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Showing results for tags 'flooding'.
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The boring season continues here but the first two weeks of Met summer look favorable as far as us not roasting goes. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlook favors BN temps and near to bn precip. The first two days of met summer have produced low 70s yesterday and only mid-60s at 1pm here with rainfall both days. The countdown is on until the first true cold front of fall.
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Hurricane Debby - flooding rain threat region wide
olafminesaw posted a topic in Southeastern States
The WPC is bullish on heavy rain inland. Coastal areas still the main risk region with the possibility for the biggest flood event since Florence.
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Please follow all current and future NWS watches, Warnings and statements. This thread can serve as the one stop shop for both forum participant expectations and observations. Already as of Friday afternoon December 8, flood related watches have been issued for a wide area centered on the I-95 corridor with wind damage potential expected to lie east of I95, excepting possibly in isolated severe thunderstorms later Sunday. Wet snowfall accumulations could slow travel in the Poconos northeastward Midnight to Noon Monday morning. 19Z/8 December Blend of Models snowfall and and rainfall through Monday has been added to show some of the basis of the watches/concerns. Wind guidance has decreased during the past couple of days as the cold front and associated low pressure system drift across the NYC subforum late Sunday and intensifies a little slower. GEFS 18z/8 wind guidance for 50KT gusts as seen through Polar Wx is less than 40% for the eastern tip of LI. This lower wind expectation may also limit coastal flooding to more of a minor event. No matter, there is time for the models to adjust the expected results. So we have an event...not sure how serious but it will impact travel over our area. Continue monitoring the models, including ensembles and of course NWS products. 820P/8 At 851AM Monday December 11 posted review data. The wind did not work out on 50 knots gusts. The rain and snow did. So far, I've seen about 20 streams or thereabouts from southern New England to Philly to either be or forecast to go into minor flood, and one or 2 may go to moderate. Power outages were mostly NYS and ne PA where wet 31-33F snowfall exceeded 4" and wind gusts may have added to power outages. High Point NJ had 5" at 1500'. Modeling was overall good... especially the elevation dependent clarity on positive added snowfall. 19/ -
Well, PTC has been designated off the Florida coast. Models have really honed in on the NC coast from Cape Fear to Hatteras as a landfall threat. Models are also indicating this could become fully tropical before landfall, and possibly strengthen to a high-end TS. As a short notice event, folks should probably prepare for the equivalent of a hurricane landfall. The forecast track also could be nudged west, as some models are showing. Areas from the Triangle-east need to pay attention. This is likely to produce higher impacts than Idalia for the state.
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Now the dreaded season (for me) is upon us. Heat, storms, flooding and waiting on that first cold front in September to arrive and seeing those first lows in the 40s. I don't know what the summer will bring, but we know it will be hot and humid. Severe season is already off to a bad start with the tornado outbreak that spurred a lot of fatalities last week. I know it can't be avoided but I hope we don't have any more this spring.
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Looks like the first ten days or so will be warm, but that is not a lock. After three years of La Nina, we are probably closing-in on our last few months of this ENSO phase. La Nina's often yield warm Januarys, but something makes me think we buck the trend this month for at least part of the month. I have January as AN in my seasonal forecast, but a portion of the last 20 days of the month could be quite cold. I still expect some wild swings this winter w/ a base warm pattern and very cold interludes.- 923 replies
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Since we do have a variety of forum posters in areas that will see snow/sleet/ZR - at least initially and on the backend, plus there is a flood threat, along with some potential advisory-level winds and possibly record breaking cold, decided to go ahead and make an obs thread. Currently misty and mostly virga and 36 with dp 32 here in NW Philly. -
Meteorological Spring hits March 1st, thus begins the quiet season on the forums. This thread should suffice until fall for any long range disco. I doubt the last flakes have fallen this year but I don't really expect another widespread winter threat either. It was definitely a Plateau to Western Tennessee winter. Tough for Eastern areas not to do any better with virtually the entire month of January being BN for temps. The flood threat, as it always seems to be these days, is definitely elevated again this spring. The severe threat, I'll leave that to Jeff, Jax, and the rest of the severe gurus. -
We don't get a ton of activity once severe season ends, so this thread should carry us til September/Fall.
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Thursday will be a regional severe wx outbreak. @CheeselandSkies I think SPC was waiting for American guidance to come toward the ECMWF. It was stubbornly slow this time. Regardless of how we got here, we are at hatched ENH Day 3 now. First thing I noticed with 12Z guidance is that 500/200 mb winds are forecast WSW. Some of the sloppy South days those winds are SSW. From the SW is plenty of turning. From the WSW as forecast offers robust turning with height. No strange 700 mb winds, smooth forecast hodographs. LLJ is still forecast S or SSW, correct for South severe, even on the squirrelly GFS runs. Winds of course strengthen with height too. Warm sector looks a little bigger than last week defined by northward extent of the synoptic warm front. That does not necessarily mean intense severe weather farther north. That'll depend on the outflow boundary situated south of the warm front, and influenced by midday rain. Undisturbed warm sector soundings should have a little EML and lots of instability. Background pattern is there for a severe weather outbreak. Mesoscale details remain up in the air as usual Day 3, including the size of the region impacted.
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Going to get this loaded and on-deck for observations for December, January, and February. Specific events will likely have their own observation threads. This thread is for the time in between events. Winter is coming! In honor of the last Skywalker movie...
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Long range modeling is well into meteorological spring now. Things also get pretty quiet in here beyond winter, so probably not a huge need for monthly threads for a while. That said, we are coming out of a huge flooding/rain event and the GFS is showing a possible return to those conditions. The 16 day rain total, from 00z shows 10-12 inches falling over the period. So the extremely wet patten looks to continue. There may or may not be a brief cold shot in the early month period and there could be a winter threat in there, though obviously have to be heavily skeptical of it. After that, if we can believe the weeklies, warmth is back for the remainder of March.
