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Thanksgiving Weekend Lake-effect Snow

OSUmetstud

By OSUmetstud,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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CNYWeather

CNYWeather

Posted
Posted

Lewis and Oswego Counties have Watches posted also.

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT

SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS: HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE

ONTARIO INCLUDING JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND NORTHERN OSWEGO

COUNTIES.

* TIMING: LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY

AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED ONE FOOT IN AREAS

WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERSISTS THE LONGEST.

* WINDS: WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40

MPH ARE EXPECTED PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES: VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES

IN VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* IMPACTS: HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY PRODUCE

VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND

NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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My forecast.

Some changes that were made from the preliminary forecast:

Lack of deep moisture and instability combined with somewhat marginal low-level temperatures will allow for the event to have a bit of topographical flavor. I don't expect very heavy snowfall rates...topping in the 1-2"/hr. range. In general, the placement of bands is similar to my earlier preliminary forecast but with amounts cut by 1/3.

post-36-0-58331300-1290640624.gif

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

My forecast.

Some changes that were made from the preliminary forecast:

Lack of deep moisture and instability combined with somewhat marginal low-level temperatures will allow for the event to have a bit of topographical flavor. I don't expect very heavy snowfall rates...topping in the 1-2"/hr. range. In general, the placement of bands is similar to my earlier preliminary forecast but with amounts cut by 1/3.

LMAO!! Did you use crayon, and then scan the image???? I freakin' love it!!!

j/k I'm sure it is some program I haven't seen yet, but it is cool! Brings back memories of the old "weatherman" on TV with a magnetic map or whiteboard with eraseable marker!!

Can't debate much with your call....looks quite reasonable at this lead time.

Edit: Upon closer look....maybe you DID hand draw that!! :stun: :stun:

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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LMAO!! Did you use crayon, and then scan the image???? I freakin' love it!!!

j/k I'm sure it is some program I haven't seen yet, but it is cool! Brings back memories of the old "weatherman" on TV with a magnetic map or whiteboard with eraseable marker!!

Can't debate much with your call....looks quite reasonable at this lead time.

colored pencils. I used the NYS topographical map to draw on...which make it easier to put the higher area on the elevated terrain too. I haven't drawn too much with paint...and I can draw pretty well free hand..it's better this way :D

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

colored pencils. I used the NYS topographical map to draw on...which make it easier to put the higher area on the elevated terrain too. I haven't drawn too much with pain...and I can draw pretty well free hand..it's better this way :D

I agree!! I find it to be MUCH easier to draw a snowfall map free hand - can't believe I haven't thought of doing this before :lol:

But getting back to the forecast, I think it's a very reasonable call. After a couple of fantasy runs at 18z yesterday and 00z last night, the models have definitely scaled back a bit. The gfs is giving us a pretty good shot of DPVA with the passage of a s/w after 06z Friday night, and if that happens I could see this band really going gangbusters for a few hours either side of midnight...that's probably the most likely timeframe for it to lift north into the metro and north town suburbs, too.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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I agree!! I find it to be MUCH easier to draw a snowfall map free hand - can't believe I haven't thought of doing this before :lol:

But getting back to the forecast, I think it's a very reasonable call. After a couple of fantasy runs at 18z yesterday and 00z last night, the models have definitely scaled back a bit. The gfs is giving us a pretty good shot of DPVA with the passage of a s/w after 06z Friday night, and if that happens I could see this band really going gangbusters for a few hours either side of midnight...that's probably the most likely timeframe for it to lift north into the metro and north town suburbs, too.

Yeah there is still a possibility that the heavier amounts could shift further north into central Erie county...it's so tough to forecast the difference between 5 or 10 degree band orientation, especially at this range.

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

My forecast.

Some changes that were made from the preliminary forecast:

Lack of deep moisture and instability combined with somewhat marginal low-level temperatures will allow for the event to have a bit of topographical flavor. I don't expect very heavy snowfall rates...topping in the 1-2"/hr. range. In general, the placement of bands is similar to my earlier preliminary forecast but with amounts cut by 1/3.

ROFLMAO. That's the Bermuda snowband/graphic, tool. AWESOME! I love it; it has character.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Not sure if you guys have downloaded the new version of BUFKIT, which allows you to look at SREFs...it's really neat, and I think it will be extremely useful in the days ahead! Check out the following website for download instructions:

http://wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BUFKIT/index.html

Fwiw, the SREF mean is depicting slightly higher values of CAPE and EL than the operational WRF during the upcoming event. Too bad I have to hit the sheets now (planning a 5:30AM departure for BUF in the morning) cause I'd love to play around with this for a couple hours!!

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Tornado Girl

Tornado Girl

Posted
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Not sure if you guys have downloaded the new version of BUFKIT, which allows you to look at SREFs...it's really neat, and I think it will be extremely useful in the days ahead! Check out the following website for download instructions:

http://wdtb.noaa.gov...FKIT/index.html

Fwiw, the SREF mean is depicting slightly higher values of CAPE and EL than the operational WRF during the upcoming event. Too bad I have to hit the sheets now (planning a 5:30AM departure for BUF in the morning) cause I'd love to play around with this for a couple hours!!

I have it...I've been playing around with for a little more than a week...

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Tornado Girl

Tornado Girl

Posted
Posted

Warning Date: 3:54 am EST on November 25, 2010

WarningSum:...Lake Effect Snow Warning In Effect From 3 Pm Friday To 7 Pm

Est Saturday...

Warning Message:The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a lake effect

snow warning...which is in effect from 3 PM Friday to 7 PM EST

Saturday. The lake effect snow watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations: heavy lake effect snow is possible east of Lake

Ontario including Jefferson...Lewis...and northern Oswego

counties.

* Timing: lake effect snow is expected to develop late Friday

afternoon and continue through Saturday evening.

* Accumulations: snow accumulations may exceed one foot in areas

where lake effect snow persists the longest.

* Winds: west to southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to

40 mph may produce blowing and drifting snow.

* Visibilities: visibilities may be reduced to near zero at

times in very heavy lake effect snow and blowing snow.

* Impacts: heavy lake effect snow and blowing snow may produce

very difficult travel conditions with snow covered roads and

near zero visibility at times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow

in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will

be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in

Road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio

or your favorite source of weather information for the latest

updates. Additional details can also be found at

www.Weather.Gov/Buffalo.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

I see it has started as snow in southwestern NY:

WELLSVILLE LGT SNOW 31 26 82 SE9G18 30.04R WCI 23

Clouds came in here after a mostly clear night so we are at only 24F now. I think today's forecast highs with be touch to achieve. Looks like all forms of precipitation tonight. :)

Looks like you're in for a little bit of snow TG.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

I see it has started as snow in southwestern NY:

WELLSVILLE LGT SNOW 31 26 82 SE9G18 30.04R WCI 23

Clouds came in here after a mostly clear night so we are at only 24F now. I think today's forecast highs with be touch to achieve. Looks like all forms of precipitation tonight. :)

Yep..trend closer to the LAMP data are the temps. Wouldn't be surprised if the WWA is extend to the HV south of 'toga.

New meso model delays precipstart to after midnight for most places but its also wetter too.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

NWS in ALB

BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY

THE BAND WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE UPPER

LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EAST AND THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORE

WESTERLY. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE OF

A 280 TO 300 FLOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECTOCCURRING THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WITH THE LAKE EFFECT PERIOD STILL ABOUT 36 HOURS AWAY...AND DUE TO

THE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE SNOW BAND AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH

THE ALY FORECAST AREA...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR ADVISORIES AT

THIS TIME. SNOW AMOUNT FORECASTS FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT

THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INDICATE ABOUT 2 TO 6 INCHES FROM THE WESTERN

ADIRONDACKS TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...THE SCHOHARIE

VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Things continue to look quite good for this event IMO. The 00z WRF has actually beefed up the QPF for the Lake Erie band...and I feel quite confident that the entire region from Buffalo/Cheektowaga southward into ski country will pick up a significant plowable snow from this event. Right now I'm thinking 3-6" in the immediate metro area...4-8" in the south towns...and 6-12" across southern Erie, northern Chautauqua, and northern Cattaraugus Counties with the 12" amounts most likely in the Boston Hills (probably somewhere near KB). The peak of the event looks to occur from 7PM tomorrow evening until 7AM Saturday morning. I'll try to put some kind of map together in the morning.

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Tornado Girl

Tornado Girl

Posted
Posted

The LES band looks to set-up around 3-4 pm and then intensify later tonight it looks to stay up here during tonight and Saturday morning.... before drifting south sometime tomorrow afternoon. Looks like I will be getting 12-15 maybe on the high side when all is said and done. With the winds drifting will be an issue for sure.:snowman:

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ayuud

ayuud

Posted
Posted

The LES band looks to set-up around 3-4 pm and then intensify later tonight it looks to stay up here during tonight and Saturday morning.... before drifting south sometime tomorrow afternoon. Looks like I will be getting 12-15 and maybe 18 inches on the high side when all is said and done. With the winds drifting will be an issue for sure.:snowman:

Gratz!:thumbsup::snowman:

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Tornado Girl

Tornado Girl

Posted
Posted

Being lazy (and not redrawing the map) my second call decreases amounts in the highest areas by 1-3" (so red areas are now 6-12")...and off Ontario, I think the yellow and red countours should be expanded northward to the St. Lawrence River. Should be a sharp cuttoff right at the border.

Your map looks spot on LES

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

Your map looks spot on LES

Thanks, but nothing has verified yet! ;)

I'm always a little hesitant about interpretating the models' southward movements over the Tug Hill area. In the past, they tend to move the band faster than what verifies, and this may end up the case. Generally speaking, it take a really good (>30 degree) wind shift in the surface-850 mean flow to "push" the band residing over the land, southward with any vigor. This many not happen until late Sat. evening/night, keeping most of the activity north of Oswego and Onieda Cos.

One caveat might be a secondary shoreline band that forms in response to the remnant vertical circulation pattern that becomes re-invigorated by the frictional convergence around Sodus point.

I certainly could see two distinct bands (with the northern one in Jeff. Co. being the stronger) for a 4-8 hr. period sometime tomorrow late morning into the afternoon, which may throw a couple inches down over the extreme western and northwestern part of Oswego Co.

VERY MUCH like depicted here back on Nov. 25, 2003:

1124tyx07.gif

112500.png

Similar at the lowest levels to today:

f06.gif

anthracite.gif

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