turtlehurricane Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Still some dripping here from roofs even though it's 4° F. If we ever get above freezing it's gonna be a snowacaust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Nothing real cold to speak of in the whole run of the GFS Aside from the blizzard last week, this cold pattern we've been in since January hasn't been real conducive for big snowstorms. Get the baroclinic zone over the lakes and you could see some real fireworks in the latter half of February, even though rain/warmth will be a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 going to have a serious pattern change coming up. That was from the 6z GFS. I'm all for putting us in a SE ridge/Rockies trough pattern, no matter how we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Aside from the blizzard last week, this cold pattern we've been in since January hasn't been real conducive for big snowstorms. Get the baroclinic zone over the lakes and you could see some real fireworks in the latter half of February, even though rain/warmth will be a threat. This +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Still some dripping here from roofs even though it's 4° F. If we ever get above freezing it's gonna be a snowacaust. Sun is doing its dirty work on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 This +100 I really like the teleconnections. -PNA is a double edged sword. You lose the that ridge which funnels arctic air into the Plains/lakes but with a zonal flow there's nothing impeding these moist Pacific storms from traversing the country. After that possible warmup around 240, NAO starts to decline, which could produce the potent combination of moisture rich systems interacting with sufficiently cold air locked in place over the eastern Lakes. ORH_Will talks a lot about -PNA/-NAO being pretty good for New England and I think you can extrapolate that westward some. Although once you start getting too far south and west you can run into some problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I expect models to trend things down over the next 2-3 weeks...I would expect most of to get good chances for snow from Feb 20th to March 15th. then it's done here. probably holds on longer up there. I expect 2 more watchers here and one more moderate to heavy winter event. this am we has 2-3 inches of snow and ice packed and its very cold. hard to believe 60s are coming soon The Ridge looks impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I really like the teleconnections. -PNA is a double edged sword. You lose the that ridge which funnels arctic air into the Plains/lakes but with a zonal flow there's nothing impeding these moist Pacific storms from traversing the country. After that possible warmup around 240, NAO starts to decline, which could produce the potent combination of moisture rich systems interacting with sufficiently cold air locked in place over the eastern Lakes. ORH_Will talks a lot about -PNA/-NAO being pretty good for New England and I think you can extrapolate that westward some. Although once you start getting too far south and west you can run into some problems. Yeah its never easy for the lakes, but anything to bring in more moisture-laden storms I am all for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 And it looks like the warm-up for early next week will be either delayed or be muted somewhat. Definitely been delayed at least. Those temps EC is forecasting for Sunday-Monday would be 10 degrees too warm if the GFS is correct. It'll be tougher for us to escape the warmth with that 240 hour system. All the models have been pretty consistent on taking that one WAY north. Although I notice that huge vortex in the Atlantic SE of Greenland. If that thing can get nudged south some, it might changes things. Seems crazy that I want that vortex back over NFLD considering how badly it screwed us between Dec 2009-Dec 2010. In this case though it might help. well the GFS at 12z has at least muted the thaw somewhat with the day 10 event, its still there but not as bad. i also noticed the day 10 euro last night didnt develop the huge warm ridge in the prairiers that would likely slide east like the run before it. note the clipper this weekend has also been trending south on its exit rather than up over central quebec. the more southerly bumps we get, the better.....the PV means business and seems trapped by the block on the other side of the pole. it certianly looks a possible huge gradient pattern setting up.....obviously im the safest, but i dont feel particularly safe. defintely ironic that we need the NAO or PV to help us out here...... im going to take on event at a time in this potentially ugly pattern.....first focus on the clipper which looks solid although Env Canadas temps are too warm....... and then hope after that the clipper shoots south and the gradient for the day 10 system is more favorable with the PV helping and not sliding too far west. it could be a productive pattern, but also a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'm all for putting us in a SE ridge/Rockies trough pattern, no matter how we get there. cant say i disagree just keep that PV lurking enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 some sick meso low action over southern lake michigan this morning, someone is about to get smoked! Light snow trying to fire up here along some weak convergence on the western flank. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=63797&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 well the GFS at 12z has at least muted the thaw somewhat with the day 10 event, its still there but not as bad. i also noticed the day 10 euro last night didnt develop the huge warm ridge in the prairiers that would likely slide east like the run before it. note the clipper this weekend has also been trending south on its exit rather than up over central quebec. the more southerly bumps we get, the better.....the PV means business and seems trapped by the block on the other side of the pole. it certianly looks a possible huge gradient pattern setting up.....obviously im the safest, but i dont feel particularly safe. defintely ironic that we need the NAO or PV to help us out here...... im going to take on event at a time in this potentially ugly pattern.....first focus on the clipper which looks solid although Env Canadas temps are too warm....... and then hope after that the clipper shoots south and the gradient for the day 10 system is more favorable with the PV helping and not sliding too far west. it could be a productive pattern, but also a disaster. Haven't seen much talk lately about the late winter blocking that was progged back in December. If that blocking doesn't develop, and we make it through the next couple weeks, I think climo will dictate that suppression of storms will be increasingly unlikely. The "disaster" is on the other side of the coin. That -NAO doesn't develop or is insufficiently strong and the Pacific firehose torches us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Agree with the gradient pattern coming up. A lot of folks should be in play with the best chances being the farther north you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Haven't seen much talk lately about the late winter blocking that was progged back in December. If that blocking doesn't develop, and we make it through the next couple weeks, I think climo will dictate that suppression of storms will be increasingly unlikely. The "disaster" is on the other side of the coin. That -NAO doesn't develop or is insufficiently strong and the Pacific firehose torches us. yeah part of the problem for me is that its been 2+ yrs since we have been in a 'normal', nonsuppressive pattern that would be productive for the lakes, so im having a hard time remembering what are good and bad signals for a gradient pattern on the models in the longrange .... its hard to not get caught up on the east coast torch talk but a lot of that is likely 41S. .....thats probably the way it was in productive yrs for us. defintely going to be a fine balancing act but it could work out for the lower lakes, i am most wary of the day 10 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 congrats Tony PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1022 AM CST TUE FEB 08 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1019 AM HEAVY SNOW VALPARAISO 41.48N 87.05W 02/08/2011 M3.5 INCH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER STORM TOTAL. ROADS ARE SNOW COVERED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 http://www.crh.noaa....=63797&source=0 totally awesome, love those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 totally awesome, love those things. are you still digging out? are kids back at school? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Agree with the gradient pattern coming up. A lot of folks should be in play with the best chances being the farther north you go. As we discussed earlier, we'll probably be smack dab in the middle of the battle zone, but I'll take my chances. I think realistically, the last week of February through the first half of March will be our best and last opportunity to get the ever elusive "big dog" for LAF this winter. Would really put a cherry on top of this beautiful winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 As we discussed earlier, we'll probably be smack dab in the middle of the battle zone, but I'll take my chances. I think realistically, the last week of February through the first half of March will be our best and last opportunity to get the ever elusive "big dog" for LAF this winter. Would really put a cherry on top of this beautiful winter... Agree for most of us on this, but exp the Southern more cites like SPG, STL, INDY, LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 As we discussed earlier, we'll probably be smack dab in the middle of the battle zone, but I'll take my chances. I think realistically, the last week of February through the first half of March will be our best and last opportunity to get the ever elusive "big dog" for LAF this winter. Would really put a cherry on top of this beautiful winter... Yeah, our late March into April snow climo isn't really anything to write home about, so we should probably try to get it done before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 As long as we can get absolutely NO west-based blocking with this pattern (+AO with a west-based -NAO would be our death beds) then I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 In the meantime, I'm going to enjoy our sunny weather for the next few days. Stay away lake stratus!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I noticed 12Z GFS has 50's/60F next week in Omaha... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Snownado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well we've gone SCT-BKN now (SCT to the NE and BKN to the SW). Hopefully we can scatter out the lake stratus from this point on, since it's so late in the day and the air's so dry. The last thing I would want is for a perfectly sunny day to end on a cloudy note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 the RUC wants to bring snow to my area with a more north track, the gem and euro also agree an inch maybe two is not out of the question. the entire collumn would aid in snow growth so that would help. I think we get 1-2 out of this here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 In the meantime, I'm going to enjoy our sunny weather for the next few days. Stay away lake stratus!!! I love this view..You can you really see how the western end of Lake Eire and all of Lake St Clair are frozen solid. Not sure if its a cloud deck but the Saginaw Bay looks solid also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I love this view..You can you really see how the western end of Lake Eire and all of Lake St Clair are frozen solid. Not sure if its a cloud deck but the Saginaw Bay looks solid also. I don't like this satellite view, as you can see the UHI effect of the Chicago metro area and its effect on snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I don't like this satellite view, as you can see the UHI effect of the Chicago metro area and its effect on snow cover that's not so much UHI as it is roads, cars, trees etc that are snow free because of plowing and other civilized activities. Open corn fields show snow much better than forrests as well (see northwoods wisconsin). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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