BowMeHunter Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I just noticed LOT bumped up temps area wide for the next few days. They're now going with 59F at ORD for Thursday. ORD records in jeopardy... .........Max High....Max Low... 16th...58F(1921)...39F(1998) 17th...60F(1880)...42F(1890) Seems like the euro bumped warmer temps up farther north.. Also seems to speed the CF in a tad faster.. that rarely happens but seems to be a trend. Who knows how high temps will go once all the snow is gone down south. Not sure how models figure that in right now if at all but I'm bracing for the worst.. Not sure how much worse it can go but we'll see! Last March and april torch is still on my mind to how high things can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 not sure what the depth is here as a lot of my snow is contaminated with snow blower snow too.. That's why I wanted to go out back and get some measurements but I didn't feel like climbing the big plow mounds to get back there. I doubt we have much more than a foot left after today. some spots will be higher im sure and some lower. Out my front door in the wind tunnel its down to grass in a small area... That poor area never stands a chance with a NE wind that howls in most storms and it gets raped in a torch facing SW. Across the road it looks like they have dam near 2' left... I think you can come out of this with snow left yet.. doesn't look like you get into the real warm stuff that gets into me and southern MI. GL though bro. Well, if I survive with two inches of crud snow, I don't know if I'd call that a victory. Probably be best just to nuke the whole pack and start over fresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I've got 36F< but fighting a N wind all day with temps dropping... Full sun should keep everything melting some. Tonite should lock the snowpack back up with temps around 20F. That rain later this week could really kill off the snowpack, although the 6z GFS looks to want to rebuild it by Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I don't see myself ever chasing unless it's a high end mod risk or better day within 3 hrs of the city. I just don't have the time to invest in driving out to southwest Iowa. Grass now becoming the dominant ground cover as melting continues at breakneck speed. Mud everywhere. Grilling season approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I don't see myself ever chasing unless it's a high end mod risk or better day within 3 hrs of the city. I just don't have the time to invest in driving out to southwest Iowa. Grass now becoming the dominant ground cover as melting continues at breakneck speed. Mud everywhere. Grilling season approaching. I think people limit themselves to specific risk categories when it comes to chasing, and personally any potential is a potential. Hell last year I think all the tornadoes that happened in Southern Lower Michigan were slight risks or see text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 As a spotter I am pretty much confined to a specific geographical location. I would love to someday go on a sponsored chase tour out in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I don't see myself ever chasing unless it's a high end mod risk or better day within 3 hrs of the city. I just don't have the time to invest in driving out to southwest Iowa. Grass now becoming the dominant ground cover as melting continues at breakneck speed. Mud everywhere. Grilling season approaching. Every season is grilling season. edit: remembered you live high up in a condo/apt. Balcony snow removal logistics are rough. That sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 So conservatively lets say 1/2 of them are generous ratings, that is still '5' tornadoes F4 or higher for DTX's area. A number of tornadoes that had hit back then in the Metro area, if they were to hit today would be hitting vastly more populated areas than what was there 30 years ago. That's not quite too. Detroit's population has been in general been stagnant since the 1950s (just now has there been a very slight decline). The only difference is the focus has shifted from a densely populated city of Detroit to its sprawled out suburbs. So while it's true that said number of tornadoes would impact a larger area, the actual number of people impacted hasn't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I think people limit themselves to specific risk categories when it comes to chasing, and personally any potential is a potential. Hell last year I think all the tornadoes that happened in Southern Lower Michigan were slight risks or see text. no not really. High/mod risks are so because the risk is higher. I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. For people who work +40hrs, have limited car access and need 1.5hrs just to get out of the city, i'm not wasting my time on a slight risk. An anecdotal nugget about how michigan's tornadoes last year occured during slight risk events changes nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Every season is grilling season. edit: remembered you live high up in a condo/apt. Balcony snow removal logistics are rough. That sucks. I don't even have a balcony. I have a great park across the street. So my grilling season starts when he snow melts, mud dries up and i can haul the grill out from storage. Last summer featured a ton of good grilling weather, '09 sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Alek- You can grill in your living room. Just run the bathroom vent fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I think people limit themselves to specific risk categories when it comes to chasing, and personally any potential is a potential. Hell last year I think all the tornadoes that happened in Southern Lower Michigan were slight risks or see text. While I can't speak for most areas, I'm not sure why Detroit in particular tends to do better in terms of actual severe weather reports during slight/see text outlooks versus moderate or even high risk outlooks. The only theory I can come up with is in a slight risk outlook we have a lower probability of being impacted by convective deris from upstream MCS (due to reasons only a slight risk was issued in the first place) thus our atmosphere isn't worked over and has a better opportunity to destabilize for fresh t'storm development. Evn as you said I think most of our severe weather last year came from surprise events, see texts or slight risks. I can understand the higher POTENTIAL for severe weather is the reason these higher risk outlooks are issued, but at least anecdotal evidence here shows that potential isn't often achieved (by "often", I mean times when the outlooks are issued). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Most of our snow is gone, it's just enough left to leave a blanket (2-4"?) over the grass. The snow on the streets is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I see the grassy spot over septic tank. Have been over freezing since Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 GFS continues to hint at 4 respectable storms for the rest of February. They look to take similar paths. While there is enough cold air for snow, each storm doesn't really bring down much cold air, which doesn't force the next storm that much further south. Sure things will change but the paths of these storms look to be quite similar so someone is going to cash in. My money is on Minnesota wisconsin and iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I don't even have a balcony. I have a great park across the street. So my grilling season starts when he snow melts, mud dries up and i can haul the grill out from storage. Last summer featured a ton of good grilling weather, '09 sucked. That sucks x 2. I know you could recite all the benefits of high rise living, but still, for me, I couldn't make it without a backyard. Grilling in the park means seagulls, dogs, kids throwing frisbees at your head, and a whole bunch of other annoyances. There's nothing better on a hot summer day than sitting on my lounge chair with a beer, a book, and a cigar or bbqing in privacy. But these are personal preferences. I'm an introvert by nature. Maybe you dig the social aspects of communal living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I don't see myself ever chasing unless it's a high end mod risk or better day within 3 hrs of the city. I just don't have the time to invest in driving out to southwest Iowa. Grass now becoming the dominant ground cover as melting continues at breakneck speed. Mud everywhere. Grilling season approaching. do your best to stay out of that area lol I have never had any luck there. Im down for this chase with everyone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 GFS continues to hint at 4 respectable storms for the rest of February. They look to take similar paths. While there is enough cold air for snow, each storm doesn't really bring down much cold air, which doesn't force the next storm that much further south. Sure things will change but the paths of these storms look to be quite similar so someone is going to cash in. My money is on Minnesota wisconsin and iowa. It looks very similar to the pattern we had in February/March 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Up to 38F Canuck- You must not have nice parks then. Riverside Park here in LaCrosse is beautiful, quiet, scenic... We go there all the time, because it allows the kids room to run. Its huge and you can easily find a quiet area, should you need one. We also have Pettibone, Houska, Copeland, Myrick, and endless smaller parks... I love it. I've never grilled at the park, but back when I was young we use to go out to Goose Island (HUGE PARK/county owned) and do that all the time and then we would fish from the bank or take the boat with. I figure my taxes go to pay for these things, so why not use them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I'd do the chase thing with you guys. Though my free time is pretty limited in the Spring...work consumes a lot of it. But if the timing is right, I'm game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 gosh what I would do for a 3/12/06 repeat after going back and looking at that setup. If it was a weekend, Caplan said he would be down to join me on a chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 MSP Given the depth and extent of the snow cover, one may be surprised that temperatures were able to climb into the mid to upper 40s, with even a couple 50s in mid-February. Would you believe the Rocky Mountains were partly responsible? Well they seemed to play a critical role, as a deep area of low pressure (depicted to the right) drove west northwest winds from the Rockies into the Upper Midwest by Sunday afternoon. Because of the strength of the low within an already intense jet stream, the wind speeds throughout much of the atmosphere were also strong over the Upper Rockies. This ushered air rapidly eastward, down the lee slopes by Sunday morning and into central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin by Sunday afternoon. A numerical model analysis of this can be seen below, with air parcels having tracked from western ID during Saturday afternoon to Minneapolis by Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 NAM/GFS both playing the inversion game for here thursday afternoon. I think we will get 60 degrees thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 It looks very similar to the pattern we had in February/March 2008. Dont remember much that year. I know it was a snowy winter but don't recall feb-march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Dont remember much that year. I know it was a snowy winter but don't recall feb-march Basically it was like the mid-long range GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 no not really. High/mod risks are so because the risk is higher. I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. For people who work +40hrs, have limited car access and need 1.5hrs just to get out of the city, i'm not wasting my time on a slight risk. An anecdotal nugget about how michigan's tornadoes last year occured during slight risk events changes nothing. Alek, I recently searched for LAF's high risk days and I found 7 since 1990, so about 1 day every 3 years. It's probably about the same up that way. Haven't checked into moderate risks but I'd guess there are 2 or 3 days per year on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 gosh what I would do for a 3/12/06 repeat after going back and looking at that setup. If it was a weekend, Caplan said he would be down to join me on a chase. That was so memorable from MO into IL. Loved watching and tracking those supercells online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Alek, I recently searched for LAF's high risk days and I found 7 since 1990, so about 1 day every 3 years. It's probably about the same up that way. Haven't checked into moderate risks but I'd guess there are 2 or 3 days per year on average. Where do you find that past risk info? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Where do you find that past risk info? Thanks. http://www.convectiveoutlook.com/highrisk/spc.htm It has high risk days up to 2006. For more recent days you can just use the SPC site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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