daddylonglegs Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So a warm up in the cards? Seems about right after we fall off a cliff next week. I could handle a few days of 50F+ ... melt a bunch of snow off and lessen the chances of catastrophic flooding in March/April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 +12C into SW MN... Does it mix to the surface? Probably not... I remember this happening last year...air above us was about that warm, but surface temps were stuck in the 30s or something like that. Stupid mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Barring a torch, weve hit the point of no return lol. Anything that falls from the sky will make the snowpack last longer. Had to do a core sample. It was fricking hard work lol. The snowpack is so dense/deep, and the ground SO frozen, Once I scooped out the snow I had to literally chip at the bottom layer of ice crust to get it all into the can to melt. Its to the point that even a 45F rainstorm will simply soak into the snowpack. Sure it would sink some and certainly lose some of its gorgeous appeal, but adding water to it (currently melting but Im guessing ~1.4" water content) it would soak into it like a sponge making it even more glacial and harder to melt. OF COURSE I want more snow not 45F rain, just giving an example that worst case scenario is we wont be seeing grass for a LONG time, and best case scenario is we may start to resemble a U.P. snowbelt if the extended works out. On another note on snowpack, we have officially passed average 1"+ snowcover days for an ENTIRE winter at 50 days at DTW (official avg 49). 41 to go for the 1977-78 record 18 inches of snow can melt in 3 days ......a couple days of mid 40s dewpoints and fog to soften up the pack, then a inch soaker low 40s rain to wash it all away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 RUC, NAM. GEM, GFS all agree tonight for a swatch of 2-3 inches in my area....models are stronger with the mid level vort and put out decent lift in the DGZ. STL NWS has taken notice and has investigated. Looking much better for accumulating snows here late tonight and tomorrow am. http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_backup/.//+radar+am+24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Not sure if it's the NAM being the NAM, but the 12z run looks much more "interesting" for KY, central/southern IN, and OH for tonight and tomorrow's action. Nothing extraordinary at all, but a decent swath of 0.1"+ for the above areas with KY in the 0.25" shading. Yeah, quite the drastic shift in the precip shield. Looks like LAF will be riding near the edge but the available 12z runs suggest about an inch or a little more may be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 I like 1-2" for LAF tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if the new runs can tick even farther northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 this is getting close to a 3-4 inch event here. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 this would be one for the record books. 71 degree temp swing in 36 hours not to mention -26 being a record as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Look how far we've come since last night I wonder if there was some data that didn't make it into the 00z runs 00z NAM 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The 18z nam says: hello LAF. Maybe it looked at the radar and figured out something was wrong. the radar is impressive for a minor event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The 18z nam says: hello LAF. Maybe it looked at the radar and figured out something was wrong. our crusty lil snow pack took a big hit today....sunshine and mid to upper 30's. Kind of a bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Went from having barely enough snow to snowmobile on to having literally to much snow without a mountain sled. Get down to where we were going to dump our sleds off this am and not even a single track on the trails yet and the POW is 3 to 4' deep.. Trails along field edges have drifts 6-12' high and extend a good 75 yards out. Road crossings are up to 7' wall rock banks. Guess we'll have to head north where there is a little less snow and the groomers can get out.. Winds out of the SW pretty strong have really whipped up the drifts in the other direction now.. Simply jaw dropping out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 The 18z nam says: hello LAF. Maybe it looked at the radar and figured out something was wrong. If the model performance with this system is any indication of what's to come, it's gonna be a long week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Seriously? Only in the mid-20's around here. yea, bright sunshine probably doing most of the dirty work. Went outside to start clearing the broken tree branches from the neighbors back yard and it felt like 50 degrees lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The weekend will be bad enough trying to figure out what the models will do with that early week thing. I think we all need a break. first one last hurrah.... bring on JB's snowlocaust week first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 first one last hurrah.... bring on JB's snowlocaust week first. lol...is he calling for the extinction of mankind yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 first one last hurrah.... bring on JB's snowlocaust week first. loltastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 loltastic. i'm copyrighting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 thread for the weekend event: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/12575-feb-4th-5th-snow-event/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 34 degrees at MSP...warmest since Dec. 30. It feels great out. 84th straight day here with snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Went from having barely enough snow to snowmobile on to having literally to much snow without a mountain sled. Get down to where we were going to dump our sleds off this am and not even a single track on the trails yet and the POW is 3 to 4' deep.. Trails along field edges have drifts 6-12' high and extend a good 75 yards out. Road crossings are up to 7' wall rock banks. Guess we'll have to head north where there is a little less snow and the groomers can get out.. Winds out of the SW pretty strong have really whipped up the drifts in the other direction now.. Simply jaw dropping out there. it is beautiful isnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If the model performance with this system is any indication of what's to come, it's gonna be a long week. i cant believe how bad they have been as Will ORH said in the NE thread : the way to go this year is slower, deeper and more amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i cant believe how bad they have been as Will ORH said in the NE thread : the way to go this year is slower, deeper and more amplified my wife tells me that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 my wife tells me that too well you have no choice considering winter neglect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Seriously? Only in the mid-20's around here. hmmm i guess i was wrong...according to port cmh our high topped out around 32. Assuming it was higher because my car thermometer read 36 and it's usually pretty accurate. Either way the sun was pretty strong here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 well you have no choice considering winter neglect by the end of this winter i'm gonna owe her a neg tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18 inches of snow can melt in 3 days ......a couple days of mid 40s dewpoints and fog to soften up the pack, then a inch soaker low 40s rain to wash it all away Yeah Ive seen some quick melts, I was just thinking with the ground so frozen, a lot of water in the snowpack, and decent potential in the extended, were sitting good for a while. Mustve picked a bad spot for my core sample, came up with almost 2". I think the avg is about 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Went from having barely enough snow to snowmobile on to having literally to much snow without a mountain sled. Get down to where we were going to dump our sleds off this am and not even a single track on the trails yet and the POW is 3 to 4' deep.. Trails along field edges have drifts 6-12' high and extend a good 75 yards out. Road crossings are up to 7' wall rock banks. Guess we'll have to head north where there is a little less snow and the groomers can get out.. Winds out of the SW pretty strong have really whipped up the drifts in the other direction now.. Simply jaw dropping out there. February snowmobiling better in S MI/WI than much of northern WI/MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 2 roof collapses due to snow and ice buildup in Indiana the past two days. Isht just got real with this winter. Yesterday in Crown Point: http://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/lake/crown-point/article_20170b2e-70c6-522a-ba97-27d7a22ac503.html Today in Noblesville: http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/news/local/hamilton_county/noblesville-companys-roof-collapses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Last light this evening...2 sunny days in a row! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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