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Thanksgiving weekend snow/ice threat

Cyclonicjunkie

By Cyclonicjunkie,
in Southeastern States

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Off topic..What is this "warn status" junk showing up below my profile pic? Can it be removed?

That is your warn bar, as long as it is empty you are in good shape. A much deserved carryover from eastern and lets the user know whether or not they have some deficiencies as far as the mod staff is concerned. I would not put much stock into it at this point as it usually lights up, as warranted, during active periods. Still a warning though to those out there whose posts are sub-par, consistently, and identified as such. :guitar:

New Rules been give

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
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That is your warn bar, as long as it is empty you are in good shape. A much deserved carryover from eastern and lets the user know whether or not they have some deficiencies as far as the mod staff is concerned. I would not put much stock into it at this point as it usually lights up, as warranted, during active periods. Still a warning though to those out there whose posts are sub-par, consistently, and identified as such. :guitar:

Not to sound to elementary schoolish, but how come nobody else has that? I rarely even post, much less stir the pot.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Not to sound to elementary schoolish, but how come nobody else has that? I rarely even post, much less stir the pot.

your warn status is private, as between you and the staff... As long as the bar is empty, you are in good shape, no worries! No one else can see your warn stat, except for mods and admin. Nothing to fret, just a simple formality that preserves and maintains the integrity of the board during active periods... :thumbsup:

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

your warn status is private, as between you and the staff... As long as the bar is empty, you are in good shape, no worries! No one else can see your warn stat, except for mods and admin. Nothing to fret, just a simple formality that preserves and maintains the integrity of the board during active periods... :thumbsup:

Good grief. I understand now, and totally agree w/ its use. I thought other folks could see it! Sorry. I just turned forty...maybe that's factoring in... :whistle:

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

I see you point of sounding in areas where Elevation varies greatly. But I would bet that most folks use it within the bag of tricks. Hard to pin point soundings for exact Elevations.

With that said, I use the $hit out of soundings for my area (roughly around to sightly over 1,100') in the winter.

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

Soundings have worked for me in my area. By the way I get soundi gs from the euro now so that should come in handy this winter. Also I live in the mtns and I am not reall expecting anything other that a few flurries or light snow showers.

From AccuWx pro? Those technically arent soundings if that's what you're referencing. However, it's 100% more information than we used to have.

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
Posted

I can't help but notice that the title of this thread is "Thanksgiving weekend snow/ice threat", but I am really failing to see much of a threat at all. Note that I am not discussing anything for December - just the coming weekend.

The past several runs of the GFS, including the intermediate runs, have been modifying the cold air that is due to arrive on Thursday/Friday, depending on where you live in the Carolina's. Just a few days ago for Asheville, it progged 850mb temps near -10°C and as of the latest run, they've been warmed to only -3°C - and with minimal, if any precipitation. I definitely don't see temperatures falling 30-40 degrees as was stated in the opening post in this thread.

Let's remember that the long-range GFS has always had a known bias for it's super intense cold air outbreaks, only to slowly modify them over each successive model run.

There is little doubt that it will be noticeably cooler this weekend over the warmth we are experiencing now. But it won't be nearly as bad as initially forecast.

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

I can't help but notice that the title of this thread is "Thanksgiving weekend snow/ice threat", but I am really failing to see much of a threat at all. Note that I am not discussing anything for December - just the coming weekend.

The past several runs of the GFS, including the intermediate runs, have been modifying the cold air that is due to arrive on Thursday/Friday, depending on where you live in the Carolina's. Just a few days ago for Asheville, it progged 850mb temps near -10°C and as of the latest run, they've been warmed to only -3°C - and with minimal, if any precipitation. I definitely don't see temperatures falling 30-40 degrees as was stated in the opening post in this thread.

Let's remember that the long-range GFS has always had a known bias for it's super intense cold air outbreaks, only to slowly modify them over each successive model run.

There is little doubt that it will be noticeably cooler this weekend over the warmth we are experiencing now. But it won't be nearly as bad as initially forecast.

This :hug:

Tepid cold chasing the moisture. Now the one around the 5th has a low in the favorable parts of Fla. Were that to verify, with some actual cold air, it might have legs :) If we could only figure out a way to live in the long range Goofy....we'd be sledding all the time, lol. T

And this :wub:

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

Lol, well, relatively speaking...anything over 25 after the summer/fall I've endured will seem tepid :) T

Remember, last year I predicted a sleetacane for you this upcoming winter. Looks now to be around the 29th of Dec.

FYI, did you know in a sleetacane that most people die from the sleet surge, not the sleet itself ?

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Cyclonicjunkie

Cyclonicjunkie

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Nashville

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN

547 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

DISCUSSION...

SCT CLOUDS 4-5 WITH VERY WARM TEMPS...UP TO 75 AT BNA. BLUSTERY S-SW

WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO NEAR 30KT AT TIMES.

TWO BIG WEATHER SYSTEMS ON THE WAY. TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A

DEEPENING LO PRES CENTER MOVING NE THRU THE GRTLKS WILL DRAG A

CDFNT INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL

STILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN DROP OFF ONCE RAIN SETS

IN. HIGHER POPS NW 1/2 TONIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR TONIGHT AND

TUE...LOWERED DURING TUE AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE INCREASES FM SW TUE NIGHT AS A WMFNT MOVES N. SLIGHT CHANCE

POPS W LATE. WMFNT MOVES ACROSS WED AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO

CHANCE CAT. ELEVATED CONVECTION.

A BREAK EXPECTED WED NIGHT. THU...NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER NRN

MIDWEST AND STRONG HI PRES MOVES E OUT OF ROCKIES. FRONT MOVES MOVES

IN W/ HI POPS THU AND THU NITE. CHANCE OF SOME LITE WINTRY PRECIP

THU NITE AND EARLY FRI

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Cyclonicjunkie

Cyclonicjunkie

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My forecast from MRX :wub:

Thursday Night: Rain showers likely before 4am, then snow showers likely. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: Rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 20.

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Cyclonicjunkie

Cyclonicjunkie

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I can't help but notice that the title of this thread is "Thanksgiving weekend snow/ice threat", but I am really failing to see much of a threat at all. Note that I am not discussing anything for December - just the coming weekend.

The threat is there, mainly just for TN now.

I definitely don't see temperatures falling 30-40 degrees as was stated in the opening post in this thread.

Not saying the 18zGFS is right but it clearly shows 30 degree drops with the frontal passage in TN and MS

2010112218_EUS_GFS_SFC_TEMP_IMAGE_072.gif

2010112218_EUS_GFS_SFC_TEMP_IMAGE_078.gif

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Cyclonicjunkie

Cyclonicjunkie

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Winter WX Advisory out for west TN and part of MS:snowman:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

355 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010

...FIRST TASTE OF WINTER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND

EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. A SHALLOW BUT MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL

FOLLOW THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD LAG THROUGH THE EVENING

HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THEREFORE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A

MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST

THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. ABOUT A 3 HOUR BURST OF

WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THE WARM GROUND...LITTLE

IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES...BRIDGES AND

OVERPASSES AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS MOST PRONE TO FREEZING MAY

ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATION.

ARZ026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ115-MSZ001-007-TNZ001>004-

019>021-048>054-088>090-251100-

/O.NEW.KMEG.WW.Y.0010.101126T0300Z-101126T0900Z/

CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-

LEE AR-PHILLIPS-PEMISCOT-DESOTO-TUNICA-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-

DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-MADISON-

CHESTER-HENDERSON-SHELBY-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JONESBORO...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...

WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...HELENA...CARUTHERSVILLE...

SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...TUNICA...UNION CITY...MARTIN...

DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MILAN...HUNTINGDON...

COVINGTON...JACKSON...LEXINGTON...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...

COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...BOLIVAR

355 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM

CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9

PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM CST FRIDAY.

* ONLY MINOR SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER

MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD FREEZE BRIDGES

AND SECONDARY ROADS...ALLOWING FOR MORE ROBUST ACCUMULATION OF

SNOW AND SLEET ON THOSE SURFACES.

* RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AND SLEET BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT

THURSDAY EVENING AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY 3 AM.

* SECONDARY ROADS AND BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME QUITE SLICK

THURSDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

&&

$

:popcorn:

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