snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 No. Late winter (January and February) are usually warmer -- December is the cold month in a La Nina winter. This winter was an exception because the cold hung on longer. The warmth is coming. I'll buy what the models and the groundhog are saying over some weenies here. Maybe for most of Ohio, but based on what I'm seeing on the EURO/GFS/GGEM/GEFS, north of I-80, this warmup is a 5-7 day deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 No. Late winter (January and February) are usually warmer -- December is the cold month in a La Nina winter. This winter was an exception because the cold hung on longer. The warmth is coming. I'll buy what the models and the groundhog are saying over some weenies here. Actually the most clear-cut sign in a traditional Nina is that the coldest month relative to average is March. This of course has not been a traditional Nina. You go ahead and buy what the groundhog and the LR models are saying, those are two credible sources. The warmingista weenies were calling for mild all winter anyway, so thats a fail right there. We could epic torch the rest of Feb (which we wont) and the winter would still be a below normal winter temp-wise across the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Maybe for most of Ohio, but based on what I'm seeing on the EURO/GFS/GGEM/GEFS, north of I-80, this warmup is a 5-7 day deal. Yup, and only 2 days of that are actually REALLY mild. Its easy for all to forget in a winter so persistently cold as this..but the occasional mild day is normal in ANY winter, not the signal of a pattern change LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 That's one run of one model -- I'm talking about the general trend. Plus, you do realize that 850's of -5C with sunshine and no snow on the ground, this time of the year will yield temps around average -- probably 35 to 40. That's not cold. That's warmer than it is today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Maybe for most of Ohio, but based on what I'm seeing on the EURO/GFS/GGEM/GEFS, north of I-80, this warmup is a 5-7 day deal. Looks like a gradient pattern. Certainly don't think winter is done in the northern tier. The question is how far south the wintry battles will be waged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Yup, and only 2 days of that are actually REALLY mild. Its easy for all to forget in a winter so persistently cold as this..but the occasional mild day is normal in ANY winter, not the signal of a pattern change LOL. It may not be a long term one, but it's still a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Actually the most clear-cut sign in a traditional Nina is that the coldest month relative to average is March. This of course has not been a traditional Nina. You go ahead and buy what the groundhog and the LR models are saying, those are two credible sources. The warmingista weenies were calling for mild all winter anyway, so thats a fail right there. We could epic torch the rest of Feb (which we wont) and the winter would still be a below normal winter temp-wise across the Great Lakes. Listen, I'm just not seeing it. I see the next two weeks as predominantly above normal -- there will be a few days below average thrown in, but they'll be -1 to -4 or not much from average. I see no major snow threats -- maybe a dusting here or there that melts in a day. I just looked up Larry Cosgrove's forecast. I trust LC, because he doesn't treat the weather as if he has a vested interest. I don't see an American newsletter from him, but I did see his Houston forecast. He's forecasting 80+ in Houston all next week, including mid 80s and high humidity by Wednesday. The official NWS forecast, which is probably just a regurgitation of model output, shows Houston in the low 70s Wednesday. Here's what he had to say about the upcoming pattern: I see no challenges to this warm spell until the end of February. If you look at the 500MB forecast, a flat subtropical high over Cuba and Florida will keep a pronounced southwest wind flow across the eastern two-thirds of North America, A new -NAO block will probably form in the vicinity of Iceland in the 11 - 15 day period, but I doubt that any cold influences will be an issue until another combinant -WPO/-AO/-NAO signature arises just below the North Pole around February 26 - 28. Continue reading on Examiner.com: Weekend Weather Forecast For Houston And Vicinity, Friday, February 11, 2011 - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner....1#ixzz1DmPZGdK9 Disclaimer: No copyright violation intended. This constitutes a fair use under 17 U.S.C. Section 107. All rights are owned by Larry Cosgrove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 No. Late winter (January and February) are usually warmer -- December is the cold month in a La Nina winter. This winter was an exception because the cold hung on longer. The warmth is coming. I'll buy what the models and the groundhog are saying over some weenies here. I'd probably believe the worst weenies here before I'd believe the groundhog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 That's one run of one model -- I'm talking about the general trend. Plus, you do realize that 850's of -5C with sunshine and no snow on the ground, this time of the year will yield temps around average -- probably 35 to 40. That's not cold. That's warmer than it is today! It's not just one model run. Most of the models for several runs have indicated that after a substantial warmup next week, temperatures will return to AOB normal. Not as cold as it's been recently, but seasonably cold. Now, it's a gradient type pattern being depicted generally, with the warmest temps in our region closer to the OH river with values dropping off as one goes north from there. So maybe imbyism is causing this clash of interpretations. For example, here at YYZ, the EURO has 850 temps of -18 at 216. GFS at the same time is "milder" at approx. -11, but even that would yield sfc temps below normal, especially if the flow is northerly, which it's currently depicted as. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I'd probably believe the worst weenies here before I'd believe the groundhog. I give OHSnow credit. He's stirring up the juices a bit. Last two days it's been like a morgue in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 thats the problem when spring arrives and you have a large region like this no wonder guys like Bowme, Mich and SSC are talking about winter still and rightfully so while a lot of others are ready for spring ahhh...climo. BUT declaring winter over on feb 12 is also comical. that being said, if i lived on southern Ohio, yeah id be breaking out the golf apparel but to tell northerners winter is over is kinda silly. winter doesnt end in these parts till the end of march, and up in the plains and Bowme's way, april sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I give OHSnow credit. He's stirring up the juices a bit. Last two days it's been like a morgue in here. I agree. It has been boring in this forum the past couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 It may not be a long term one, but it's still a pattern change. Pattern change wasnt the right term for me to use, because absolutely long term or not, this is a big pattern change. I just meant that the warmingistas whove been itching for over 2 months to find SOMETHING are finally seeing a decent thaw and will now proclaim "winters over". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 thats the problem when spring arrives and you have a large region like this no wonder guys like Bowme, Mich and SSC are talking about winter still and rightfully so while a lot of others are ready for spring ahhh...climo. BUT declaring winter over on feb 12 is also comical. that being said, if i lived on southern Ohio, yeah id be breaking out the golf apparel but to tell northerners winter is over is kinda silly. winter doesnt end in these parts till the end of march, and up in the plains and Bowme's way, april sometime. Even southern Ohio can and probably will see more snow before winter is over. From a constant snowcover/constant clouds/constant below freezing temps perspective, yeah winter is on its last legs here. But from a shear snow/snowstorm potential point of view, north of I-80 we have 2+ months to go. Ironically, snowstorm potential seems to be what most on this board are into (I came across a shocking number this winter who said they dont care one way or another about snowcover)....so in that sense...winter has a lllloooong way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Heres a few pictures from yesterday. The 7th annual Motown Winter Blast in downtown Detroit, as well as a random pic of my friends house (I liked everything for a winter pic, the shadows, icicles, sky). We went to the blast right after it opened before the crowds hit. The huge snow slide as awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 This clipper early week looks stronger than any that came through this winter and its up into Canada. Figures. If it came further south it could be a super clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 pretty significant melt off today with the strong sun. hopefully more interesting weather is around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Melting big time here with temps in the mid 40's I have a feeling we will say good bye to the snow tomorrow and things will begin to get back to normal after the epic week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 EURO beyond day 7 is hinting at a boundary setting up somewhere between the Ohio River and I 70 which could be interesting for a few with waves of energy riding along the boundary. Been showing this for several runs in a row now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 This clipper early week looks stronger than any that came through this winter and its up into Canada. Figures. If it came further south it could be a super clipper. Been a while since SEMI has been blessed by such an event...Jan 2004? 10-14 inches over much of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 thats the problem when spring arrives and you have a large region like this no wonder guys like Bowme, Mich and SSC are talking about winter still and rightfully so while a lot of others are ready for spring ahhh...climo. BUT declaring winter over on feb 12 is also comical. that being said, if i lived on southern Ohio, yeah id be breaking out the golf apparel but to tell northerners winter is over is kinda silly. winter doesnt end in these parts till the end of march, and up in the plains and Bowme's way, april sometime. Just reverse psychology in action. Februrary is clealy still winter through the end of the full month. March is the big transition month. Not Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 pretty significant melt off today with the strong sun. hopefully more interesting weather is around the corner. not sure how much we melted here but sun went behind the clouds around midday and we went back to 34 after topping out at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 pretty significant melt off today with the strong sun. hopefully more interesting weather is around the corner. Yeah we didn't even make 40 (39) but we still lost at least a few inches. The sun is definitely a lot stronger than what it was during the New Years torch. The 50s and 60s later this week will really do a number on whatever's left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 DVN.... THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOOST H85 MB TEMPS TO +10C TO +14C BY FRI MORNING ACRS THE AREA SOUTH OF ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE THAT IS A PIECE OF WESTERN L/W TROF EJECTING OUT ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IF THIS VERIFIES OVER ERODED SNOW FIELDS...WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 60S ON FRI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I think some of us need a reminder that February is still Winter.. And this can be common in the Mid West in February.. Blizzard on February 24, 2007 in Madison, WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 Tomorrow is the anniversary of the 2/13/07 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Here a late March Blizzard. Winter isnt over....Its just reloading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I have to LOLZ to the groundhog being a weather authority. That's priceless. Well done Ytterbium...well done. Back to your regular scheduled programming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Tomorrow is the anniversary of the 2/13/07 blizzard. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Its funny because at the first glance of the models your like oh @#$%...Then you look at the calender and it hits you like a freight train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.