Indystorm Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Pattern looks active next week and beyond but we're being progged on the warm side of these systems right now. Yep...Recent GFS runs show increasing warmth out to 384....if this were later in spring I'd really be into svr weather season with the tracks of these systems as currently progged. As it is I'll take some warmth....Huge icicles on buildings here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Minneapolis: THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH HIGHS PROGGED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THINGS REALLY BEGIN TO TAKE OFF NEXT WEEK AS A MASSIVE RIDGE ALOFT SPREADS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. BY MID WEEK...THE NOMADS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY FOR HIGHS GREATER THAN 40 DEGREES IN THE TWIN CITIES IS RIGHT AROUND THE 50 PERCENT RANGE. ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITIES DROP SOME GOING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...THEY SPRING BACK UP FROM THE 22ND THROUGH THE 24TH. THIS CERTAINLY SUGGESTS WE MAY GET OUT OF THE ICE BOX FOR A WHILE BUT ALSO RAISES A CONCERN THAT PERHAPS ICE JAM POTENTIAL ON AREA WATERWAYS MAY BE IN OUR FUTURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 CFS is probably about as accurate as flipping a coin...but fun to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Bring the torch on!! My gutters are a complete log of ice. There has got to be around 2 inches of water in the snowpack. Its gona get swampy around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Ill probably catch hell for saying this, but I want the thaw. We can have another 6" snow, I don't care. This 2-4" New Indiana Glacier out in my back yard needs to go. This ice pack sucks. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Ill probably catch hell for saying this, but I want the thaw. We can have another 6" snow, I don't care. This 2-4" New Indiana Glacier out in my back yard needs to go. This ice pack sucks. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Well you'll get no hell from me, I'm with ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Bored. Predict how much snow you'll see the rest of the way... I'll say 14.6" just to piss Stebo off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 lol @ 2 feet of snow in AR. Sucks to be me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 12z ECMWF has 60F+ 2M temps up to the QC for next Thursday with 50F+ DP's up to the IL/WI border and S. Michigan. will be interesting to see if the models are being to agressive in the middle to longe range with the warmth, big snowpack down in the plains and midwest. whoever is on the cold side of the possible systems every few days could end up with quite a bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Weekend clipper system still looks interesting. Good continuity from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Bored. Predict how much snow you'll see the rest of the way... I'll say 14.6" just to piss Stebo off. :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Nope, the party is over for now. . Under what reasoning? We are not even in the warm up yet and you are saying winter is over. In the 2nd week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 NWS point and click forecast has us going down to -14 tonight. Would be the coldest of the season. I think this will probably be the last subzero night of the season. By the time the pattern shifts back to a colder one we'll be much later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 will be interesting to see if the models are being to agressive in the middle to longe range with the warmth, big snowpack down in the plains and midwest. whoever is on the cold side of the possible systems every few days could end up with quite a bit of snow. I doubt it. The snow pack in the Plains will soon be a distant memory. It might even hit 50F here later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Under what reasoning? We are not even in the warm up yet and you are saying winter is over. In the 2nd week of February. Re-read his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Bored. Predict how much snow you'll see the rest of the way... I'll say 14.6" just to piss Stebo off. 4.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 After watching our 14" snow pack disintegrate into nothingness in a matter of days during the heart of winter I have no doubt our snow will be a distant memory later next week. It's been pretty cool though seeing so much on the ground. Other than '99 I can't remember the snow cover being as deep as it was last week (18"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re-read his post. Yeah my mistake, selective reading again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'd like to spend winter in Miami and summer in Fairbanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The rest of the winter, I would go for 12". Reasoning being La Nina's tend to hang onto the cold a little longer and tend to have surprise late season snowfalls, plus I think we get colder after the warmup for the end of the month into early next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The rest of the winter, I would go for 12". Reasoning being La Nina's tend to hang onto the cold a little longer and tend to have surprise late season snowfalls, plus I think we get colder after the warmup for the end of the month into early next month. I'm gonna be pessimistic and go with 3.5" here. We already have 15"+ what we normally receive in a season. The area from Dubuque through here, and down towards LAF really cashed in on the December clippers. I honestly don't expect anything more than a few light events sometime in March. Anything else we get would just be a bonus as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'm gonna be pessimistic and go with 3.5" here. We already have 15"+ what we normally receive in a season. The area from Dubuque through here, and down towards LAF really cashed in on the December clippers. I honestly don't expect anything more than a few light events sometime in March. Anything else we get would just be a bonus as far as I'm concerned. 3.5" for the rest of the winter? That could come in one clipper. I'd have to believe it would be more than that, personally I know my number is on the high end but if had to go to an absolute low number I'd go 6" for the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Bring the torch on!! My gutters are a complete log of ice. There has got to be around 2 inches of water in the snowpack. Its gona get swampy around here. Yep, about 2" of water. Core sample for 1pm today was snow depth 13", water content 1.9". Add in all the massive water-packed snowbanks, and it would not be pretty. This has been as good a winter as you will ever see in SE MI for snowcover, and Id hate to see it end. Weve had snow on the ground Dec 6-31 and Jan 5-present. Basically an entirely white winter with a brief intermission around New Years. If it was going to stay warm its one thing, but you know esp in a Nina, winter will probably make a furious return in March. Hope we can save some of the snow as a crusty base, but a lot will depend on how warm it ACTUALLY gets (GFS is nowhere near the torch the euro is here) as well as dewpoints, fog, winds, sun, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 8.4"...7.2" of it comes in one storm. Reasoning? None and quite frankly a wild a** guess, but it'd be nice if LAF can finish this season in the top 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 The rest of the winter, I would go for 12". Reasoning being La Nina's tend to hang onto the cold a little longer and tend to have surprise late season snowfalls, plus I think we get colder after the warmup for the end of the month into early next month. Climo for DTW is 14.4" the rest of the way. So far 43.1" has fallen, should be at 29.6" to date. February entered like the top 15 snowiest Februaries 5 days into the month lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 8.4"...7.2" of it comes in one storm. Reasoning? None and quite frankly a wild a** guess, but it'd be nice if LAF can finish this season in the top 5. Pessimism for the loss, optimism for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Pessimism for the loss, optimism for the win. I will try my best to will LAF into the top 5. Screw the warmwantistas/winter's over crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 3.5" for the rest of the winter? That could come in one clipper. I'd have to believe it would be more than that, personally I know my number is on the high end but if had to go to an absolute low number I'd go 6" for the rest of the winter. Maybe this weekend... The back of the winter has been broke..But it shouldnt discourage people. If I remember correctly SEMI was rocked by a freak April 2009 Snowstorm. The previous March was riddled with small warm spells. A couple days before the snowstorm the temp was around 50 if I remember. So this winter isnt over..its just easing up. March 2009 Detroit temp chart.. http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/histGraphAll?day=1&year=2009&month=3&ID=KDET&type=1&width=614 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I will try my best to will LAF into the top 5. Screw the warmwantistas/winter's over crowd. Amen on the screw the winters over crowd lol. It has been an "old-fashioned, hard winter" as the old folks like to say. We see this every year this time when a thaw happens, and as much as I HATE admitting, it we are way overdue for a thaw. While a top 5 certainly looks unlikely here, a top 20 is another story. DTW is at 43.1" of snow and 55 days with 1"+ snowcover thru Feb 9th. Climo for an entire winter season is 44.0" snowfall and 49 days of 1"+ snowcover. DTW needs to 56.7" of more to enter the 20 snowiest winters list (since 1880), so at least 13.6" more, which is certainly doable. They need to hit 65 days of 1"+ snowcover to crack into the top 20 whitest winters since 1908, so 10 more days, again, certainly doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Maybe this weekend... The back of the winter has been broke..But it shouldnt discourage people. If I remember correctly SEMI was rocked by a freak April 2009 Snowstorm. The previous March was riddled with small warm spells. A couple days before the snowstorm the temp was around 50 if I remember. So this winter isnt over..its just easing up. March 2009 Detroit temp chart.. http://www.wundergro...ype=1&width=614 March 2009 was an anomaly, as was March 2010. Keep in mind, DTW averages nearly 9" in March/April (7.0" Mar, 1.7" Apr). Winter in general, especially as cold and white as this one is, may be past its prime, but it is CERTAINLY far from over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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