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Thanksgiving weekend snow/ice threat


Cyclonicjunkie

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there were some minor reports of brief snow and sleet. I think western Kentucky had a little more.

RECORD EVENT REPORT...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

451 PM CST FRI NOV 26 2010

..RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL TIED AT JACKSON

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF A TRACE INCH(ES) WAS SET AT JACKSON TODAY

NOVEMBER 26TH. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF TRACE SET IN 1956.

A TRACE OF SNOWFALL WAS ALSO REPORTED YESTERDAY NOVEMEBER 25TH WHICH

ALSO TIED A RECORD SET IN 1956.

from Nashville:

..SLEET REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID STATE

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO THE FREEZING MARK FROM PORTLAND WEST

TO CLARKSVILLE AND DOVER...THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD

OF THE MID STATE. THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HERE IN NASHVILLE

RECEIVED A REPORT OF SLEET FROM THE OPRYLAND AREA AROUND 130 AM.

DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES SLEET EXTENDING FROM CLIFTON TO

LINDEN TO CENTERVILLE...FAIRVIEW AND INTO THE NASHVILLE AREA.

GROUND TEMPERATURES AND ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE

FREEZING AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS FROM THE WINTRY

WEATHER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

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Checked the obs in NW TN and can't find any evidence of frozen opf, looks like a classic case of the cold front chasing precip, with most stations >5F above the mark.

http://forecast.weat...ST&offset=21600

I can think of plenty of cases where cold air caught a frontal wave. However, when is the last time the cold air actually caught a front in the SE for a decent thumping?

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They were close, and so were cool wx precip type graphics.

Again soundings in lower elevations are a VERY useful tool IMO, but they lose validity the higher you climb in elevation

.

not really - they can accurate at many elevations. lookout is esp good at this - he can quickly discern what the temps will be at any given location and elevation, and has even posted mby would be below freezing for an event while most outlets dont mention it. he is correct almost all the time (my elevation is a little under 1800)

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not really

:facepalm: Its not rocket science.

The sounding analysis is limited by how well it represents the greater area. The sounding balloon rises at about 1,000 fpm, so it takes about 30 minutes to reach 30,000 feet. During which time it has drifted west, or south, or north, or east from its launch point due to strong winds aloft and turbulance that mountainous terrain is imfamous for creating.

So to get a valid sounding you have to have relatively stable conditions aloft which you rarely ever have in the mountains.:whistle:

That said, I have no doubt that Lookout is an expert at analyzing data from soundings/skew t's.

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<br /><img src='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/facepalm.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':facepalm:' /> Its not rocket science.<br /><br /><br />The sounding analysis is <b>limited</b> by how well it represents the greater area. The sounding balloon rises at about 1,000 fpm, so it takes about 30 minutes to reach 30,000 feet. During which time it has drifted west, or south, or north, or east from its launch point due to strong winds aloft and turbulance that mountainous terrain is imfamous for creating. <br /><br />So to get a valid sounding you have to have relatively stable conditions aloft which you <b>rarely</b> ever have in the mountains.<img src='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/whistle.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':whistle:' /> <br /><br /><br /><br />That said, I have no doubt that Lookout is an expert at analyzing data from soundings/skew t's.<br />

I guess I should have prefaced it with the n ga mtns...soundings are quite accurate. However for higher elevations in nc or tn (which are over twice my elevation) that could be an issue. I used some for my lat/long and they have been surprisingly accurate

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