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Thursday will be a regional severe wx outbreak. @CheeselandSkies I think SPC was waiting for American guidance to come toward the ECMWF. It was stubbornly slow this time. Regardless of how we got here, we are at hatched ENH Day 3 now. First thing I noticed with 12Z guidance is that 500/200 mb winds are forecast WSW. Some of the sloppy South days those winds are SSW. From the SW is plenty of turning. From the WSW as forecast offers robust turning with height. No strange 700 mb winds, smooth forecast hodographs. LLJ is still forecast S or SSW, correct for South severe, even on the squirrelly GFS runs. Winds of course strengthen with height too. Warm sector looks a little bigger than last week defined by northward extent of the synoptic warm front. That does not necessarily mean intense severe weather farther north. That'll depend on the outflow boundary situated south of the warm front, and influenced by midday rain. Undisturbed warm sector soundings should have a little EML and lots of instability. Background pattern is there for a severe weather outbreak. Mesoscale details remain up in the air as usual Day 3, including the size of the region impacted.
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