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Thanksgiving Weekend Lake-effect Snow

OSUmetstud

By OSUmetstud,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

LES Advisory is now up for Northern Oneida County until 4pm

May not last long, but when it swings through, it should be a good slap to any drivers on the road.....no residual salt (ie first snow of the season), no snowbanks, 1st season snow driver inadequacies, and a band that appears to be tightening it's convergence zone...(maybe 3"/hr. stuff??) Lot's of tow truck calls to come I'm afraid...

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Tornado Girl

Tornado Girl

Posted
Posted

From the 06z 27 Nov NAM and GFS. TSEC for The Tug. NAM looks better in terms of VV in snowgrowth region . Winds look to shift north of west by early to mid-aftn 1-4 pm. GFS has less favorable VV in snowgrowth and lower moisture and tries to shift the band south a few hours sooner late AM early PM.

NAM:

GFS:

Looks nice...The band will weaken a bit today as it moves south. The air will be a little dry and the 850 mb temp will be warming up.. But as more moisture move in it should intensify later and move back north tomorrow.

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Revracer800

Revracer800

Posted
Posted

Paul from the northern chateau webcam is saying anywhere from 10-16" on the ground at his camp. His measuring stick needs to be adjusted. He post alot of info over at trailconditions.com it's a snowmobile trails website. It currently is snowing like a mofo up there now going by the cam.

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Andyace

Andyace

Posted
Posted

Lake Effect Snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY953 AM EST SAT NOV 27 2010NYZ009-272100-/O.NEW.KBGM.LE.Y.0011.101127T1500Z-101127T2100Z/NORTHERN ONEIDA-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BOONVILLE953 AM EST SAT NOV 27 2010...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THISAFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKEEFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THISAFTERNOON.A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS LATETHIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND WITH SNOWACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

Paul from the northern chateau webcam is saying anywhere from 10-16" on the ground at his camp. His measuring stick needs to be adjusted. He post alot of info over at trailconditions.com it's a snowmobile trails website. It currently is snowing like a mofo up there now going by the cam.

Heaviest stuff going through Barnes Corners right now.

qH8BcL.gif

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NYWx

NYWx

Posted
Posted

Nice write up by NESDIS

http://www.ssd.noaa....1011271539.html

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/27/10 1539Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1515Z JS

.

LOCATION...WESTERN NEW YORK...

.

ATTN WFOS...ALY...BGM...BUF...

ATTN RFCS...NERFC...

.

EVENT...LAKE BAND OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO INTENSIFYING FOR A BRIEF TIME.

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC FLOW

AROUND VORTEX OVER EASTERN CANADA HAS ALIGNED ITSELF FAVORABLY AT THIS

TIME TO ALLOW FOR A CONNECTION TO BOTH LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY TO

OCCUR. BANDS APPEAR TO BE VIRTUALLY MERGING OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH GOOD

FETCH LINED UP ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LAKE. ANALYSIS OF RECENT RUC

DATA IN BUFKIT REVEALS AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DELTA-T'S OF

27 AND 17 FROM 700MB-SFC AND 850MB-SFC RESPECTIVELY. THE LAKE INDUCED

EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AND THE HEIGHT OF THE CAPPING INVERSION APPEAR TO BE

SIMILAR WHICH ALLOWS FOR A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH OF

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 3.5KM. HOWEVER, CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE

BOTTOMED OUT AT ONLY AROUND -25C WITHIN THE PLUME OVER THE LAKE WHICH

ISN'T ALLOWING FOR MUCH OVERSHOOTING OF THE EL, ASSUMING THE SOUNDING IS

CORRECT. ALL OF THE FACTORS LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO POTENTIAL BRIEF 2-3"/HR

ESTIMATED RATES WITHIN THE CORE OF THE BAND WHICH IS CURRENTLY DIRECTED

INTO S JEFFERSON/N OSWEGO/LEWIS/HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES. HOWEVER, THE

BAND IS MOVING STEADILY TO THE SE AND THE SFC TEMPS ARE MARGINAL IN SOME

SPOTS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LOWER SOME OF THE ACTUAL ACCUMULATING TOTALS.

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-1800Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT

TERM OUTLOOK...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RATHER STRONG VORT JUST JUST N

OF N NY STATE ROTATING TO THE ESE WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR BRIEF FAVORABLE

BAND ALIGNMENT AND INTENSIFICATION. PER RECENT SATELLITE/COMPOSITE

RADAR ANIMATIONS, EXPECT THE BAND TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE S AND

E DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND 18Z OR SO AS

THE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE TROF BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Nice! Beginning of Dec. looks like we can continue to stay interested in potentials. I like the models tendency to back a strong storm off the coast next week or so. Strong blocking ftw! Let's hope that holds. Nevertheless, LES will continue to be a strong possibility at times for the next few weeks. :thumbsup::snowman:

Think you can arrange one for when I'm home next at Christmas??? :guitar:

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weathernut1024

weathernut1024

Posted
Posted

I have learned not to get my hopes up to high for snow because it used to really drive me nuts. I have 5 snowmobiles and it takes money to run and maintain them and it seems like every winter we have these issues with getting things started.

that's one of the my main reasons I don't have a snowmobile. Motorcycles are easy to maintain..:bike:

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weathernut1024

weathernut1024

Posted
Posted

I was googling to see if I could find a chart of the Delta-T Lake Index that I have in the office. So far no luck but I did "discover" these 2 nuggets for LES forecasting. Maybe of interest to newbies in particular:

Griffiss AFB Lake-Effect Snow Study and Lake Effect Snow Forecasting for Southern Lake Michigan

both links are to PDF files so you'll need a PDF reader.

Here is some more info on LES:

Lake Effect Snow

Lake Effect Snow Forecasting Page

awesome, thanks..

:bike:

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ayuud

ayuud

Posted
Posted

AT NOON A BROAD AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS THE COUNTIES

BORDERING THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORE LINE. THE ACTIVITY WILL

CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH OF THE

THRUWAY WILL EXPERIENCE THE SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 2 PM, WITH AREAS

FARTHER SOUTH AFTER THEN. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT ABOUT 1 TO 2

INCHES OF FRESH SNOW AS THE SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. WESTERLY WINDS

GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH WILL COMBINE TO CREATE POOR DRIVING

CONDITIONS, WITH LOW VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW.:thumbsup: thx Ontario :P

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

Seems highly unlikely, I think we're seeing the death-throws of the Lake Ontario band and we are wrapping up the first chapter for the new LES season.

Yep.....but I think overnight, we will get some new activity that generates over N. Onondaga county and then lifts north into Oswego and S. Jeff. counties. Nothing like the robust band that has just transited the E. L. Ontario counties with the cap being lower, and the dendrites much smaller. That said, maybe a couple more inches for Oswego Co. overnight.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

AT NOON A BROAD AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS THE COUNTIES

BORDERING THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORE LINE. THE ACTIVITY WILL

CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH OF THE

THRUWAY WILL EXPERIENCE THE SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 2 PM, WITH AREAS

FARTHER SOUTH AFTER THEN. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT ABOUT 1 TO 2

INCHES OF FRESH SNOW AS THE SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. WESTERLY WINDS

GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH WILL COMBINE TO CREATE POOR DRIVING

CONDITIONS, WITH LOW VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW.:thumbsup: thx Ontario :P

I think this blurb is going to bust.....I have a coating, and heavy snow, but the band is disintigrating as we type...

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

I think this blurb is going to bust.....I have a coating, and heavy snow, but the band is disintigrating as we type...

Agreed. I'm expecting to see some flakes flying around to add to the wintry appeal of this afternoon...but I'm not expecting any additional accumulation. The big issue around here today is the drifting....these N-S country roads are very difficult to keep clear with west winds gusting up to 45 mph. Even though many hours have passed since the snow "ended" the plows are still making occasional passes down my street.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Brief but nice Huron to Erie connection:

post-312-0-00530300-1290889207.gif

-SN has started up again.

The latest WRF is actually depicting a brief increase in LES from the Chautauqua Ridge northward to the Boston Hills this evening...especially in the 03z-06z timeframe. I'm also wondering if we can generate a "surprise" LES band tomorrow morning when the winds veer to a more WSW direction and the fetch increases. Delta-T's could be sufficient and the inversion could be high enough to allow for a burst of snow in Erie County before the WAA kicks into high gear during the afternoon.

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