Hoosier Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Figured I'd get this started in case any long range fantasy storms show up. What will the month hold? Using moderate/strong Ninas that more closely resemble what has been going on this winter, a prominent hobbyist is throwing out some old time analogs like 1873, 1904, 1910 and 1917. I think it's hard to go against a colder than average month at this point for most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ah yes, 1910. Had one of Ohio's greatest snowstorms ever. Urbana had 25 inches....................................wow. I'm not sure about 1873 but the other years had extreme negative anomalies in the northern Plains and cold in many other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Those who have more knowledge than me. Traditionally I thought, a La Nina meant that the US was likely looking at a SE ridge being present, that hasn't really been the case thus far and models don't really show it happening in the longer range either. Any particular reason for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Those who have more knowledge than me. Traditionally I thought, a La Nina meant that the US was likely looking at a SE ridge being present, that hasn't really been the case thus far and models don't really show it happening in the longer range either. Any particular reason for this? I think it's been mitigated by the chronic -NAO regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The first week of February could prove to be fun (I'm talking snowstorm fun) for many in our reigon. And you know when I (debbie downer) say it there's reason to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The first week of February could prove to be fun (I'm talking snowstorm fun) for many in our reigon. And you know when I (debbie downer) say it there's reason to get excited. My birthday is February 7th, lets luck into a blizzard for my birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My birthday is February 7th, lets luck into a blizzard for my birthday. The GFS/EURO/GGEM ensembles are starting to look better for the period in question too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My birthday is February 7th, lets luck into a blizzard for my birthday. I always found it ironic that we have the same birth-date and live in the same city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm loving the end of the GGEM. EURO shows the same thing to an extent. Like I said, the first week of February could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm loving the end of the GGEM. EURO shows the same thing to an extent. Like I said, the first week of February could be fun. Well Im hoping so. Since October Ive been touting February all along as being THE month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well Im hoping so. Since October Ive been touting February all along as being THE month! I admit i will be amazed if this call of your pans out considering how active last Feb was and knowing that typically of the winter months Feb is the least active especially with the big events in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well... nothing could be worse then the last two weeks in January are going to be like. So far maybe 2" and not expecting much more this month. It's time for January to leave... I could use a February '08 around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I always found it ironic that we have the same birth-date and live in the same city. Yeah, it is quite win even though I'm the oldest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I admit i will be amazed if this call of your pans out considering how active last Feb was and knowing that typically of the winter months Feb is the least active especially with the big events in these parts. Yeah gonna be hard to top last Feb, 28.5" imby, 27.0" at DTW...but what the heck, we had two low-snow marches in a row, why not two blockbuster February's? Last Feb we had 3 big snowstorms imby (8.0, 7.7, 5.6) and several more small ones. Now, the way weve been nickel/diming along, should that continue with the cold, an above average is very likely with or without a big storm. January doesnt seem impressive, but it is already above normal with more snow before months end. Im thinking a big storm is coming, but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well... nothing could be worse then the last two weeks in January are going to be like. So far maybe 2" and not expecting much more this month. It's time for January to leave... I could use a February '08 around here. TOL is at 9.5" in Jan. Do you mean 2" in the last 2 weeks in Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think we start getting into some what of stormy pattern right around the 10th...then going into March should be eventfull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's still a ways out in model land, but here's the AO, NAO, and PNA ensemble forecasts as we enter February. As seen with the first image, the AO is the hardest of the 3 to predict. Still, it seems we could be entering a pattern that is somewhat like November or even late October. If the ensembles are correct, those that are hoping for the December pattern to NOT repeat, look to be in luck. Of course as I said, look at the mean errors and make your own best educated guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's still a ways out in model land, but here's the AO, NAO, and PNA ensemble forecasts as we enter February. As seen with the first image, the AO is the hardest of the 3 to predict. Still, it seems we could be entering a pattern that is somewhat like November or even late October. If the ensembles are correct, those that are hoping for the December pattern to NOT repeat, look to be in luck. Of course as I said, look at the mean errors and make your own best educated guess. I'll take my chances with a pattern like October/November over the one we had in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 TOL is at 9.5" in Jan. Do you mean 2" in the last 2 weeks in Jan? I meant for the total for January 16th-31st. We got maybe 1" or so last week and maybe another 1" this week. Other then early January... this month is/was brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hello, wouldn't Feb figure to take on a more typical nina pattern? What I'm referencing is that so far this winter the stratosphere warming has been off the charts, and the SE ridge has been all but non existent. I can see a more nina-ish pattern emerging after the 10th with modifying temps, but also a more stormy and potentially snowy pattern once the SE ridge flexes it's muscle. I keep hearing JB mention a relaxation around mid month, is he suggesting a torch or solid thaw at that time? I do not have the accu pro so this is off other sites and not verified by me. I do think that the GL, the western parts are due to get into a hyper active pattern of storminess around that time and run into March. Anyone else think the stratosphere warming may have played a role in the winter first half? Just a hunch by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I think we should just go ahead and rename this thread to Winter Cancel with the subtitle, Who give's a crap anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I think we should just go ahead and rename this thread to Winter Cancel with the subtitle, Who give's a crap anymore? You're killing me Jim. Positive thoughts my friend...positive thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I think we should just go ahead and rename this thread to Winter Cancel with the subtitle, Who give's a crap anymore? Thinking that has some merit. I think we are stuck in the current pattern for the forseeable future. If the SE ridge builds in for Feb to start shoving storms up this way, it will do it just in time to send us a bunch of sloppy mix events. February is not an "all snow" month in these parts. In fact starting in late Feb we usually see a decent thaw around here. March might bring us a surprise "cement snow" snow storm, but I am to the point where I just don't care. I want to get through the cold, and into the warm weather. This the first winter in the last few that I am actively looking forward to spring, and it's not even February yet. I generally don't start getting anxious for spring until the end of Feb... We have had some snow pack, and it has been cold, but the dearth of decent snow since the beginning of the month has been a tad disheartening. We had one event around here that brought more than 4" of snow, other than that it's been anything from a T to 1" The seasonal trends have been solidly against the GL as far as "big" storms are concerned at this point, and if it does change as referenced in the earlier post, it's going to change just in time for winter to have a sloppy finish for us. Not a whole lot of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Flood potential looks huge on the Mississippi...something to watch. Going to need some slow melting over the next few months. If we hold onto this snow into spring...could get ugly. First outlook just came out... I wonder if they couldn't drop the river levels even right now to about 2ft!? The flow must be low right now with everything pretty much frozen. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=arx&storyid=63207&source=0 FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ITSELF...SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALMOST A SURETY...EVEN GIVEN IDEAL MELTING CONDITIONS. BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT WATER LEVELS COULD REACH MODERATE OR EVEN MAJOR CATEGORIES. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS THUS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THIS SPRING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 No thoughts of warm weather for the foreseeable future: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z GFS says to leave for Mexico next week... Looks brutal... Some -20Fs? Looking likely. At least this week, although cloudy, has been mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 You're killing me Jim. Positive thoughts my friend...positive thoughts. How can I be positive with this kinda stuff going on? http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Perhaps "Wait 'til next winter!" is the appropriate sentiment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Hopefully we'll have a chance to use our snowblower this year. Otherwise we'll have to change the oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Perhaps "Wait 'til next winter!" is the appropriate sentiment? If you're a Cubs fan...go ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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