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Preliminary Snow thoughts for this Weekend and snow map
USCAPEWEATHERAF posted a blog entry in Once a legend always a legend
What I am thinking preliminarily right now for this weekend as ocean effect snow gives way to a northern stream (arctic jet stream) disturbance running through the flow amps a bit as it reaches the East Coast of the US and perhaps tries to tilt negatively for a time this Friday and Saturday. There are many different disturbances in the flow this weekend that could turn something meager into a beast of a storm. The runs this weekend of showing a monster hit are no longer showing this due to the presence of a strong upper level low over the NE pacific Ocean influencing the departure of the positive values in the PNA region. If this disturbance were to weaken or split into two groups, one moving westward into the northern Pacific and the other piece of the low moving into the US, then the ridge would be able to build itself upwards once again and positively influence our troughing in a more positive way this weekend. However, there is poor sampling in this part of the Pacific Ocean, and there is no way in knowing how the PNA ridge will react to a split in the disturbance energy field. Some models collapse the ridge temporarily while others recharge it later on into Monday through the rest of the New Year first week. therefore, models are now signaling there will not be a full phase between the Arctic jet and the Pacific jet so there will be no bombogenesis present this weekend, however, models are keying in on a potential one jet bombing low pressure center as it takes off, off the NJ coastline sometime Sunday and produce its own snow shield, this could put down a 1-2" swath of snow from western VT to eastern and southern ME and north of the MA Pike, while areas south of the MA Pike see 2-4" generally, while the South Coast of MA, Ri and SW CT see about 4-8" due to the high snow ratios and then the cape cod area east of Barnstable and Hyannis could see upwards of 8-12" or more of snow as ocean effect adds to the fluff factor and a very little of moisture can lead to high amounts of snow. I am expecting models to back more precip onto the SNE coastline than currently projected first because of the OES processes and also because I expect the storm to be further northwest in the end and strengthen a little faster in earlier developmental phase. I will have another map after the 00z runs tonight if I need to change anything.