The area in the SW Atlantic being watched since the weekend was designated Invest 92L earlier this evening. This evening’s TWO also raised odds of TCG back up from 20% to the Saturday max of 30%.
Although several models had this as either a TD or TS landfalling in the SE US Thu/Fri on at least one run on Saturday (GFS/Euro/UKMET/ICON) and the GFS continued that into Sunday, no model has shown a TC for the last couple of days. Instead they all have been showing either a very weak LLC or just a trough. Since this is likely headed toward (fairly close to) my general area and will probably give me at least a little rain late week, I’m following this pretty closely despite odds still being pretty low for TCG. Even if it there’s no TCG, it will still be interesting to track.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alberto, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of low pressure has formed about 300 miles east of
the northwestern Bahamas this evening with disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of
this system is possible while the low moves west-northwestward and
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or Georgia early on
Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.