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Showing results for tags 'power outages'.
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Periods of rain, some of it heavy at times is destined for most of the NYC subforum Friday-Saturday as low pressure develops off the mid Atlantic coast into a vertically deep slow moving cyclone. PW increases at times to near 1.7" in warm advection along the inverted trough Friday then the pinwheeling PWAT circles back around our area Saturday. Gusty northeast-east winds Friday morning to 35 MPH and the constancy of northeast flow this week at the time of the highest tides in Sept should yield at least minor coastal Flooding within 2 hours of high tides Friday and possibly moderate coastal flooding at the highest tide cycle Saturday or Sunday as the backwash of the offshore storm shoots some 45 MPH north-northeast winds down the NJ coast by Sunday morning. The previous 3-4 day rains are attached, and the numbers for this coming one may exceed 6" again in parts of the NYC subforum. If so, where? It's possible, despite all this projected rain, that flooding might be imited to a few small areas. Too early to be sure as of 447PM/27. The EPS has been most aggressive with this system since 9/24 cycles and the 12z/27 EPS mean rainfall is attached. These values are quite high and much higher than the GEFS 12z/27 cycle with the GEPS midway between. If it causes fresh water flooding---where? Not sure this will be very much freshwater flooding except possibly NJ/CT/urban LI. This topic should serve also for the rainfall reports. at 505PM added the tag power outages. If this rainfall develops per the more aggressive 12z/27 EPS mean, rain softened ground from this past weekend combined with new 2+" rainfall may allow spotty power outages due to tree uproots of still fully leaved trees.- 887 replies
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- heavy rain
- flooding potential
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Monitor NWS products including NHC and local offices from OKX and PHI. This Topic doesn't guarantee anything but serves as a platform for comment. Suggest starting with actual 5+" rainfalls, or unusual flooding. Note: WPC is already bullish on Tuesday's rainfall. Tropical Debby remnants-east coast trough-RRQ upper level jet related pattern this week had WPC intermittently forecasting 7+" of rain in NJ and possibly coastal CT/LI. PA and se NYS may also be involved in big rain. PRE conditions may??? exist late this week (Fri-Sat?) but uncertain in our NYC subforum. Added a few graphics. WPC overall has been advertising 5+ in its graphics for our area since 06z/4. Below is the WPC 7 day rainfall forecast based on ensembles etc. Sampler past 3 days rainfall via CoCoRaHs. Machine ECMWF EFI, Machine GEFS ARI and UFHS, WPC D2 excessive and their D5. You'll note the GEFS machine tools extend beyond D5. This weeklong accumulative event may be over by Sunday the 11th. FFG is very dry south of I80, so far. This could. change radically by Friday night. Ensemble river stage products right now are conservative but highlight I95 corridor in our area. FFG for now is most vulnerable I80 northward in NJ. What to do? Just think of what you may??? need to alter in your plans due to flooded roads/streams, cellars. Potential doesn't mean it occurs. 727A/5 Initial title Potential POCKETS 5-12" of rain by 18z Sunday. Suggest OBS Tue-Sunday only when exceeding 5".123411
- 527 replies
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- 2
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- flash flooding
- river flooding
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This first event is slated mainly for Monday night-early Tuesday night but with a pulse of showers, some heavy occurring overnight Sunday night and potential for bands of high wind and or heavy rain remaining in the NYC subforum into early Wednesday, depending on the departure of the eventual nor'easter. Max gust for e LI may get close to 70 MPH with wind damage 'potential' of 50 MPH gusts s of I84 in CT into far se NYS through ne NJ. Fully leaved tree branches with potential for sodden ground uproots Tuesday due to heavy rainfall and the gusts should result in pockets of power outages from simply broken branches. If it looks extensive, we will update the topic title. Max rainfall seems to be targeting CT/se NYS/NYC metro-ne NJ but proximity of max inflow-moisture transport still showing modeling variability for the primary target. In any case... it appears likely that along and north of I78 there will be periodic showers overnight with new rainfall by sunrise ranging from a few hundredths to possibly 1". After a break Monday, bands of heavy showers should be developing north and northwest into the area Monday evening and slow their northwest to west progress Tuesday before turning southward later Tuesday night. By 8AM Wed, isolated 6" rains may have occurred with a general 1.5-3" in the subforum. FF potential while initially limited by recent dryness, the rainfall rates and amounts in banding will eventually determine where any FF potential will be realized-it's just too early to determine, as of this 720PM Sunday writing. Please follow all future NWS warnings/statements. Let's see what the OBS herein tell us about the modeling by Tuesday night. Edited title rainfall up from 1.5-4 iso 6, to 2-5, iso 8. Edited title at 1025A/26 to like 40-60KT gust focused on CT-LI.
- 228 replies
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- 4
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- heavy rain
- flash flooding
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