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Showing results for tags 'El Nino'.
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Factors: El Nino: east leaning high end strong to low end super, ONI of 1.8-2.0. MEI expected to be lower, but still in strong nino territory. Regardless, the El Niño is expected to be quite powerful and a major pattern driver. Polar region: +NAO expected, with a strong and circular polar vortex parked over the North Pole. The Siberian snowcover is advancing at a below normal rate, which favors a strong polar vortex and +NAO in the winter. The solar max also is correlated with a +NAO. Pacific pattern: +EPO, -PNA expected early on, transitioning to weakly -EPO and +PNA in Feb-Mar. The PDO is rising, but I am expecting there to be a “lag effect” where it takes a few months to break out of the raging -PDO pattern that has been taking place the past couple of years. AGW: The climate has changed, we are significantly warmer than we were during some of my analogs (72-73 being my top analog, and 57-58 being another one). Therefore, the expected temp profile needs to be adjusted a few degrees higher for these analogs to adjust for the modern climate. Storm track: Right now we are seeing storms move across the Pacific Northwest and are tracking well west of the area, similar to last winter. It is likely that this is related to the -PDO. I do think that will change in Feb-Mar, but overall I expect the storm track to remain inland, rather than the slightly offshore track that would lead to snowier outcomes for the Boston area. This due to a combination of the expected lack of blocking and western troughing during the first half of winter. Snow forecast: 20-30 inches of snow for the Boston area, +4 to +5 AN DJF. What could go wrong? A lot. The El Niño could be weaker than expected, especially the MEI. A polar vortex split is highly unlikely due to the factors I mentioned above, but a disruption is possible. This could lead to a more wintry outcome than expected, but could also lead to a winter like last year if the cold air is on the other side of the globe. It is weather after all, and weather is humbling for even the best meteorologists. It would be foolish for an amateur weenie like myself to be arrogant enough to think I have it all figured out, but I sure as hell am going to give it a shot. If I’m wrong, I will learn from it. I love the cold and snow, but the factors I am looking at have me leaning towards lows tracking to our west, which is a mild outcome for New England. That said, I do think we will have a couple shots for a good old fashioned nor’easter/blizzard once the pacific starts to cooperate a bit more in Feb-Mar (expected due to Nino climo + weakening -PDO regime). I don’t think we will get a ton of opportunities, but I do think the window will be just enough that we get one to break our way. -
There is an airport in New Jersey... Much of my weather knowledge is based on internet searches. -
This winter could be a lot like the 2011-2012 winter, stay tuned for further updates.
