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Thanksgiving Weekend Lake-effect Snow


OSUmetstud

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Is Lake Erie feeding the southern of the 2 Ontario bands?

northeast_loop.gif

I don't think so. The remnants of the Erie band show themselves in the southern foothills of the 'Dacks, just north of the Thruway.....at least for now. It'll be interesting to see how the interaction of all the bands plays out as the winds veer into the early morning.

The wind flow that is occurring right now over L. Ontario is just about perfect for a double band. You get the northern band forming from the long axis of the lake (with it's genesis at the concave "tip" on the western shoreline, and a southern shoreline convergence band, with it's genesis at the concave shoreline north of Rochester. But the Erie band will soon hook up with the southern Ontario band, which should really intensify it for the folks in and around Sandy Creek and points ENE'ward...

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Moderate snow continues here in Orchard Park, and I'd estimate we've picked up at least 2" if not a little more at this point. Nothing earth-shattering, but it's been coming down at a moderate clip for over an hour now. Initially it had appeared as if this band was going to push through very quickly, but it looks like some reorganization is occurring out over the lake...perhaps as winds begin to back a little bit in advance of the next s/w. Hopefully I can walk away from this with at least 4 inches. I'll take a real measurement first thing in the morning.

post-619-0-95563900-1290836205.gif

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Just drove back to Rochester From Buffalo. Only had a couple flurries in the Far Northtowns throughout the day but really took it on the chin during the drive back from about the 290/90 toll booth right through Churchville on the 490. I even have about a quarter to half inch of Lake Erie water on my front yard. I would guess amounts of around 4 inches somewhere between batavia and Lancaster, but it was a white knuckle ride most of the way so I'm sure my eyeball measurements could be skewed. I'll be the first to admit that the band looks better than I had anticipated. It has really developed nicely in the past couple hours with the arrival of solid synoptic moisture. As mentioned, been seeing some lightning strikes show up on my MyCast Weather App. In Summary, a very solid Erie band to start the season.

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From the 06z 27 Nov NAM and GFS. TSEC for The Tug. NAM looks better in terms of VV in snowgrowth region . Winds look to shift north of west by early to mid-aftn 1-4 pm. GFS has less favorable VV in snowgrowth and lower moisture and tries to shift the band south a few hours sooner late AM early PM.

NAM:

GFS:

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6.5" total here, although half of that probably came in one hour alone during the thunderstorm! There were three flashes of lightning and cracks of thunder in about a five-minute period. The snow has ended, but there's a lot of blowing/drifting going on at the moment. Gotta run now, but I'll post pics later!

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6.5" total here, although half of that probably came in one hour alone during the thunderstorm! There were three flashes of lightning and cracks of thunder in about a five-minute period. The snow has ended, but there's a lot of blowing/drifting going on at the moment. Gotta run now, but I'll post pics later!

Nice! Beginning of Dec. looks like we can continue to stay interested in potentials. I like the models tendency to back a strong storm off the coast next week or so. Strong blocking ftw! Let's hope that holds. Nevertheless, LES will continue to be a strong possibility at times for the next few weeks. :thumbsup::snowman:

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