evening, before sinking back into the south towns and eventually ski country well after midnight.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

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What a disaster, i go to work for couple of hours and only thing i saw was some light snow with windy conditions. I’m mad!:angry:

It's a razor-thin band at the moment, but I have a feeling it's snowing at a decent clip in South Buffalo, Lackawanna, and West Seneca. If the behavior of the band over the central part of Lake Erie is any indication, downtown BUF could experience its heaviest snowfall of the day (I know it wouldn't take much) around or perhaps a little after 10PM. Impossible to say how long it will last, though.

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ayuud

ayuud

Posted
Posted

It's a razor-thin band at the moment, but I have a feeling it's snowing at a decent clip in South Buffalo, Lackawanna, and West Seneca. If the behavior of the band over the central part of Lake Erie is any indication, downtown BUF could experience its heaviest snowfall of the day (I know it wouldn't take much) around or perhaps a little after 10PM. Impossible to say how long it will last, though.

the baseball stadium thermometer was @ 37f when i left :arrowhead:

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

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It's a razor-thin band at the moment, but I have a feeling it's snowing at a decent clip in South Buffalo, Lackawanna, and West Seneca. If the behavior of the band over the central part of Lake Erie is any indication, downtown BUF could experience its heaviest snowfall of the day (I know it wouldn't take much) around or perhaps a little after 10PM. Impossible to say how long it will last, though.

IMO, it's gonna be a close call for downtown BUF to get back into the core of the band....In my years of watching bands off both Erie and Ontario, once a band gets established along the shoreline, it takes a pretty good backing of the mean flow to move the band over land....so my guess is that if the s/w is fairly weak, we may just see a SLIGHT drift to the north over land...and a decent shift to the north over the water......ie an adjustment in orientation by 20 degrees or so.....but, I very well could be wrong. It'll be close nonetheless.

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ayuud

ayuud

Posted
Posted

..LAKE SNOWS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

AT 845 PM...THE LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED LAKE SNOW HAS BEGUN TO

CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE BAND WHICH EXTENDED FROM SOUTH BUFFALO

AND WEST SENECA TO ALDEN AND PEMBROKE. THIS BAND WAS STRENGTHENING

BACK OVER THE LAKE AND WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING NORTH AGAIN AS

WINDS BACK AHEAD OF A TROUGH. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR LAKE SNOWS TO

INTENSIFY AND DRIFT NORTH INTO THE CITY OF BUFFALO AND TOWARD THE

AIRPORT BY 10 PM. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE

UNTIL A WIND SHIFT PUSHES THE BANDS SOUTH AGAIN AROUND OR SHORTLY

AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOME AREAS JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO SUCH AS ALDEN, AKRON

AND PEMBROKE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES AND COULD PICK UP

ANOTHER INCH OR TWO BY MIDNIGHT.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

Thanks, but nothing has verified yet! ;)

I'm always a little hesitant about interpretating the models' southward movements over the Tug Hill area. In the past, they tend to move the band faster than what verifies, and this may end up the case. Generally speaking, it take a really good (>30 degree) wind shift in the surface-850 mean flow to "push" the band residing over the land, southward with any vigor. This many not happen until late Sat. evening/night, keeping most of the activity north of Oswego and Onieda Cos.

One caveat might be a secondary shoreline band that forms in response to the remnant vertical circulation pattern that becomes re-invigorated by the frictional convergence around Sodus point.

I certainly could see two distinct bands (with the northern one in Jeff. Co. being the stronger) for a 4-8 hr. period sometime tomorrow late morning into the afternoon, which may throw a couple inches down over the extreme western and northwestern part of Oswego Co.

VERY MUCH like depicted here back on Nov. 25, 2003:

1124tyx07.gif

Now (quite a bit earlier than I expected):

39616888.png

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