Landscaper Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Thank you, like I said I will be happy with ground whitening. Not on my honeymoon yet, I was supposed to get married on 1-1-11 but my father inlaw was diagnosed with terminal cancer in June and we moved the date up because of his health. My wife was well aware coming in, of my weather ocd. Congrats and sorry at the same time. I lost my father-in-law too soon. After 20+ years I can honestly say it marriage was my best decision of my life. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Sigh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Thank you, like I said I will be happy with ground whitening. Not on my honeymoon yet, I was supposed to get married on 1-1-11 but my father inlaw was diagnosed with terminal cancer in June and we moved the date up because of his health. My wife was well aware coming in, of my weather ocd. Well congrats on the wedding and all the best to all of you including the health of your father-in-law. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Congrats and sorry at the same time. I lost my father-in-law too soon. After 20+ years I can honestly say it marriage was my best decision of my life. Good luck! Thank you for your kind words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Well congrats on the wedding and all the best to all of you including the health of your father-in-law. Thank you for your kind words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I am an inventor and self employed, I am always at the computer and this weather vice I have is an escape for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I think Delta was mainly referring to Lake Erie. The gfs has very negligible QPF in that part of the state, probably due to a lack of moisture in the dendritic growth layer. The delta-T's aren't quite as high as they are over Lake Ontario, and the inversion height may be slightly lower...but it looks to me as if moisture is the big limiting factor. Again, this is taking the gfs ver batim...so I'm not sure I'm buying into it. Ginman is right, I am more focused on Erie than Ontario. Its my typical bias around here. The whole setup is just looking a little dicey right now...and the models are trending in the wrong direction for us. I've seen real nice setups completely bust due to insufficient low level moisture many times over the years. Were still a ways out...time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Ginman is right, I am more focused on Erie than Ontario. Its my typical bias around here. The whole setup is just looking a little dicey right now...and the models are trending in the wrong direction for us. I've seen real nice setups completely bust due to insufficient low level moisture many times over the years. Were still a ways out...time will tell. The moisture does seem to deepen from Friday night into the weekend, but by that time the flow has turned W/WNW which would focus any legit LES well south of BUF. I still think the Chautauqua Ridge could pull off a solid event, and there could be a light accumulation up to my parent's house due to a bit of upsloping. Like you said, we still have a few days to watch this, so we'll see. My main question right now is do I: 1) leave Boston at 6PM Wednesday, and fight travel day traffic all the way back to Buffalo Wednesday night, probably not getting home until 1AM or later, or 2) leave super early Thanksgiving morning and risk running into a light wintry mix on the way. Could be a lousy drive home either way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 slip sliding away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The moisture does seem to deepen from Friday night into the weekend, but by that time the flow has turned W/WNW which would focus any legit LES well south of BUF. I still think the Chautauqua Ridge could pull off a solid event, and there could be a light accumulation up to my parent's house due to a bit of upsloping. Like you said, we still have a few days to watch this, so we'll see. My main question right now is do I: 1) leave Boston at 6PM Wednesday, and fight travel day traffic all the way back to Buffalo Wednesday night, probably not getting home until 1AM or later, or 2) leave super early Thanksgiving morning and risk running into a light wintry mix on the way. Could be a lousy drive home either way... Heres my call:dusting to 1"- Buffalo Northtowns(Amherst,Clarence,Williamsville,Tonawanda) 1-2" Downtown 2-4" Immediate southtowns (Lackawanna,West Seneca) 3-5" More distant Buffalo southtowns (Orchard Park,Hamburg,Boston,Colden) 5-8" Ski country (Chataqua Ridge, Ellicottville,Springville) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Latest WRF is actually developing a band of LES right over the BUF metro late Friday. It is the WRF 80+ hours out so it should probably be taken with a grain of salt, but it is interesting to see a SW flow through the boundary layer at that time with no sign of any mechanism that would cause veering of the llvl winds beyond 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherTree Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Latest WRF is actually developing a band of LES right over the BUF metro late Friday. It is the WRF 80+ hours out so it should probably be taken with a grain of salt, but it is interesting to see a SW flow through the boundary layer at that time with no sign of any mechanism that would cause veering of the llvl winds beyond 84 hours. The NAM is more favorable for lake-effect at 84 hours than the GFS in general anyway. The 500mb low isn't as tightly wound and the inversion appears higher. 1000-500mb thicknesses are around 6dm lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 all i want is coating lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Me too Ayuud, Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Wasn't somebody gonna do a first guess map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Latest WRF is actually developing a band of LES right over the BUF metro late Friday. It is the WRF 80+ hours out so it should probably be taken with a grain of salt, but it is interesting to see a SW flow through the boundary layer at that time with no sign of any mechanism that would cause veering of the llvl winds beyond 84 hours. Do you have a link Justin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Do you have a link Justin? It's the NAM at 84 hours...don't take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Do you have a link Justin? When this model is correct with the overall synoptic pattern, it is an incredibly useful tool: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The 18z run is much more aggressive, fwiw. Really hammers the BUF south towns from Friday afternoon through at least 06z Saturday...and probably beyond. Solid warning-criteria event with strong winds being another concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The 18z run is much more aggressive, fwiw. Really hammers the BUF south towns from Friday afternoon through at least 06z Saturday...and probably beyond. Solid warning-criteria event with strong winds being another concern. Sigh no chance for metro huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The 18z run is much more aggressive, fwiw. Really hammers the BUF south towns from Friday afternoon through at least 06z Saturday...and probably beyond. Solid warning-criteria event with strong winds being another concern. Well geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Well geez The wonderful world of lake effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 updated nws hwo “THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF THE SEASON MAY BE ON THE WAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR AND POSSIBLY SET THE STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. IT REMAINS FAR TOO EARLY FOR ANY DETAILS ON EXACT LOCATION OR ACCUMULATIONS. IN ADDITION TO SNOW…THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.” Long range.. “THE NAM AND GFS 12Z RUNS ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. WE WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE FASTER GFS. EVEN WITH THE FASTER GFS THOUGH WE PROBABLY WON`T HAVE DEEP ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBILITIES UNTIL FRIDAY. STEERING WINDS WILL FAVOR AREAS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES BOTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC ACCUMULATIONS BUT LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. KEEP ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS ON THIS SUBJECT. EVEN OUTSIDE THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON DRIVING…ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherTree Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z GFS also coming in 80miles further SE with H5 circulation and more moisture. Great east of Ontario and "better" in SW NY/NW PA http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p36_102l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Love the scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 The 18z run is much more aggressive, fwiw. Really hammers the BUF south towns from Friday afternoon through at least 06z Saturday...and probably beyond. Solid warning-criteria event with strong winds being another concern. I thought it was bizzare the people were giving up 3 days before the event. 700mb moisture ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 not a bad look on BUFKIT on the 18z GFS. Winds are too strong in the column for my liking. RH on this past run has really increased and that looks nice. The map there on the top left shows where the band is most likely to be...and the tab on the bottom left shows the lake-effect instability parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 not a bad look on BUFKIT on the 18z GFS. Winds are too strong in the column for my liking. RH on this past run has really increased and that looks nice. The map there on the top left shows where the band is most likely to be...and the tab on the bottom left shows the lake-effect instability parameters. windows xp ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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