Thanksgiving Weekend Lake-effect Snow

[lakeeffectkid383]

As the great Mike Cejka has been pointing the past hour on channel 4 news in BUF, lake effect snows are already beginning south of Buffalo, theyre not heavy but lake snows wernt expected to develop untill 3pm at the earliest =] Could see a few inches during the day from this =]

[ayuud]

As the great Mike Cejka has been pointing the past hour on channel 4 news in BUF, lake effect snows are already beginning south of Buffalo, theyre not heavy but lake snows wernt expected to develop untill 3pm at the earliest =] Could see a few inches during the day from this =]

[BRLady]

As the great Mike Cejka has been pointing the past hour on channel 4 news in BUF, lake effect snows are already beginning south of Buffalo, theyre not heavy but lake snows wernt expected to develop untill 3pm at the earliest =] Could see a few inches during the day from this =]

It`s starting to snow in Watertown!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[WNYLakeEffect]

I like these maps:

Flurries right now. Hopefully I'll pick up several inches tomorrow as the bands move south.

[LakeEffectKing]

Looks like the main convergence may develop right over Buffalo....oscillate a bit, while gradually intensifying, then settle south this evening...If the ground is cold enough, could put out several inches in the metro area.

[ayuud]

Looks like the main convergence may develop right over Buffalo....oscillate a bit, while gradually intensifying, then settle south this evening...If the ground is cold enough, could put out several inches in the metro area.

hope so we are seeing light snow in the downtown area atm

[LakeEffectKing]

Stuff off Ontario is exploding too! Signs that this MAY be an overproducing event (earlier start....deeper cold)

Edit: I did notice that the Motague site switched modes, so it gave the percepton that we had "rapid" development....that said, things certainly look ahead of schedule.

[ayuud]

Stuff off Ontario is exploding too! Signs that this MAY be an overproducing event (earlier start....deeper cold)

Edit: I did notice that the Motague site switched modes, so it gave the percepton that we had "rapid" development....that said, things certainly look ahead of schedule.

is that precip east of toronto also LES? looks like its starting to organize

[sauss06]

Yall have any web cam links?

Thanks

[lakeeffectkid383]

Stuff off Ontario is exploding too! Signs that this MAY be an overproducing event (earlier start....deeper cold)

Edit: I did notice that the Motague site switched modes, so it gave the percepton that we had "rapid" development....that said, things certainly look ahead of schedule.

Hope this is an over achiever. This pic is from about 10 minutes ago. The snow has fallen steadily sinced then. The grass now has a good dusting all over.

[kulaginman]

30F with light snow here at the foot of the Boston Hills right now. So far just a light dusting, mainly on the mulch. The driveway was extremely slippery and my car door was frozen shut early this morning due to the rapid drop in temp following FROPA...a real flash freeze! In any event, I think the Lake Erie band will struggle to become very organized until very late this afternoon or early this evening when deeper moisture begins circulating into the region and crystal growth begins to improve.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Getting some little snow balls, but not quite graupel like stuff falling now.

[kulaginman]

Meso models are in astoundingly good agreement that the Boston Hills will be the jackpot location with this event. Too bad we're in for a warmup next week, cause this would really jump-start the season at KB:

[BRLady]

Meso models are in astoundingly good agreement that the Boston Hills will be the jackpot location with this event. Too bad we're in for a warmup next week, cause this would really jump-start the season at KB:

http://www.abay.com/ Here are some webcams from Alexandria Bay...Even though they say they dont work they do....Cool watching the clouds coming in off the lake...

[CNYWeather]

Yall have any web cam links?

Thanks

Barnes Corners -http://www.northernc...com/webcam.html

Lowville - http://www.jpweather.com/livecam.htm

Westmoreland - I'm too far south http://www.cnyweather.com/livecam.php

Watertown area http://www.h2omedia.com/

[WNYLakeEffect]

Looking NE across the lower end of Chautauqua Lake (in Lakewood):

http://www.eastlakewoodweather.com/camera50.html

At SUNY Fredonia:

http://www.fredonia.edu/reslife/webcam.asp

[sauss06]

Thanks for the links.

[DeltaT13]

Visible satellite shows a distinct wind shift halfway up Lake Erie....This is a good sign for those of us in Northern Erie county.....nice long fetch. Hopefully we'll get a couple hours on this trajectory.

Lake Erie Special

[kulaginman]

Just drove from Orchard Park to Blasdell and back via Route 219. The road was completely dry north of Armor Duells Road in Orchard Park...but from Armor Duells Road back to my parents' house the roads were wet/slushy with a bit of a coating on the grass/rooftops. Still holding at 30F here with very light snow.

[kulaginman]

Pic of my parents' front lawn:

[Andyace]

WKTV snowfall forecast

[Tornado Girl]

WKTV snowfall forecast

Looks just about right.

[ayuud]

Visible satellite shows a distinct wind shift halfway up Lake Erie....This is a good sign for those of us in Northern Erie county.....nice long fetch. Hopefully we'll get a couple hours on this trajectory.

Lake Erie Special

Walla!

"

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...

BANDS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE CONTINUING TO AFFECT AN AREA

FROM THE SOUTHTOWNS SOUTH INTO SKI COUNTRY. HOWEVER...A STRONGER

AREA OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...AND IS

EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE BUFFALO

METRO AREA AND SOME OF THE NORTHTOWNS AS WELL LATER THIS

AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN 2-3PM AND

CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS TOWARD 6 PM WILL RANGE

FROM A TRACE NORTH OF THE CITY...TO AS MUCH AS 3 OR 4 INCHES

TOWARD THE SOUTHTOWNS. AREAS IN GENESEE COUNTY CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3

INCHES WEST OF BATAVIA.

THE BAND SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE INTENSE BAND SHORTLY

AFTER SUNSET. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW RATES ON THE

ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND CAUSE TRAVEL

DIFFICULTIES. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS BAND WILL BE VERY CLOSE

TO THE CITY CENTER AND SKIM THE NORTHTOWNS...BEFORE MOVING TO THE

SOUTH OVERNIGHT."

[Tornado Girl]

Visible satellite shows a distinct wind shift halfway up Lake Erie....This is a good sign for those of us in Northern Erie county.....nice long fetch. Hopefully we'll get a couple hours on this trajectory.

Lake Erie Special

You can see the shift starting on Ontario

[kulaginman]

Still nothing spectacular to report here in Orchard Park...but our temp has dropped to 28F, so the snow is beginning to accumulate on paved surfaces. Here's how it looks as of 4PM:

[ayuud]

Still nothing spectacular to report here in Orchard Park...but our temp has dropped to 28F, so the snow is beginning to accumulate on paved surfaces. Here's how it looks as of 4PM:

Coating on grass here,no snow accumulation on main roads yet

[kulaginman]

Almost a dual-band structure beginning to show up here in WNY right now. The original band is currently impacting the immediate BUF metro area, but it appears that a secondary band may be starting to take shape along the southern shore of the lake...edging into southwestern Erie County. That secondary band will probably become the dominant band within the next 2-3 hours as the original band lifts north and loses its connection with the lake.

Having said that, a lack of moisture within the dendritic growth region is really killing us for the time being. The moisture was never really supposed to increase until this evening...so this certainly still has the potential to become a much more impressive band...but right now the flake size is very tiny, and I haven't even picked up an inch here in Orchard Park.

[Tornado Girl]

Almost a dual-band structure beginning to show up here in WNY right now. The original band is currently impacting the immediate BUF metro area, but it appears that a secondary band may be starting to take shape along the southern shore of the lake...edging into southwestern Erie County. That secondary band will probably become the dominant band within the next 2-3 hours as the original band lifts north and loses its connection with the lake.

Having said that, a lack of moisture within the dendritic growth region is really killing us for the time being. The moisture was never really supposed to increase until this evening...so this certainly still has the potential to become a much more impressive band...but right now the flake size is very tiny, and I haven't even picked up an inch here in Orchard Park.

It's about the same here...Things should get better in two or three hours

[Wx4cast]

It's about the same here...Things should get better in two or three hours

I have this picture of both Tornado Girl and Justin sitting in lawn chairs gazing westward towards their respective lakes watching every shift in the bands.

[kulaginman]

I have this picture of both Tornado Girl and Justin sitting in lawn chairs gazing westward towards their respective lakes watching every shift in the bands.

Not a lawn chair. Now I'm hitting the hot tub