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Thanksgiving Weekend Lake-effect Snow

OSUmetstud

By OSUmetstud,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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kulaginman

kulaginman

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I dont know wtf to do

My confidence is growing for a significant event downwind of Lake Erie...but there's still a nagging concern that the models will back off again as we get closer. Confidence is higher downwind of Lake Ontario, IMO...since there's probably a better chance of a deeper moist unstable layer up in that direction. Having said that, the relative short duration of this event will probably prevent truely eye-popping snowfall totals in any one location...unless we end up getting crazy heavy snowfall rates, but I'm not sure we'll have the type of instability required for that. Still, I'm sure the Tug will manage to get a foot. Not sure if this helps at all.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

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00z NAM shows extreme instability from 69 hours until the end of the run (84 hours)

LI CAPEs get over 1000 j/kg and LE ELs get up over 15Kft.

When the band is near or over the city on the NAM-WRF on BUFKIT:

Cap just below 650, delta around 22...almost pin straight alingnment, and pretty darn moist through the colum below the inversion.....we got ourselves a winning profile!!

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
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00z NAM shows extreme instability from 69 hours until the end of the run (84 hours)

LI CAPEs get over 1000 j/kg and LE ELs get up over 15Kft.

When the band is near or over the city on the NAM-WRF on BUFKIT:

Hmmm, that does look pretty good. Combine that instability with the band placement depicted on the 18z run, and I'd be one happy guy! But even if it does shift south as depicted on the 00z run, I'd probably still enjoy a ~4 hour period of ++SN.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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Cap just below 650, delta around 22...almost pin straight alingnment, and pretty darn moist through the colum below the inversion.....we got ourselves a winning profile!!

Oh yeah that's a winner for sure...pretty similar look to the Nov. 20 2000 "Gridlock Monday" Buffalo sounding.

However, there is still pretty glaring difference between the NAM and the GFS. Mid-level temperatures are significantly different. Thicknesses get down to about 522 dm on the GFS and 513 dm on the NAM.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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Hmmm, that does look pretty good. Combine that instability with the band placement depicted on the 18z run, and I'd be one happy guy! But even if it does shift south as depicted on the 00z run, I'd probably still enjoy a ~4 hour period of ++SN.

Classic omega crosshair on the overview too...-25 to -30 omega intersecting the snow crystal growth layer. It's a model sounding...but still pretty awesome to look at.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

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Oh yeah that's a winner for sure...pretty similar look to the Nov. 20 2000 "Gridlock Monday" Buffalo sounding.

However, there is still pretty glaring difference between the NAM and the GFS. Mid-level temperatures are significantly different. Thicknesses get down to about 522 dm on the GFS and 513 dm on the NAM.

Well it could be the obvious....that the finer resolution of the NAM is picking up on a pretty small, concentrated pool of cold air....one thing that will be interesting (and educational) will be to see how much the boundary layer of the airmass modifies and if there is any discernable increase in low level thicknesses, as it looks to traverse the great lakes region in a fashion that imparts the most thermal flux it possibly could...and being early in the season (ie warm water) we very well could end up with loads of T-Snow!

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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gfs_500_072l.gif

Well it could be the obvious....that the finer resolution of the NAM is picking up on a pretty small, concentrated pool of cold air....one thing that will be interesting (and educational) will be to see how much the boundary layer of the airmass modifies and if there is any discernable increase in low level thicknesses, as it looks to traverse the great lakes region in a fashion that imparts the most thermal flux it possibly could...and being early in the season (ie warm water) we very well could end up with loads of T-Snow!

Well here is the difference at 72 hours...you can see the upper level low is closer to BUF along with more stretching to the southeast.

nam_500_072l.gif

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kulaginman

kulaginman

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I can't believe there is even a remote possibility of this happening when I'm actually going to be home. As I was telling you guys last winter, I've had extraordinarily back luck with snow over the last decade or so...I just never seem to be in the right place at the right time. And while this probably won't end up being a blockbuster, I'd happily settle for a 2-3 hour blitz of 3"/hr snowfall rates. Anyway, not getting my hopes up too much. In the world of LES, much can and probably will change between now and Friday.

At the very least, it's nice to be engaged in this thread once again. I'm sure I'll jump in here for many of your LES discussions this season, even though I will likely be a distant observer beyond this weekend!

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

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I can't believe there is even a remote possibility of this happening when I'm actually going to be home. As I was telling you guys last winter, I've had extraordinarily back luck with snow over the last decade or so...I just never seem to be in the right place at the right time. And while this probably won't end up being a blockbuster, I'd happily settle for a 2-3 hour blitz of 3"/hr snowfall rates. Anyway, not getting my hopes up too much. In the world of LES, much can and probably will change between now and Friday.

At the very least, it's nice to be engaged in this thread once again. I'm sure I'll jump in here for many of your LES discussions this season, even though I will likely be a distant observer beyond this weekend!

Once an LES lover......always an LES lover!! It'll be in your blood the rest of your life! You'll stand by a river in some unknown locale wondering, just wondering if somehow the winds would blow perfectly down the length of it....to just spit out a flake or two!! :thumbsup::snowman:

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ENYsnow

ENYsnow

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I can't believe there is even a remote possibility of this happening when I'm actually going to be home. As I was telling you guys last winter, I've had extraordinarily back luck with snow over the last decade or so...I just never seem to be in the right place at the right time. And while this probably won't end up being a blockbuster, I'd happily settle for a 2-3 hour blitz of 3"/hr snowfall rates. Anyway, not getting my hopes up too much. In the world of LES, much can and probably will change between now and Friday.

At the very least, it's nice to be engaged in this thread once again. I'm sure I'll jump in here for many of your LES discussions this season, even though I will likely be a distant observer beyond this weekend!

Good luck with the snow chances this weekend hopefully you can get in on an intense band! Its always nice to have another experienced mets input in this thread even if your part of the new england crew now.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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If this verifies for another run or 2 and I can get a roof over my head with friends in Buffalo... I am sooo coming up there. I have never seen lake effect before. Let alone super powdery snow.

Given the time of year...the warmth of the low-levels and the warmth of the lakes I wouldn't expect the snow to be very powdery...probably in the 10:1 to 15:1 range.

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WeatherTree

WeatherTree

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Looking for a couple people to throw down on a room in Mayville, NY Friday 1pm through Saturday 11pm if anyone is interested, should only cost 30 to 40 dollars each. 2 of us are coming up from SW Ohio, if you are interested in tagging along or meeting us there, PM me tonight or in the morning and can exchange numbers for more details. Thanx

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ayuud

ayuud

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NWS BUF

"

COLDER AIR WILL POUR IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION TOWARDS

DAYBREAK...WITH SOME OF THE PCPN CHANGING TO WET SNOW. THIS SHOULD

ONLY BE A FACTOR THOUGH FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. NO SNOW

ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ON BLACK FRIDAY...THE OCCLUSION WILL RACE AWAY TO OUR EAST WHILE H85

TEMPS WILL PLUMMET FROM AN AVERAGE OF ZERO C AT DAYBREAK TO -10C BY

LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST WILL BE THE SYNOPTIC

MOISTURE PLUME...BUT WITH LAKE DELTA T`S EXCEEDING 20C BY LATE

AFTERNOON...EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL SET UP OVER THE LAKES. LICAPES

ARE PROJECTED TO REACH 750 J/KG OR MORE WITH A CAP UP OVER 12K FT.

SFC BASED RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION WILL HELP TO `HOLD

ABCK` THE LAKE EFFECT FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT AS THAT RIDGING MOVES

EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD SET UP IN EARNEST

EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

FOR LK ERIE...A 250-260 FLOW WILL FAVOR A PLUME THAT WILL LIKELY

EXTEND FROM THE LAKE SHORE OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE

COUNTY TO WYOMING COUNTY. GUIDANCE PACKAGES THE PAST FEW RUNS HAVE

BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE AXIS OF THE BAND JUST SOUTH

OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA...WITH SITES FROM THE SOUTHTOWNS TO THE

BOSTON HILLS BEING IN THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

FOR LK ONTARIO...A SIMILAR FLOW WILL TAKE AIM ON JEFFERSON AND LEWIS

COUNTIES...BASICALLY BETWEEN THE TUG AND WATERTOWN/CARTHAGE.

DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PLUMES SHOULD INTENSIFY DUE

TO INCREASED SHORELINE CONVERGENCE. THE ACTIVITIY IS EXPECTED TO

SETTLE JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE INITIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON

POSITIONS...WITH SRN ERIE COUNTY/NRN CHAUT AND CATT COUNTIES BEING

THE FOCUS FOR LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TUG HILL WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR

LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO GIVE SNOW ACCUMULATION

ESTIMATES AND EVEN EARLY FOR ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS

PROBABLY SAFE TO SAY THAT PLOWABLE ACCUMUATIONS ARE LIKELY.

GIVEN THE RELATIVE `WARMTH` OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER...THE HEIGHT

OF THE CAP...AND CLIMATOLOGY...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE PLUMES

WILL GENERATE SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. ANY THUNDER AND LIGHTNING

WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GRAUPEL AND/OR SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING

2 INCHES/HR.

AS THE DEEP PARENT H5 LOW CROSSES QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL

FLOW WILL BECOME W/NW WITH THE SNOWBANDS FORECAST TO DROP A LITTLE

FURTHER SOUTH. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE

SNOWBELTS EAST OF BOTH LAKES SATURDAY.

ALONG WITH THE LAKE SNOW...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED

LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADD TO ANY

PROBLEMS AS BLOWING SNOW COULD BECOME A PROBLEM.":arrowhead::snowman:

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kulaginman

kulaginman

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06z WRF has backed off on the intensity of the band, but has shifted north wrt its placement once again. Ski country gets a period of snow Friday afternoon into Friday evening, then the band lifts north after 03z where it remains into mid-morning Saturday. Never quite makes it downtown, but it would probably yield a significant accumulation as close as South Buffalo. Take it for what its worth!

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ayuud

ayuud

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06z WRF has backed off on the intensity of the band, but has shifted north wrt its placement once again. Ski country gets a period of snow Friday afternoon into Friday evening, then the band lifts north after 03z where it remains into mid-morning Saturday. Never quite makes it downtown, but it would probably yield a significant accumulation as close as South Buffalo. Take it for what its worth!

Rob Hamilton from nws buf posted this on wivb's weather blog

"

Ayuud…it certainly does look like a close call for Buffalo, but I would be more excited if I lived south of the city (nr or south of Rt 20).

Friday afternoon through Saturday is looking more and more interesting as several guidance packages (GEM, NAM, GFS, SREF) are now more consistent with each other and also from to run in regards to the upcoming lake effect event. It is now to the point where the question is not whether a shovelable/plowable snow will take place…but WHERE it will take place.

For the past couple of days…at least half of the guidance has suggested that a Lake Erie plume would develop on a 240-250 flow Friday afternoon and try to hold in place through the first half of Friday night. This would place a portion of the Buffalo suburbs (Srn/Ern) within the steadiest snow. Supporting this solution is climatology that Lake Erie snowbands early in the season tend to lift further north due to increased backing of the low level winds. This backing of the winds is brought about by the thermal troughing induced by the ‘warmth’ of the lake.

On the other hand though, the NAM…which has a fairly high resolution of 12km…has been keeping the axis of a lake plume south of Buffalo. One would think that the higher resolution model would be able to account for the thermal troughing and would thus be more realistic. Then again, the thermal troughing and the effects of such may be dealt with more by the various physics packages within the model rather than the vertical/horizontal resolution. Maybe ‘Z’ can comment on that.

Speaking of the NAM…the bulk of the SREF ensemble members also keep the plume south of the city, but caution has to be given to these members as they largely consist of lower resolution NAM and GFS model runs.

Since this will be an early season event, there will be the likelihood of some thunder and lightning as well. The highest chance for this will come early in the vent when graupel may be most common. If you experience some graupel, be on the alert for lightning/thunder within 10-15 mins.

Time to start crossing those fingers…"

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
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I would say I'm in a pretty good spot to pick up at least a few inches of lake snow from this event especally if the band sets up a bit north of the model progs which happens pretty often in early season events such as this one , when the waters are warm. I'd be happy with a lake snow advisory and seeing 3-4 inches.

post-1351-0-77240500-1290607878.jpg

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

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Maps from 06z NAM212 upper left panel vertical velocity upper right panel 1000, 850, 700 winds (red, yellow, aqua respectively), lower right surface pressure and 3 HR total qpf, lower right 850 T, winds, contours, and qpf.

Time period from 66 hours thru 84 hours. The exact date and time for each of the panels is posted on the lower left panel upper left corner of the map.

Looking pretty good for the Tug and parts of Lewis County and I wouldn't be surprised if BUF-Metro does well, too.

Could also be some upslope snows for parts of the Catskills, Heldebergs, and Taconics, Berkshires, too. On Saturday

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