snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Early March will be the next time...Until then Meh, it's not a lock by any means, but that sub 240 system being shown by the GGEM/GFS/GEFS could be the next significant threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 To whom??? GFS shows 51F here Friday... I do wonder how far the snow pack can be reduced. Its not totally going away, but i suppose it will get cut in half or more locally. Looks cooler after that. Looking like this will just be a taste... That's ok.. save the good stuff for March and April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Once that first system next week tracks into Canada I'd look for the next low to come a bit south. The gfs and Ggem have had it for several runs. The next week storm looks impressive and should bring down some cold air forcing the next low south. In my eyes this warmup is the January thaw a month late and we still have a month and a half left to go of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 SW wind downsloping off the Niagara escarpment really fooking with the precip here in Toronto. I've noticed this phenomenon a few times this winter but not in any winter previously. ive noted in the past that wierd mesoscale trends can popup for a single winter only. ive always thought i probably wasnt paying attention before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 SPC is not biting the risk for svr weather yet for next weekend in their 4-8 day outlook due to model variation, but at least the fish are starting to show up in the pond. We are entering the season where we can get svr and good snows out of a system. Will just have to wait and see what the models show this coming week. 20-23rd period does look very interesting. The more ice and snow we can melt the better for warmer temps here. I enjoy winter but now I am ready for spring. Chi town has had the coldest winter in 27 years and a storm with the third greatest historic snowfall. South Bend had a record breaking LES. I look out the window here and see snow mounds that look like they will take forever to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 A brief snow squall went through downtown Toronto 15 minutes ago and now it's 100 percent sunshine. Gotta love Toronto weather. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Was it back in January 2008 when southwest Ontario and southeast Michigan were both under tornado watches? I heard a clap of thunder that day. Nina winter, too, right? Going back through my records, yes it was: SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 10:26 PM EST MONDAY 7 JANUARY 2008. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... TORNADO WATCH FOR: =NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT =NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON. A SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO.. THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES..TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== A DYNAMIC LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WINDSOR TO SARNIA CORRIDOR TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT IS STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 90 KM/H AND LOCAL LARGE HAIL OF 2 CENTIMETRES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE..THUS A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. honestly janaury 2008 was the worst and most anomalous torch i have ever seen. days of building warmth and fog, dripping humidities and 850 temps >10C in early janauary UP HERE , ended by a mulit-innch heavy rain event.... incredible...AND capped by tornado watches in SW ontario. here in the hinterlands, it was a devestating torch......we were wiped clean 2-3 feet of snow, and even the piles were essentially obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Ya, early 2008 was amazing. Don't know how much melt we will have here this week with an inversion probably setting up, but at least in the Chi-town and Michiana regions it looks like a gradual thaw. Have concern for the Upper Mississippi valley and Red River though as emphasized in another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 still unclear how much torch will get here. we will warm, but will we torch? usually, we do, but the PV battles tough in the northeast. heavy snow is expected here tomorrow into monday as the clipper rides the battle ground. any torch should hold off until wednesday or thursday.....im not overly optimistic, i believe we will torch considering the insane warmth building in the plains and MW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 ive noted in the past that wierd mesoscale trends can popup for a single winter only. ive always thought i probably wasnt paying attention before I think the latter is more likely in my case. No reason I can think of that the downsloping wouldn't be a perennial occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 A brief snow squall went through downtown Toronto 15 minutes ago and now it's 100 percent sunshine. Gotta love Toronto weather. LOL. Picked up 0.2" from the overnight nuisance snow and that squall missed me. I'll enjoy the the snow we pick up tonight because starting tomorrow we'll probably go a whole week at least without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Amazing, we have yet another sunny day today. The ceilings have tried to go BKN after a period of clear skies after sunrise, but they appear to be mixing back out to SCT again. We may even make it to/above freezing today. In fact (and surprisingly), everyday this month has been sunny except for the 4th-6th period, when that surprise snow event came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 still unclear how much torch will get here. we will warm, but will we torch? usually, we do, but the PV battles tough in the northeast. heavy snow is expected here tomorrow into monday as the clipper rides the battle ground. any torch should hold off until wednesday or thursday.....im not overly optimistic, i believe we will torch considering the insane warmth building in the plains and MW. Torch is sort of a subjective term. To me at least it connotes temperatures significantly above average. So in the context of mid-February, let's say AOA 10c. From what I'm seeing on the 6z GFS, we probably stay close enough to the warm front to keep temps in check, due to poor mixing/associated cloud cover. Not to mention mild, moisture laden winds overriding a cold snowpack, which will invariably produce fog. It'll still be warm, especially relative to what we've been experiencing, but I'd stop well short of calling this a torch. At least how it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Amazing, we have yet another sunny day today. The ceilings have tried to go BKN after a period of clear skies after sunrise, but they appear to be mixing back out to SCT again. In fact (and surprisingly), everyday this month has been sunny except for the 4th-6th period, when that surprise snow event came through. It'll be interesting to see if there is sunshine during the warm up. You would think low clouds would form with the inversion/snowmelt but sometimes it's surprising. I thought during the warm up around New Years that there would be lots of fog but there was basically none here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 It'll be interesting to see if there is sunshine during the warm up. You would think low clouds would form with the inversion/snowmelt but sometimes it's surprising. I thought during the warm up around New Years that there would be lots of fog but there was basically none here. Yeah, definitely. There's quite a bit of dry air to mix into just above the surface inversion, so you never know. It could just be a period of hazy sunshine rather than stratus/fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Even though we very briefly went above freezing yesterday, the real thaw begins today. We're already 32, and will probably top out just under 40. Looks like lower 40s Sun-Tue before 50s Wed and Thu, and maybe lower 60s Friday. If things go really well we could be well into the 60s Friday, but it's too early to tell. We still have 13" on the ground here, but by this time next week even the epic piles and drifts will be down to crusty mounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Torch is sort of a subjective term. To me at least it connotes temperatures significantly above average. So in the context of mid-February, let's say AOA 10c. From what I'm seeing on the 6z GFS, we probably stay close enough to the warm front to keep temps in check, due to poor mixing/associated cloud cover. Not to mention mild, moisture laden winds overriding a cold snowpack, which will invariably produce fog. It'll still be warm, especially relative to what we've been experiencing, but I'd stop well short of calling this a torch. At least how it looks right now. yeah i agree the 6z GFS is not a torch but if something like yesterdays 12z euro or even last nights 00z GFS verifies, its quite ugly. it is all subjective. a thaw for me at this time of the year in this neighborhood, is if we get >5C. a mini-torch is 2 days >5 + rain event with notable impact on the snowpack. a torch if it lasts 3 days >5 + a rain event with signfiicant impact on the snowpack. jan 08 was a blowtorch. well thats my classification. in any case, anytime we see the plains and MW warming up this much, im not going to be overly optimistic. as far as how bad it gets here, we will have a better idea on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 yeah i agree the 6z GFS is not a torch but if something like yesterdays 12z euro or even last nights 00z GFS verifies, its quite ugly. it is all subjective. a thaw for me at this time of the year in this neighborhood, is if we get >5C. a mini-torch is 2 days >5 + rain event with notable impact on the snowpack. a torch if it lasts 3 days >5 + a rain event with signfiicant impact on the snowpack. jan 08 was a blowtorch. well thats my classification. in any case, anytime we see the plains and MW warming up this much, im not going to be overly optimistic. as far as how bad it gets here, we will have a better idea on monday. 12z GFS looks borderline torchy on Friday. Warm front looks like it'd lift well north. Depends on how much sunshine we receive. But as you've mentioned there's some model variability right now, so I wouldn't lay down on the railway tracks yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 12z GFS looks borderline torchy on Friday. Warm front looks like it'd lift well north. Depends on how much sunshine we receive. But as you've mentioned there's some model variability right now, so I wouldn't lay down on the railway tracks yet. the latest NCEP models and RGEM now track the clipper north or over me. this is the first set of runs to do so, after being steadfast south of us for the past 7 days. this is not a good sign IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Decent melting occurring right now. The sun is really doing it's magic. We are now at late Oct sun angles and gaining about 17 minutes of daylight each week and 1 degree latititude every 3rd day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I've been having on and off LES snowshowers, some heavy, but with marginal temps and frequenty sunny breaks, it's been tough to get much to stick. I'll go with 0.1" but it could have been more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I left for Guelph this morning and the minute I hit the expressway going into Kitchener it was an instant whiteout. When I got on to highway 7 between Kitchener and Guelph, I couldn't see fifty feet in front of the car. Caught me completely off guard. After a 45 minute drive that should have taken less than 30, I arrived in Guelph to find blue sky. Picked up 1.6" this morning in town. Anyway, ba-humbug or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Lots of dripping outside right now. Up to 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 37 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Feels like spring out... 35 and sunny with a gusty breeze heralding in the mild springtime temps. Just imagine how warm it's going to feel later this week. Also, the forecast was for temps around 30 today -- so the weather people can't handle this pattern... will probably be close to 60 later this week. I don't buy those 40s they keep spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 not our area but parts of OK got down to -30 a few mornings ago and now baking in the low 60's, thats crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Wow, looks like a traditional La Nina wintertime pattern setting up. Cold in the northwest, warm everywhere else. Almost looks like a summertime Bermuda High pattern on the GFS. Don't know why everyone on here is trying to deny it. I don't see any evidence of a transient warm pattern -- looks like a sustained pattern change to me. How is cold in the nw and warm everywhere else a traditional Nina winter pattern? Ninas are not warm winters traditionally here, they are volatile/changeable winters. This winter has not been that, its been constant cold. And I dont think anyones denying that a warmup is on the way. If anything Id say the denial is the other way, we finally get an overdue thaw and some are clinging to the hope winter is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 How is cold in the nw and warm everywhere else a traditional Nina winter pattern? Ninas are not warm winters traditionally here, they are volatile/changeable winters. This winter has not been that, its been constant cold. And I dont think anyones denying that a warmup is on the way. If anything Id say the denial is the other way, we finally get an overdue thaw and some are clinging to the hope winter is done. No. Late winter (January and February) are usually warmer -- December is the cold month in a La Nina winter. This winter was an exception because the cold hung on longer. The warmth is coming. I'll buy what the models and the groundhog are saying over some weenies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 No. Late winter (January and February) are usually warmer -- December is the cold month in a La Nina winter. This winter was an exception because the cold hung on longer. The warmth is coming. I'll buy what the models and the groundhog are saying over some weenies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 No. Late winter (January and February) are usually warmer -- December is the cold month in a La Nina winter. This winter was an exception because the cold hung on longer. The warmth is coming. I'll buy what the models and the groundhog are saying over some weenies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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