Stebo Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Is it normal to see temps in the 60s-70s flooding the central US this early in the year? No its not too uncommon, but its normally passive and lasts only a couple days, this pattern looks to last longer than a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 No its not too uncommon, but its normally passive and lasts only a couple days, this pattern looks to last longer than a few days. sooner or later we had redistribute the heat down south we've been way to cold for way to long, look like more of a battleground pattern heading into march with a few severe threats but based on what i've heard from a few reliable long range pattern experts we could flip pretty quickly and kick off a decent early season severe weather threat. We could see a back and forth pattern in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 No its not too uncommon, but its normally passive and lasts only a couple days, this pattern looks to last longer than a few days. It does seem like since last autumn it's been nothing but extremes. Why not continue the party? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 sooner or later we had redistribute the heat down south we've been way to cold for way to long, look like more of a battleground pattern heading into march with a few severe threats but based on what i've heard from a few reliable long range pattern experts we could flip pretty quickly and kick off a decent early season severe weather threat. We could see a back and forth pattern in the spring. Yeah I personally would agree 100% with the long range experts that are mentioning the the quick flip and an early severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Alright, I've had enough winter. Looking at temp forecasts for next week really did it for me. Current forecast has only Tuesday staying below 0°C for the daily high. A well deserved break from the miserably cold temps we've endured over the last six weeks. I've developed an itch for using the great outdoors for its potential! Walking, biking, lounging, camping! Snow is fun and all, but for every storm day there is fourteen frigid and depressing days. Sorry snowstormcanuck, but winters got to go! You haven't had enough of winter lol - who you trying to fool? You will be riding SSC's tail in asking how much for us after the torch. Early severe call's are going to fail miserably for us up here.. Enjoy your NE winds WI and MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 You haven't had enough of winter lol - who you trying to fool? You will be riding SSC's tail in asking how much for us after the torch. Early severe call's are going to fail miserably for us up here.. Enjoy your NE winds WI and MI. Bow maybe near the lakes sure, but the flow would be localized. Plus a good enough event could make that NE low level flow irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 You haven't had enough of winter lol - who you trying to fool? You will be riding SSC's tail in asking how much for us after the torch. Early severe call's are going to fail miserably for us up here.. Enjoy your NE winds WI and MI. I won't deny any late season winter storms, but it'll be nice to say goodbye to negative double digit temps and say hello to above freezing daily highs. Some thunder would be a bonus into March, but not expecting any severe weather this far north... just looking forward to the transition from winter to spring. Then, ultimately looking forward to April. For every winter storm in April, there is twenty days of warm fun weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Bow maybe near the lakes sure, but the flow would be localized. Plus a good enough event could make that NE low level flow irrelevant. Boring spring coming up... think the whining for big winter storms was bad the first part of winter - expect part two to commence this spring. MI and WI are fooked.. Think later in June and interesting stuff to follow through august before a dry fall and epic winter.. La La Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I won't deny any late season winter storms, but it'll be nice to say goodbye to negative double digit temps and say hello to above freezing daily highs. Some thunder would be a bonus into March, but not expecting any severe weather this far north... just looking forward to the transition from winter to spring. Then, ultimately looking forward to April. For every winter storm in April, there is twenty days of warm fun weather One lil warm spell... dont let it fool you.. winter is here for a while yet and all this talk of severe already is almost cromartie level laughable. Off to bed... early date with snowmobiling. Tons of pictures to post after this weekend of the epicness out there right now.Road from parents house in franklin to Mineral point on wed.. what a gorgeous route and something I would have never witnessed without winter and the Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 One lil warm spell... dont let it fool you.. winter is here for a while yet and all this talk of severe already is almost cromartie level laughable. Off to bed... early date with snowmobiling. Tons of pictures to post after this weekend of the epicness out there right now.Road from parents house in franklin to Mineral point on wed.. what a gorgeous route and something I would have never witnessed without winter and the Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Boring spring coming up... think the whining for big winter storms was bad the first part of winter - expect part two to commence this spring. MI and WI are fooked.. Think later in June and interesting stuff to follow through august before a dry fall and epic winter.. La La Lock it in. Bow I think you are incorrect here, the pattern is going to flip this week and you'll see how easily/quickly we warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Bow I think you are incorrect here, the pattern is going to flip this week and you'll see how easily/quickly we warm up. Nobody is or ever has denied the warm up and I'm cool (its how we roll down here a lot of the time - playing with the devil has its advantages like 07/08 and a 16" march storm) with it but all this cromartie talk of spring, tulips, and thunderstorms popping up like grandpas weenie on viagra with a early severe season are laughable. Only thing flipping will be the severe weenies waiting for it now that that they premature springulated after a typical southern MW warm up. Nothing points to a warm and stormy spring up here in my gut right now. All I have to do is look north and speculate what indices will rule this spring. Nothing is screaming batten down the hatches up here. Off to bed for real this time.. You warminista's got enough of me tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Nobody is or ever has denied the warm up and I'm cool (its how we roll down here a lot of the time - playing with the devil has its advantages like 07/08 and a 16" march storm) with it but all this cromartie talk of spring, tulips, and thunderstorms popping up like grandpas weenie on viagra with a early severe season are laughable. Only thing flipping will be the severe weenies waiting for it now that that they premature springulated after a typical southern MW warm up. Nothing points to a warm and stormy spring in my gut right now. All I have to do is look north and speculate what indices will rule this spring. Nothing is screaming batten down the hatches up here. Off to bed for real this time.. You warminista's got enough of me tonight. Well I'm not beating the drum of severe starting from next week on, but I could certainly see from Late March on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Well I'm not beating the drum of severe starting from next week on, but I could certainly see from Late March on. Well I think you will be sorely disappointed like most yrs in SE MI let alone late mach. I'm done because anything and everything is still on the table.. No sense going back and forth with my dumb ass speculating - we can come back to this in May. Bet it will look like as good as my prediction of La crosse getting buried in snow early this winter though. La Crosse is far from done with snow yet, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Well I think you will be sorely disappointed like most yrs in SE MI let alone late mach. I'm done because anything and everything is still on the table.. No sense going back and forth with my dumb ass speculating - we can come back to this in May. Bet it will look like as good as my prediction of La crosse getting buried in snow early this winter though. La Crosse is far from done with snow yet, too You might be right about SE MI but as a region as a while I don't think it will be quiet in late March into April. Climo and more specifically La Nina Climo would agree with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 You might be right about SE MI but as a region as a while I don't think it will be quiet in late March into April. Climo and more specifically La Nina Climo would agree with me. It's hard to get good severe weather into Michigan before May. Yeah, it happens but generally it likes to stay down in Indiana and Ohio. It seems like the border is like a warm front barrier in the Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 It's hard to get good severe weather into Michigan before May. Yeah, it happens but generally it likes to stay down in Indiana and Ohio. It seems like the border is like a warm front barrier in the Spring. Hell, last year you couldn't buy a good storm in Indiana. The Wabash river sucked em dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 It's hard to get good severe weather into Michigan before May. Yeah, it happens but generally it likes to stay down in Indiana and Ohio. It seems like the border is like a warm front barrier in the Spring. Typically yes, which is why I see the better chances being for IL/IN/KY/MO/IA but I don't think we will be entirely left out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Alright, I've had enough winter. Looking at temp forecasts for next week really did it for me. Current forecast has only Tuesday staying below 0°C for the daily high. A well deserved break from the miserably cold temps we've endured over the last six weeks. I've developed an itch for using the great outdoors for its potential! Walking, biking, lounging, camping! Snow is fun and all, but for every storm day there is fourteen frigid and depressing days. Sorry snowstormcanuck, but winters got to go! lol, it's mid February. If you're sick of winter already I'm not sure how you made it through the last 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 lol, it's mid February. If you're sick of winter already I'm not sure how you made it through the last 20 years. I'm not too sure either. I've always hated winter as a whole. Why can't we live in Key West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I will say after the way we've been shafted (when it comes to a stormy/cold/snowy pattern anytime this La Nina) we're pretty much owed one. Keep in mind, that means chances for significant snowstorm and above normal snow are likely, not necessarily an epic bomb, and Im sure thats what your talking about. This winter has been cold/snowy for sure. We had 3 feet of snow in a months time from early January to early February. Snowcover and days with snowfall are WAY above normal. That IS a cold/snowy/stormy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Bow I think you are incorrect here, the pattern is going to flip this week and you'll see how easily/quickly we warm up. So you think winter from a snowstorm perspective is done? My my...I disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 You might be right about SE MI but as a region as a while I don't think it will be quiet in late March into April. Climo and more specifically La Nina Climo would agree with me. That is true about La Nina climo. However, also La Nina climo argues for a stormy/snowy March. Also, not in a million years does La Nina climo suggest the entire winter be snowcovered as this ones been. So who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Had 0.4" of wind whipped snow this morning. Snow pack average is a foot (10-14"), oh how I do not want to see it go! BTW, at 43.6", DTW is 0.1" shy of hitting last seasons total, and 0.4" shy of hitting climo for the entire season. Tells me that an above normal season is a lock.The snowy Nina of '07-08 with its 70-100" in SE MI will not be matched however (though this winter was king for snowcover, so I can deal ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 So you think winter from a snowstorm perspective is done? My my...I disagree. No not at all Josh, if anything I think we have one maybe 2 big bullets left in the gun for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 One lil warm spell... dont let it fool you.. winter is here for a while yet and all this talk of severe already is almost cromartie level laughable. Off to bed... early date with snowmobiling. Tons of pictures to post after this weekend of the epicness out there right now.Road from parents house in franklin to Mineral point on wed.. what a gorgeous route and something I would have never witnessed without winter and the Blizzard. Have to agree. I know its been a long, cold winter, but one warm spell does not fortell the end of winter. Sadly, as much as I HATE saying it, we were way overdue for a thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 No not at all Josh, if anything I think we have one maybe 2 big bullets left in the gun for win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 No not at all Josh, if anything I think we have one maybe 2 big bullets left in the gun for winter. Early March will be the next time...Until then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Wow, looks like a traditional La Nina wintertime pattern setting up. Cold in the northwest, warm everywhere else. Almost looks like a summertime Bermuda High pattern on the GFS. Don't know why everyone on here is trying to deny it. I don't see any evidence of a transient warm pattern -- looks like a sustained pattern change to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Early March will be the next time...Until then I'd watch the 20-23rd period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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