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Might this be an interesting first half of September for late season heat and mid season Tropical cyclones into the NYC area??? Have even less clue about the latter half of September. Modeling does imply a warm first week of September, with a weakness in the Gulf States. That weakness is possibly related to tropical cyclones trying to run northward into or toward the the Gulf Coast states, and then find the weakness in the broad coast-coast southern USA 500MB ridge, tending to head northeast along or the interior of the East Coast. How far north might they travel, if this implied pattern is generally correct? Applied the NOAA.GOV CPC week 1-4 forecasts issued the 20th-22nd, and the September update from 8/15, as well as the 12z/22 GEFS 500 mb members, and 12z/22 NAEFS mean sfc temperature departure from normal for the period Aug 30-Sept 6. This does not mean NYC is heading for possibly another 10" month, but does suggest we're in a pattern that favors normal or above normal both for precip/temp this September in our NYC subforum. Long ranging beyond a week or two is not easy, and so this topic starter is just that... a tease of implied potential that can become wrong. MJO forecasts were not attempted to be applied.
