Thanksgiving Weekend Lake-effect Snow

[OSUmetstud]

some posts from the other thread...

12z UKMET trended towards the less progressive scenario too...thought it continues to be more progressive than the GFS. The best cold air and instability still doesn't arrive until the winds veer west to west-northwest...putting the heavy snows in ski country. It looks better than the previous run, however.

We've seen this happen before...the global models don't have a good handle on the lake-aggregate trough which should be impressive given the instability and the lake temperatures. The lake aggregate tends to put lower pressure in the upper Great Lakes...causing the winds to have more of a southerly component (or less of a northerly component) than modeled.

Canadian would indicate the start of someone getting that:

I would say so...it's too early to say exactly where imo. As usual, the best shot to see those amounts would be in the Tug Hill.

I just got the new Euro coming in right now...just like the other models....slower and less progressive. Friday at 12z...850s of -13C with a 250 wind up Lake Erie.

The midlevel temps on the Euro aren't super impressive. 700s of -16c to -19c...just borderline dry adiabatic. Not quite extreme...but still good enough to get very nice bands off of Lake Erie and Ontario.

I got my rental until Friday...I'll be in Hagerstown at my sister's for Thanksgiving. I'm going to wait until Wednesday or so to extend. If things look good, I'm leaving Hagerstown Thursday night for the lakes! Alone, or with Matt.

Buffalo southtowns and ski country are right up there this time of year, wrt the Tug....they lose the advantage as Erie cools faster and starts to freeze.

I'm scared of the tug, lol. I might get trapped back there and I'm not sure of the cell service there. I have tethering through my phone (Tmobile)

just trying to get people excited lol.

[LakeEffectKing]

I'll remove mine!

[ayuud]

lets hope this trend continues

[CNYWeather]

I'm a novice looking at the models. Seems like most of the event will have a SW wind component to it.

Am I looking at those right? I'm more of a WNW wind to get it to central Oneida County.

PS: Which site are you getting those model maps from. Thanks!

[ayuud]

I'm a novice looking at the models. Seems like most of the event will have a SW wind component to it.

Am I looking at those right? I'm more of a WNW wind to get it to central Oneida County.

PS: Which site are you getting those model maps from. Thanks!

i believe it's this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

[OSUmetstud]

I'm a novice looking at the models. Seems like most of the event will have a SW wind component to it.

Am I looking at those right? I'm more of a WNW wind to get it to central Oneida County.

PS: Which site are you getting those model maps from. Thanks!

I'm seeing a WNW component on Saturday.

I should clarify...those two maps I posted are not model maps lol. They are from the Nov. 20, 2000 "Gridlock Monday" Buffalo snowstorm and the October 13, 2006 "October Surprise" Buffalo snowstorm. The Canadian image LEK posted is a model.

Raleighwx has a great site for models...just go to the right top side of this webpage on the "Go To" tab and click on the Model Data link.

[CNY Mike]

The start of the lake effect looks to be delayed until the daytime Friday, but after that it's looking good through Sunday. Even the EURO is coming on-board for stalling the low north in Canada, as per the 12z run.

[Tornado Girl]

I'm a novice looking at the models. Seems like most of the event will have a SW wind component to it.

Am I looking at those right? I'm more of a WNW wind to get it to central Oneida County.

PS: Which site are you getting those model maps from. Thanks!

You're right....Last time I looked, the GFS and Euro were almost in agreement. The GFS starts things off Fiday with more of a SW-WSW flow then it slowly moves South to a WNW orientation that OSUmetstud mentioned by Saturday. The ECMWF starts things out a little more to the South. The models should have a good handle on this by Tuesday.

There are several you can use....Here is link that will give you what you need

http://www.esrl.noaa.../data.narr.html

[2001kx]

Could be a fun game to watch?

steelers vs bills sunday 1:00 pm playing in buffalo.

if it will still be snowing.

[OSUmetstud]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

530 AM EST MON NOV 22 2010

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-231030-

NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-

ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-

530 AM EST MON NOV 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF THE SEASON MAY BE ON THE

WAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS

FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT

AND FRIDAY. A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST

AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR AND POSSIBLY SET THE STAGE FOR

SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE. IT REMAINS FAR TOO

EARLY FOR ANY DETAILS ON EXACT LOCATION OR ACCUMULATIONS.

OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS THERE MAY ALSO BE A GENERAL LIGHT

SNOWFALL LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO SNOW...

THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE

REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

WEBSITE OR ANOTHER SOURCE OF LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR FURTHER

UPDATES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...

AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN

BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

$$

[OSUmetstud]

From my estimation...it appears that the latest guidance is calling for a Buffalo southtowns (Silver Creek, Angola, Orchard Park area) and northern Tug event on Friday (260 850mb flow) follow by a shift to the Chautauqua Ridge, Ski Country, and south off of Lake Erie on Saturday and a southern Tug Hill, Oswego, Wayne, and Onondoga County type thing off of Ontario.

The most difficult thing IMO to predict will be predicting band placement off of Lake Erie on Friday...where bands can creep just a bit further north than modeled and surprise the immediate suburbs and the city. I think reasonably heavy snow on Saturday is a slam dunk for the traditional snow belts.

This does not have the makings of an "epic" event IMO due to too quickly shifting winds and the lack of a very deep unstable layer that we saw in the dec. 95, nov. 2000, oct. 2006, feb. 2007 type events.

[Andyace]

I will be happy just to have the ground covered with snow so I don't have to look at all the brown anymore.

[CNYWeather]

I will be happy just to have the ground covered with snow so I don't have to look at all the brown anymore.

Back so soon? Figured you'd be honeymooning still

[stormtracker]

From my estimation...it appears that the latest guidance is calling for a Buffalo southtowns (Silver Creek, Angola, Orchard Park area) and northern Tug event on Friday (260 850mb flow) follow by a shift to the Chautauqua Ridge, Ski Country, and south off of Lake Erie on Saturday and a southern Tug Hill, Oswego, Wayne, and Onondoga County type thing off of Ontario.

The most difficult thing IMO to predict will be predicting band placement off of Lake Erie on Friday...where bands can creep just a bit further north than modeled and surprise the immediate suburbs and the city. I think reasonably heavy snow on Saturday is a slam dunk for the traditional snow belts.

This does not have the makings of an "epic" event IMO due to too quickly shifting winds and the lack of a very deep unstable layer that we saw in the dec. 95, nov. 2000, oct. 2006, feb. 2007 type events.

Ah, now this is the type of info I'm looking for.

Any idea on the timing of the good stuff Nick?

[OSUmetstud]

Ah, now this is the type of info I'm looking for.

Any idea on the timing of the good stuff Nick?

If I'd choose a place and a time it being Friday night through Saturday near Redfield, NY. (Tug Hill area)

If you don't want to go to the Tug Hill...I'd check out the Chautauqua Ridge or the Boston/Colden area in WNY.

I think some parts of the Tug Hill could exceed 2 ft (30" or so just to throw out a number)....with slightly less amounts off of Lake Erie...maybe maxes around 2ft on the Chautauqua Ridge.

Preliminary forecast for WNY...

Total amounts from Friday morning through Sunday.

1-3" Buffalo northtowns

3-6" city of Buffalo

6-12" Buffalo southtowns (Orchard Park/Angola/Evans)

12-18" far southern southtowns (Boston/Colden)

12-24" Chautauqua Ridge and northern Cattauragus County

[LakeEffectKing]

If I'd choose a place and a time it being Friday night through Saturday near Redfield, NY. (Tug Hill area)

If you don't want to go to the Tug Hill...I'd check out the Chautauqua Ridge or the Boston/Colden area in WNY.

I think some parts of the Tug Hill could exceed 2 ft (30" or so just to throw out a number)....with slightly less amounts off of Lake Erie...maybe maxes around 2ft on the Chautauqua Ridge.

Preliminary forecast for WNY...

Total amounts from Friday morning through Sunday.

1-3" Buffalo northtowns

3-6" city of Buffalo

6-12" Buffalo southtowns (Orchard Park/Angola/Evans)

12-18" far southern southtowns (Boston/Colden)

12-24" Chautauqua Ridge and northern Cattauragus County

I pretty much agree, however, as of right now, I'd say for the Tug area, a bit further north may be the targeted area (Barnes Corners, Hooker, Montague triangle). As for off Erie, the potential for a great lakes induced trough, along with the orientation of L. Erie close to the mean flow, I'd bump BUF's potential numbers up a bit.

Trends have been to back away from a prolonged event, but a decent little transitional event (to the south) for many of the traditional snowbelt locations is in the cards.

[Andyace]

Back so soon? Figured you'd be honeymooning still

My whole life is like a Honeymoon, lol not sure when or where but soon...

[OSUmetstud]

I pretty much agree, however, as of right now, I'd say for the Tug area, a bit further north may be the targeted area (Barnes Corners, Hooker, Montague triangle). As for off Erie, the potential for a great lakes induced trough, along with the orientation of L. Erie close to the mean flow, I'd bump BUF's potential numbers up a bit.

Trends have been to back away from a prolonged event, but a decent little transitional event (to the south) for many of the traditional snowbelt locations is in the cards.

Perhaps on the Tug Hill, it depends on when the heavier snows are. I'm checking out the ECMWF 850mb winds on our workstation. On Friday, the winds are mainly in the 250-260 range. However, on Saturday through Saturday night, there are significant periods of 280 flow as some subtle troughs move through the mean flow.

As for Buffalo, yeah I mentioned the possibility of more significant snowfall earlier due to the lake aggregate/local shoreline convergence effect. I wouldn't forecast it yet, however.

[Andyace]

I pretty much agree, however, as of right now, I'd say for the Tug area, a bit further north may be the targeted area (Barnes Corners, Hooker, Montague triangle). As for off Erie, the potential for a great lakes induced trough, along with the orientation of L. Erie close to the mean flow, I'd bump BUF's potential numbers up a bit.

Trends have been to back away from a prolonged event, but a decent little transitional event (to the south) for many of the traditional snowbelt locations is in the cards.

I hope I at least get brushed for a few hours... that would be a real treat for me.

[Andyace]

Perhaps on the Tug Hill, it depends on when the heavier snows are. I'm checking out the ECMWF 850mb winds on our workstation. On Friday, the winds are mainly in the 250-260 range. However, on Saturday through Saturday night, there are significant periods of 280 flow as some subtle troughs move through the mean flow.

Nice if my memory serves me correct that is close to me in Forestport.

[Revracer800]

Any chance us folks in southern Oswego county will get in on the LE? I wanna take a rip around the yard with my snowmobile haha.

[OSUmetstud]

I hope I at least get brushed for a few hours... that would be a real treat for me.

I think you'll do pretty well. The forecasted low-level winds should be strong enough to advect the band significantly inland. Also, low-level temperatures should be pretty warm due to the time of year, so the band won't quickly glaciate and snow out before it gets to your location.

[CNYWeather]

Nice if my memory serves me correct that is close to me in Forestport.

I was gonna say the same thing. Northern Oneida county gets into the fun with a 280ish flow.

Hope we get something around 270 for a while so I can play too.

[Tornado Girl]

If I'd choose a place and a time it being Friday night through Saturday near Redfield, NY. (Tug Hill area)

If you don't want to go to the Tug Hill...I'd check out the Chautauqua Ridge or the Boston/Colden area in WNY.

I think some parts of the Tug Hill could exceed 2 ft (30" or so just to throw out a number)....with slightly less amounts off of Lake Erie...maybe maxes around 2ft on the Chautauqua Ridge.

Preliminary forecast for WNY...

Total amounts from Friday morning through Sunday.

1-3" Buffalo northtowns

3-6" city of Buffalo

6-12" Buffalo southtowns (Orchard Park/Angola/Evans)

12-18" far southern southtowns (Boston/Colden)

12-24" Chautauqua Ridge and northern Cattauragus County

I pretty much agree, however, as of right now, I'd say for the Tug area, a bit further north may be the targeted area (Barnes Corners, Hooker, Montague triangle). As for off Erie, the potential for a great lakes induced trough, along with the orientation of L. Erie close to the mean flow, I'd bump BUF's potential numbers up a bit.

Trends have been to back away from a prolonged event, but a decent little transitional event (to the south) for many of the traditional snowbelt locations is in the cards.

Perhaps on the Tug Hill, it depends on when the heavier snows are. I'm checking out the ECMWF 850mb winds on our workstation. On Friday, the winds are mainly in the 250-260 range. However, on Saturday through Saturday night, there are significant periods of 280 flow as some subtle troughs move through the mean flow.

As for Buffalo, yeah I mentioned the possibility of more significant snowfall earlier due to the lake aggregate/local shoreline convergence effect. I wouldn't forecast it yet, however.

Now if we can just get the GFS to trend a little colder, like it was last week it it does ...we will be in business for a very nice event...yesterday, I had thought this would drift off the southern Tug Saturday night....Now I'm not so sure.

[stormtracker]

If I'd choose a place and a time it being Friday night through Saturday near Redfield, NY. (Tug Hill area)

If you don't want to go to the Tug Hill...I'd check out the Chautauqua Ridge or the Boston/Colden area in WNY.

I think some parts of the Tug Hill could exceed 2 ft (30" or so just to throw out a number)....with slightly less amounts off of Lake Erie...maybe maxes around 2ft on the Chautauqua Ridge.

Preliminary forecast for WNY...

Total amounts from Friday morning through Sunday.

1-3" Buffalo northtowns

3-6" city of Buffalo

6-12" Buffalo southtowns (Orchard Park/Angola/Evans)

12-18" far southern southtowns (Boston/Colden)

12-24" Chautauqua Ridge and northern Cattauragus County

Bear with me here..I don't know the geography and I'm a newb with LES stuff.

So,when you say Tug Hill...any towns I should target? I know Tug Hill refers to a geographical area of towns, right? To the locals...any towns/hotels with good wifi, lol

Nevermind..I saw you specifically listed Redfield.

[OSUmetstud]

Bear with me here..I don't know the geography and I'm a newb with LES stuff.

So,when you say Tug Hill...any towns I should target? I know Tug Hill refers to a geographical area of towns, right? To the locals...any towns/hotels with good wifi, lol

Nevermind..I saw you specifically listed Redfield.

that dark green area.

[Andyace]

Still a little ways off but at least there is hope.

[ayuud]

If I'd choose a place and a time it being Friday night through Saturday near Redfield, NY. (Tug Hill area)

If you don't want to go to the Tug Hill...I'd check out the Chautauqua Ridge or the Boston/Colden area in WNY.

I think some parts of the Tug Hill could exceed 2 ft (30" or so just to throw out a number)....with slightly less amounts off of Lake Erie...maybe maxes around 2ft on the Chautauqua Ridge.

Preliminary forecast for WNY...

Total amounts from Friday morning through Sunday.

1-3" Buffalo northtowns

3-6" city of Buffalo

6-12" Buffalo southtowns (Orchard Park/Angola/Evans)

12-18" far southern southtowns (Boston/Colden)

12-24" Chautauqua Ridge and northern Cattauragus County

could we see higher amounts than that ?

[Tornado Girl]

Bear with me here..I don't know the geography and I'm a newb with LES stuff.

So,when you say Tug Hill...any towns I should target? I know Tug Hill refers to a geographical area of towns, right? To the locals...any towns/hotels with good wifi, lol

Nevermind..I saw you specifically listed Redfield.

The Tug hill encompasses The area south of Watertown in Jefferson county, eastern Oswego county, most of Lewis County, and the Northern and Northwestern tip of Oneida county...The major towns are Parish, Barnes Corners, Martinsburg, Rodman, Montague, Redfield, Osceola, Lewis (west Leyden), Adams, Lyons Falls, Turin, Constableville, and Lowville. There are a few places that have wifi...one of them is called the The Edge Hotel in Lyons Falls.

[OSUmetstud]

could we see higher amounts than that ?

for Buffalo...sure. We've seen plenty of times that the lake aggregate and local concave shoreline effect causes the band to lift further north than forecasted. Buffalo is the toughest part of the forecast, I think. Plus, it's still 4 days out...so the wind directions aren't set in stone by any means.