Virtually all of us are aware of our wet July August. CP is poised to exceed 10" of rainfall, for only the second time in its recorded history dating back to 1869. Despite the controversy involved with the CP rainfall data of 1983, the two successive month record stands alone, back to March-April 1983 and as Bluewave noted, EWR also exceeded. I've not checked any Cooperative program data from that time, but there may be other supporting information for the CP data.
What date, if any, do you expect CP to exceed 9.99" this August? Closing date for your date prediction is 1159 PM Wednesday August 25. (no editing of your comment after calendar Aug 25) What do you win? NIX... except some back slaps from your American Weather friends.
I'll start the ball rolling: Guessing will not exceed- certainly don't see this as a gimme, at least not yet (I can change my mind up to 1159PM tomorrow). So, this is an uncertain forecast-maybe not using the ensemble data to my best advantage but playing conservative, despite odds would say we should see normal 1 week qpf these last 7 days.
Also, I can move this topic elsewhere if you wish... I just thought it meshes well with the events that have just passed, and possibly ahead in September.
Added Bluewave post below... thank you for your work on this.
The topic title was edited 8/28 in (parentheses) .
Th