...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
inches.
* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua,
and Cattaraugus counties.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Wednesday. The heaviest
snow will fall from the pre-dawn hours through mid to late
morning.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slushy and very slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute.
This will be a heavy, wet snow, and may result in isolated
power outages and a few downed tree limbs.
It appears that there will be a window of at least several hours
late tonight and Wednesday morning when the snowfall rates will
be heavy enough not have too much of a problem sticking to
grassy and untreated surfaces at onset. In fact, some mesoscale
guidance suggesting the potential for snowfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour in some areas. A challenging part of the forecast
is trying to figure out how much snow is able to accumulate on
warmer pavement surfaces which could limit snowfall amounts, but
this should only be an issue very early on. Once paved surfaces
get a layer of snow, accumulation will certainly be no problem
thereafter. Enhancement from the lakes could also come into play
as the flow turns more northerly which could send amounts a bit
higher.
The synoptic snow should quickly clear much of the area by Wednesday
afternoon, setting the stage for some lake effect snow showers
Wednesday night. Northwest flow will focus most of this into the
western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and from Orleans County
eastward across Rochester to Oswego County and down into the Finger
Lakes off Lake Ontario. Upslope flow will also keep more widespread
snow showers going across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.
We will likely see additional localized accumulations in the
most persistent bands.