kulaginman Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Sigh no chance for metro huh Given the fickle nature of LES, I wouldn't rule out a significant event anywhere in WNY right now...except for perhaps the immediate Lake Ontario counties. All it'll take is an unexpected s/w to back the flow by 10-20 degrees for a few hours to yield a significant accumulation northward to the city or even the north town suburbs. And at this time of year, it isn't terribly uncommon for lake bands to end up farther north than depicted by numerical guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I thought it was bizzare the people were giving up 3 days before the event. 700mb moisture ftw. Well, given the lead time and the last day's worth of trends in all the models, I'll admit that my zeal had diminished substantially....lesson learned! That said, we aren't talking about a total reversal, back to the peak of the models' outputs a few days ago....but they have come back enough to get pretty interesting! Now that we are closer to the event, confidence has to go up substantially from where one would have had 3 days ago (that an event will happen) just given the model accuracy gain that comes with shorter leads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Given the fickle nature of LES, I wouldn't rule out a significant event anywhere in WNY right now...except for perhaps the immediate Lake Ontario counties. All it'll take is an unexpected s/w to back the flow by 10-20 degrees for a few hours to yield a significant accumulation northward to the city or even the north town suburbs. And at this time of year, it isn't terribly uncommon for lake bands to end up farther north than depicted by numerical guidance. Lake induced thermal pressure field = BUF ftw!!! Let's see what the mean boundary layer temps verify as. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 The strong boundary layer flow could also allow this potential lake band to penetrate well inland, bringing locally +SN to areas that typically don't benefit from Lake Erie. This is the 3hr QPF between 21z Friday and 00z Saturday, according to the 18z high resolution WRF. If this verifies, this could be an advisory-criteria event all the way to ROC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Just checking out the 12z ECMWF...still pretty lackluster for lake-effect potential downwind of Lake Erie on Friday. Sounding is very dry. It is still showing a pretty decent event east and southeast of Lake Ontario Friday night through Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 The strong boundary layer flow could also allow this potential lake band to penetrate well inland, bringing locally +SN to areas that typically don't benefit from Lake Erie. This is the 3hr QPF between 21z Friday and 00z Saturday, according to the 18z high resolution WRF. If this verifies, this could be an advisory-criteria event all the way to ROC: LES Inland Penetration It's like grasping straws but here is a ppt presentation regarding favorable parameters for inland penetration of LES bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 It's like grasping straws but here is a ppt presentation regarding favorable parameters for inland penetration of LES bands. I think you forgot to attach the ppt....?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Worth posting this time of year (again) but here is a couple sites Uticawx posted a few years back: http://www.lightecho.net/les/ http://kkd.ou.edu/METR%202603/Lake-Effect%20Snow%20Storms.PPT#345,17,Basic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Worth posting this time of year (again) but here is a couple sites Uticawx posted a few years back: http://www.lightecho.net/les/ http://kkd.ou.edu/ME...PT#345,17,Basic Hope you have your shovel waxed up. When you get that flip from rain to snow it will help slide the snow paste off. Enjoy the holiday and the snow! Don't think this would work up there by you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I think you forgot to attach the ppt....?? DOH. I think its there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 For viewing pleasure as our LES dreams roll!! A brief let up: About 60" in the bank....Time for a second roof shovel/raking: About 6 hours of this!!! Snowfall rates of up to 7"/hr......BUT with all the other fluff under it, toward the end of this burst, snowfall SETTLING RATES were about 1.5"/hr.!!! And the aftermath of 127" over 6 days and 3 (or was it 4) snow removals from my roof (and it had settled ALOT when this was taken: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Awesome photos, thanks for sharing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 nice photos LEK us folk away from the lakes will be living through you guys until we get a nice synoptic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I'll let the western NY guys throw in the epic shots from the 2 snow blitz's in Buffalo over the last 15 years!! Some of those pictures match or top what I have in my photo bank!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I'll let the western NY guys throw in the epic shots from the 2 snow blitz's in Buffalo over the last 15 years!! Some of those pictures match or top what I have in my photo bank!! pftt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 nice photos LEK us folk away from the lakes will be living through you guys until we get a nice synoptic storm. Really hoping this is the year for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Me too. The pattern as of late wouldn't seem that way but its still very early. Things are definitely looking better as far as large scale potential heading into early december but In the meantime im rooting for a nice LES event this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 I think Ill put out an updated forecast tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I think Ill put out an updated forecast tomorrow. Yeah, some of the longer range, tighter grid models will come into range.....this global BS of flopping the synoptic setup is painful....especially the first one of the season! I think we all be antsy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Thicknesses getting down to 513dm on the NAM suggest that it is trending towards a significantly deeper unstable layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Growing increasingly intresting around here. Hoping I might see at least an advisory event here in West Seneca,NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Growing increasingly intresting around here. Hoping I might see at least an advisory event here in West Seneca,NY my parents just moved there a few months ago. I grew up in Northwest Buffalo (Riverside). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Growing increasingly intresting around here. Hoping I might see at least an advisory event here in West Seneca,NY Nice avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherTree Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 my parents just moved there a few months ago. I grew up in Northwest Buffalo (Riverside). it's technically on the west side though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 it's technically on the west side though Idk about that... North Buffalo is the Hertel Avenue area It says Northwest Buffalo right on big sign over there. Northwest Buffalo includes Riverside and Blackrock..everything else further south is considered the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Nice avatar Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 00z WRF hammers the south towns between 21z Friday and 00z Saturday...then shifts the band south where it cranks out +SN in ski country before slowly weakening after 09z Saturday. My location doesn't do as well this run, but it's much better for the more "traditional" snowbelt locations of northern Chautauqua and southern Erie Counties. I'm sure even this won't end up being the final solution, but it's encouraging that the model hasn't really backed off on the idea of a heavy Lake Erie snowband. My optimism is growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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