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Thanksgiving Weekend Lake-effect Snow

OSUmetstud

By OSUmetstud,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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ayuud

ayuud

Posted
Posted

One last picture to tease out any more anxiousness!!

This (low quality, first edition cell phone cameras) is from late Jan. 04.....Parish recieved 86" over 2.5 days. Here's Buffalo's archived link to that: http://www.erh.noaa....4/i/stormi.html

moresnow.png

reminds me of that dec 2001 LES outbreak lol,that's how the houses looked like with all that snow :arrowhead:

this was taken near the airport 2buzkm.jpg

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

12z WRF edges the band northward into downtown BUF and even the north town suburbs after 06z Friday night...through at least 15z Saturday morning. Definitely a more interesting scenario for the immediate BUF metro area. Perhaps the model is just now catching onto the impact of the lake-induced thermal trough?

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

12z WRF edges the band northward into downtown BUF and even the north town suburbs after 06z Friday night...through at least 15z Saturday morning. Definitely a more interesting scenario for the immediate BUF metro area. Perhaps the model is just now catching onto the impact of the lake-induced thermal trough?

geeze now i dont know if its better for me to be at my house in Amherst or my girlfriends in West Seneca/OP for this event. fml.:arrowhead:

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

I'm right in the 7-15 inch zone

Yep...I think your area is at or near the bullseye location, at this time....I think downtown will oscillate into the heaviest part of the band for a bit....but just south looks to be where the biggest totals will be. Off Ontario, it's a bit more complicated, due to the potential for the Erie band to interact with Ontario's own....tends to enhance snows a bit to the south of the Ontario band IF it holds together deep into it's penetration off Erie.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

Yep...I think your area is at or near the bullseye location, at this time....I think downtown will oscillate into the heaviest part of the band for a bit....but just south looks to be where the biggest totals will be. Off Ontario, it's a bit more complicated, due to the potential for the Erie band to interact with Ontario's own....tends to enhance snows a bit to the south of the Ontario band IF it holds together deep into it's penetration off Erie.

Wow awesome. Looks like I may not even have to chase this one, might just have to go outside the house to see thundersnow and 2"/hr snowfall rates. Id honestly be happy with 4 inches or more.
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Andyace

Andyace

Posted
Posted

I think "someone" forgot that L. Erie doesn't freeze until early Feb.!! Or (more likely) they are unknowledgeable about the tenacity and power of the lakes, which comes with early LES potentials. ......or they don't look at the models up this way! :arrowhead:

Am I correct in reading this as more potential snow for me?

f66.gif

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ayuud

ayuud

Posted
Posted

Yep...I think your area is at or near the bullseye location, at this time....I think downtown will oscillate into the heaviest part of the band for a bit....but just south looks to be where the biggest totals will be. Off Ontario, it's a bit more complicated, due to the potential for the Erie band to interact with Ontario's own....tends to enhance snows a bit to the south of the Ontario band IF it holds together deep into it's penetration off Erie.

never knew it was possible both Erie and Ontario bands to interact with each other :unsure:

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

Maps from 12z NAM212 upper left panel vertical velocity upper right panel 1000, 850, 700 winds (red, yellow, aqua respectively), lower right surface pressure and 3 HR total qpf, lower right 850 T, winds, contours, and qpf.

Time period from 63 hours thru 84 hours. The exact date and time for each of the panels is posted on the lower left panel upper left corner of the map.

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ayuud

ayuud

Posted
Posted

  • av-110.jpg
  • promet.png

Warn Status Warning level: 0%

Maps from 12z NAM212 upper left panel vertical velocity upper right panel 1000, 850, 700 winds (red, yellow, aqua respectively), lower right surface pressure and 3 HR total qpf, lower right 850 T, winds, contours, and qpf.

Time period from 63 hours thru 84 hours. The exact date and time for each of the panels is posted on the lower left panel upper left corner of the map.

is it me or the bands are a lil bit north?:unsure:

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

never knew it was possible both Erie and Ontario bands to interact with each other :unsure:

Very often they will. When Erie has an orientation of between 200-240, it can intersect the Ontario band (which "tries" to orient itself with it's major axis....ie W-E) over the lake somewhere between N. of Sodus Pt. and the E. shoreline near Sandy pond.

Here's one where they actually intersect inland, E. of L. Ontario:

tyxrad001.gif

Here's a loop where you can see an intermittent interaction:

KBUF%20Banana.gif

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted

I'm right in the 7-15 inch zone

Interesting map. I think one thing to note would be accumulations directly along the Erie Lakeshore. Many times there is a several mile strip that gets completely shut out in these type of events. For one, because the boundary layer temps are marginal along the lake this time of year. And secondly, because frictional convergence doesnt really create the upward forcing until further inland. I wouldnt be surprised if the Chautauqua ridge or Boston hills had nearly a foot while Fredonia or Dunkirk gets a sloppy inch or two. I still think there are several negatives going against this event....but I don't want to be a debbie downer so i'll wishcast with the rest of ya :whistle:

This image here isnt a perfect analog, but I could see something similar in regards to the snow off of Erie, except it would be shifted North 30-50 miles North.

post-912-0-84751900-1290630482.gif

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WNYLakeEffect

WNYLakeEffect

Posted
Posted
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

348 PM EST WED NOV 24 2010

NYZ012-019-020-085-250500-

/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.101125T0900Z-101125T1700Z/

/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.101126T1700Z-101128T0000Z/

WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...

ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE

348 PM EST WED NOV 24 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST

THURSDAY...

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM

TO NOON EST THURSDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN

ISSUED. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY

AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE

INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ERIE AND

WYOMING COUNTIES. FREEZING RAIN IS MOST LIKELY IN THE DEEPER

SHELTERED VALLEYS. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE

ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN ERIE

AND WYOMING COUNTIES.

* TIMING: THE FREEZING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK

ON THANKSGIVING AND LAST THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE

TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE

EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTEND THROUGH THE

DAY SATURDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPES: FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE

TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW

LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS: ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH

ARE EXPECTED IN SPOTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW

MAY EXCEED ONE FOOT IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SNOW PERSISTS THE

LONGEST.

* WINDS: WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40

MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY PRODUCING

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES: VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES

IN VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH SATURDAY.

* TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING LATE TONIGHT

AND THANKSGIVING MORNING IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS SETTING THE

STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN.

* IMPACTS: FREEZING RAIN MAY PRODUCE VERY SLIPPERY DRIVING

CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS LATE TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING

MORNING. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW LATER FRIDAY

AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL

CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT

TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF

WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE

WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT

SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS

POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN

ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

I'm happy that Buffalo's gone to the bulleted system.

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