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Will the current dry stretch continue? Euro is quite torchy Friday the 3rd
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All mid to long term discussion is in met fall at this point. This should carry us until Nov 20th or so, when December/winter starts showing up on models. Blah weather to begin fall, if the GFS is correct. Lingering heat that clings on like an unwelcome in-law on it. If the GFS is being it's normal, likely ridiculous self, we may be lucky. The Canadian says "what heat?" over the next 10 days.
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This is potentially a failed topic 7-12 days in advance, but Eta and/or Theta remnant moisture or the actual ET transitioning leftover tropical wave has a chance of advancing into our NYC forum area either midweek, or next weekend. Reasoning is based on an ensembled strong WAR near Bermuda forcing any Tropical systems that enter the GOM early next week, inland over the eastern USA, then northward and eventually east-northeast by the time it reaches our latitude. The 52 member NAEFS and WPC have qpf in the eastern USA by the middle of next week. Additionally, there is a substantial RRQ of the upper level jet during mid week over se Canada, and then next weekend it is modeled to redevelop southward into New England. RR Quads of the upper level jet are favorable for generating heavy qpf near a surface front with PWAT over 1.6". This is not saying it will occur... but we may find it's worthwhile having a topic to discuss our views/supporting guidance as we advance in time. IF....IFFF...the remnants of the tropical system miss the first opportunity to accelerate northeastward the middle of next week, then a colder scenario could unfold next weekend, but that colder scenario would be the less likely, threading the needle, so to speak. For now: I'm thinking 1-3" rainfall opportunity either next Wednesday or Thursday (already 1" 12z/4 GEFS/EPS) or maybe again next weekend. So... this is just a topic that may come in handy based on the idea that the main trough in the USA the next two weeks is in the west with a strong ridge over the western Atlantic and east coast. 403P/4
