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  1. Good Tuesday morning Dec 10 to everyone... I'm hoping patience works for winter snow - NYC metro. In the meantime, a fairly high impact storm is likely with potential for a squall line forming NJ coast into w CT during Wednesday afternoon contributing to downward transfer of some of the 80KT Southw...
  2. Periods of rain, some of it heavy at times is destined for most of the NYC subforum Friday-Saturday as low pressure develops off the mid Atlantic coast into a vertically deep slow moving cyclone. PW increases at times to near 1.7" in warm advection along the inverted trough Friday then the pinwheeli...
  3. The above hopefully encapsulates the likelihood of two upcoming significant east coast storms. Changes will occur from the some of the attached supporting graphics but we're in line for more significant weather and I'm sort of concerned about flood potential. This time maybe wet snowfall NYC.? Pleas...
  4. Added 12z/26 Blend of models rainfall, the WPC 22z/26 three day rainfall forecast, and a sample from the 18z/26 HRRRX ending 18z/Thursday, which in my mind shows the potential narrow axis of 2-3"+ of rain. If that ends up over the Passaic River Basin, then minor flooding would resume on parts of th...
  5. Please follow National Weather Service warnings/statements. Starting from another 10 degree morning in NYC, a rapidly changing weather scenario will cause some power outages, accidents (despite a Holiday weekend) and slippery travel for a time in a fairly large portion of the forum, in part...
  6. Active Pacific pattern assisting downstream northeast USA blocking of two large 500MB trough passages next week. This should result in at least one Nor'easter and possibly a classic fall severe weather event if a 985MB low moves northward through central PA. Max isolated rainfall potential of...
  7. This first event is slated mainly for Monday night-early Tuesday night but with a pulse of showers, some heavy occurring overnight Sunday night and potential for bands of high wind and or heavy rain remaining in the NYC subforum into early Wednesday, depending on the departure of the eventual nor'ea...
  8. September second dawns with NYC having been doused with ~7.2" of rain from the remnants of IDA, resulting in death and major flooding in the NYC metro area. September normal rainfall is about 4.31". The target is 10" for September, which is possible and would be a first time in the 150+ year histor...
  9. Nowcasting the the frontal boundary period of strong thunderstorms w heavy rain, lightnng strikes, hail, mainly along and south of I80 this evening. NYC seems to be on the north fringe but worthy of monitoring. There may be a second batch after 1AM Tuesday?
  10. 650A Tuesday Aug 31: adjusted headline with mdi-iso Major impact esp NJ/LI, Dropped PRE since no TC and therefore no criteria. 6AM Sunday August 29 thread title update. Added general 2-8" rainfall, added possible PRE, and withdrew the ? of direct or indirect. Description of increasingl...
  11. Have started a low confidence thread since the impacts could be significant for part of our area. Ensembles imply that whatever the remnants of Fred, they track northward into the eastern USA with its own PWAT blob and potential for squally gusts of 30-40 knots passing into our very close to our a...
  12. 553P/12: South of I80 and also all of LI: probably no snow except possibly a short period of wet snow, melting on contact Friday. For the interior suburbs, especially elevations nw to ne of NYC, this could become a problem wet snow impacting power, and for those with heart conditions - safe...
  13. Topic Edit 508AM: Added HIGH IMPACT and the time back in to the topic and extended 4 hours. Strongest winds in NJ/ne PA/se NYS roughly 10PM-4A, NYC/se NYS 1A-6A, LI/CT 2A-to possibly as late as 9A/25 e tip of LI. Minimum wind gust on LI 55 MPH with max 75MPH, NYC-se NYS minimum wind 50 MPH isolate...
  14. Good Wednesday morning everyone, I've followed a recent example on the New England forum and offer this topic as a start over at 1PM with obs-nowcasts. The tags included hopefully cover the gamut of potential amounts. If we are certain about daily records being exceeded please add and ditto if we g...
  15. Edit topic: 525A Wednesday 12/16: No change in thinking including uncertainties along I95. I just cannot shake the basics: S+ axis is usually 90 miles left of the 850 low and the northern half of the 700MB low and the deformation zone near 500 MB with contribution from the nose of the 850MB 50-65...
  16. This topic for Friday-Sunday dual event is posted with much lower issuing confidence than the topics of 11/11-15, and 11/30-12/01. There may be several verifiable flood (not flash flood) warnings for rivers-small stream in northern NJ-northwest of I95 by Sunday morning from a widespread 1-2"...
  17. Caution: VERYYYYYYY early and this could end up much less robust than outlined below, if the northern and southern streams don't phase, or phase early enough into a closed LOW somewhere over NYS/PA/OHIO. (something always changes from what we see 7 days away but it's posted since there may be some...
  18. Leading mid level frontogenesis (FGEN) developing northeastward ahead of remnant DELTA will probably begin showers-sprinkles over NJ/NYC during Sunday afternoon-evening. Subsequent intensifying bands of FGEN associated with a probable sfc low crossing NJ Monday to Cape Cod early Tuesday will lead to...
  19. Despite the fact that it hadn't rained for more than two weeks (Sept 10th general last significant rainfall), the upcoming pattern will probably produce two significant rainfall episodes, Tuesday and then Wednesday-early Thu. One or both of these could result in a few NWS issued Flash Flood Warnings...
  20. Have attached relatively high 6 hour FFG, plus the first week of Sept departure from normal rainfall, and the ~Aug 30 NAEFS 52 member D8-14 pattern that suggested near or above normal rainfall along the east coast for week two of Sept, that was posted on p2 of the Sept thread... with a cooler patter...
  21. I'll be away for a large portion of this time frame so creating a possible avenue of posts, IF SVR materializes. Have seen a few models with a separate more northerly strong shear zone near I78 to southern LI early tonight. Added a couple of graphics. This matches the SPC D1 Slight Risk. While I thi...
  22. Monday-Tuesday: Issued a low confidence topic for more widespread heavy thunderstorms with potential for 2-3" max rainfalls (this was modeled for Sunday several days ago by the EC-but delayed for most of our area-except Ocean County- til Monday). KI is up, actually quite high for Monday morning so...
  23. Hi! Decided to start the topic. It would be for rainfall reports primarily, and easing of some recent dryness in a few spots of our forum. FF not likely except maybe southern Ocean County? Lesser flood advisories would probably occur for poor drainage urban flooding Sunday near NYC (IF I'm...
  24. Good Thursday morning, Decided to start a combined topic covering Saturday night, Sunday afternoon and the uncertain impact of ISAIAS this coming Monday-Tuesday. ISAIAS has track uncertainties until everything gets re-organized Friday. Thereafter, I think the EPS/GEFS should nail whether or n...
  25. LOW chance of exceeding 4" but this is worthy of awareness, I think. Have reviewed most of the typically used 12z/6 modeling, and WPC/SPC guidance. The scenario is a weak wsw flow aloft at 700 mb, over a very moist (near 15C dew point) 850MB vorticity rich wind shift across NJ (sse-sw) with 50...
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