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Showing results for tags 'polar vortex'.
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Factors: El Nino: east leaning high end strong to low end super, ONI of 1.8-2.0. MEI expected to be lower, but still in strong nino territory. Regardless, the El Niño is expected to be quite powerful and a major pattern driver. Polar region: +NAO expected, with a strong and circular polar vortex parked over the North Pole. The Siberian snowcover is advancing at a below normal rate, which favors a strong polar vortex and +NAO in the winter. The solar max also is correlated with a +NAO. Pacific pattern: +EPO, -PNA expected early on, transitioning to weakly -EPO and +PNA in Feb-Mar. The PDO is rising, but I am expecting there to be a “lag effect” where it takes a few months to break out of the raging -PDO pattern that has been taking place the past couple of years. AGW: The climate has changed, we are significantly warmer than we were during some of my analogs (72-73 being my top analog, and 57-58 being another one). Therefore, the expected temp profile needs to be adjusted a few degrees higher for these analogs to adjust for the modern climate. Storm track: Right now we are seeing storms move across the Pacific Northwest and are tracking well west of the area, similar to last winter. It is likely that this is related to the -PDO. I do think that will change in Feb-Mar, but overall I expect the storm track to remain inland, rather than the slightly offshore track that would lead to snowier outcomes for the Boston area. This due to a combination of the expected lack of blocking and western troughing during the first half of winter. Snow forecast: 20-30 inches of snow for the Boston area, +4 to +5 AN DJF. What could go wrong? A lot. The El Niño could be weaker than expected, especially the MEI. A polar vortex split is highly unlikely due to the factors I mentioned above, but a disruption is possible. This could lead to a more wintry outcome than expected, but could also lead to a winter like last year if the cold air is on the other side of the globe. It is weather after all, and weather is humbling for even the best meteorologists. It would be foolish for an amateur weenie like myself to be arrogant enough to think I have it all figured out, but I sure as hell am going to give it a shot. If I’m wrong, I will learn from it. I love the cold and snow, but the factors I am looking at have me leaning towards lows tracking to our west, which is a mild outcome for New England. That said, I do think we will have a couple shots for a good old fashioned nor’easter/blizzard once the pacific starts to cooperate a bit more in Feb-Mar (expected due to Nino climo + weakening -PDO regime). I don’t think we will get a ton of opportunities, but I do think the window will be just enough that we get one to break our way. -
As a lover of weather, you owe it to yourself to invest in other things, other than gamestock One way to get your feet weight using your love of weather is by trading commodity ETF's such as natural gas. They can be traded at your brokerage firm like Fidelity, etc. For example, since I started telling clients 2 weeks ago about the Polar Vortex, natural gas prices have rallied some 13% in two days; that's not bad considering keeping your money in cash or a money market makes less than 1/2 of 1% Another major snowstorm is coming to the eastern U.S. this weekend and due to the negative Arctic Oscillation Index. This report here talks a bit more about that and why February and potentially March will be cold https://www.bestweatherinc.com/commodities/how-we-predicted-the-arctic-pig-for-february-setting-the-energy-markets-on-fire/
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As a lover of the weather, many of you are probably interested and potentially talented enough to learn how to use your skill to trade commodity futures and conservative options such as natural gas (UNG), coffee (JO) and the grain market. While everyone gets excited about snowstorms, there is just as much potential excitement watching stocks and commodities affected by weather. Yes, watching stocks such as Apple and Amazon soar over the years may. not be your cup of tea, so why not learn how to use weather forecasts to make investments in things affected by weather. While I am firm believer in climate change and a warming planet, this winter has the potential to be much colder. I began telling clients last week that I thought we would go into a negative Arctic Oscillation Phase as shown on the upper right. Other than La Nina, it is quite possible that "aerosols" from the historic western fires are getting caught up in the atmosphere and warming the Arctic. This will help the AO index to go negative with cold late fall weather in at least the Midwest and possibly the eastern U.S. OCTOBER GLOBAL RAINFALL ANAMOLIES WHEN THE AO INDEX IS NEGATIVE My teleconnection program at www.climatepredict.com is free for you to use and you can click on different teleconnections such as the AO index and see historical rainfall, snowfall and temperature trends months in advance. Notice, for example, how in October other commodities such as coffee, wheat and soybeans are influenced by the negative AO index. I will be starting a much less expensive, monthly global commodity weather newsletter that is much more affordable from my web site www.bestweatherinc.com. and if you are interested in learning about commodities and weather you can always sign up for a FREE trial Regards, Jim
