Search the Community
Showing results for tags 'we need severe'.
Found 1 result
-
A warm front is set to lift northeast across New England Thursday night through Friday morning ushering in a much hotter and more humid airmass. Several weak disturbances will cross the Northeast Friday which may spark off isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Friday night. All eyes then turn to Saturday... A substantial longwave trough moves across southeastern Canada through the day Saturday with a belt of strong westerlies traversing much of New England. An elongated cold front extending from near Hudson Bay through southeast Canada and into the Ohio Valley will advance southeast through the day Saturday with a pre-frontal trough becoming established across the Northeast. Out ahead of these features and very warm and humid airmass is expected with surface temperatures climbing into the lower 80's with dewpoints well into the 60's. While poor mid-level lapse rates will tamper instability, the combination of temperatures into the 80's and dewpoints well into the 60's should contribute to 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE. Forecast models indicate 30-50 knots of mid-level flow traversing the region (though weakening through the afternoon). Despite the fact the stronger shortwave forcing is along and north of the International border, modest mid-level flow should help contribute to storm organization ahead of the pre-frontal trough. As such multiple lines of showers and thunderstorms are expected develop and traverse southern New England Saturday afternoon into the evening. Given MLCape values on order of 1000-1500 J/KG the potential will exists for some of the thunderstorms to become severe. Despite the rather modest low-level winds characterized by 850mb winds <30 knots, forecast models develop steep low-level apse rates >8.5 -9 C/KM. These lapse rates, combined with the moderate buoyancy would support the potential for scattered wind damage. While flow is modest in the low-levels, some forecast models indicate some low-level directional shear becoming present in the vicinity of the pre-frontal trough. As such an isolated brief tornado would also be possible with the highest potential from southern New Hampshire into Worcester County. WE NEED SEVER!!!!!!!!!
