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Have started a low confidence thread since the impacts could be significant for part of our area. Ensembles imply that whatever the remnants of Fred, they track northward into the eastern USA with its own PWAT blob and potential for squally gusts of 30-40 knots passing into our very close to our area PA/NJ/LI southward to the Delmarva during the middle or end of next week. Indirectly and of interest to me is that the seeming evolving pattern will have a separate moisture blob somewhere in VA-MD, parked there by the Saturday morning CFP in our NYC subforum. That separate blob of moisture, I think, has a good chance of being pushed northward, into our area early next week, well ahead of the Fred remnants. IFFFFF, we get both blobs of RH overriding the northward drifting warm front, I think we'd be talking over 5" of rain somewhere in the mid Atlantic states. So at this early early stage as my own heads up: Do we see only the advance frontal moisture arrive next week, or do we receive leftover Fred moisture (possibly two fairly large rain events)? Added 00z/12 deterministic single member EC PWAT for early next week showing northward advancing moisture pools.
