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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    12z NAM bringing ice north of 40 in middle TN
  2. TellicoWx
    GFS trying to follow with another system possibly a few days after the second one
  3. TellicoWx
    RGEM has been consistent...ICON also slowed down some...timing will play a big factor....still think it's more of a nuisance ice if anything at all.
  4. TellicoWx
    0z ICON and RGEM coming in a touch colder at the onset of precip for 1st system
  5. TellicoWx
    I've been lurking...you guys do a great job, and covered everything I could have added. Think we are headed for model mayhem...just gut feeling we may have some wild times ahead (May end up with 100" of fantasy snow but been awhile since we had modeling trying to sort thru this type upcoming pattern). For system #1, globals always has a hard time seeing the very low level cold (resolution not designed to) that gets trapped in the microclimates of the eastern valley...always has seemed like ice is a "surprise" event to most.
  6. TellicoWx
    You guys along I40 and points north in eastern valley wouldn't let your guard down on system #1...last few runs keep taking small steps back south.
  7. TellicoWx
    22° temp spread across the county..sitting at 70.1 currently
  8. TellicoWx
    Tractor trailer flipped at Lenoir City exit on 75...Hwy 411 is beginning to ice between McMinn Co and Madisonville
  9. TellicoWx
  10. TellicoWx
    Sheriff deputy is at the I75 exit in Sweetwater, said it has turned into a solid sheet of ice on the whole thing...can't respond.
  11. TellicoWx
    I75 beginning to ice over here...wreck at mm 61
  12. TellicoWx
    Officially below freezing..31.8 with light rain...no model had freezing rain anywhere near southern Monroe.
  13. TellicoWx
    23z HRRR for my area. Sounding..40 Reality...32.4 DP 29 Skyway temp has started falling, went from 43 to 39 in last hour at 2000'...way colder than modeled as well.
  14. TellicoWx
    Here where I'm at, we always get WAA...still waiting. Made it up to 43.9..currently 34.3 with no wind. DP has went from 30 to 28 in last hour.
  15. TellicoWx
    CAMs still adding about 2-4" around Knox with the Lee
  16. TellicoWx
    Not liking the 3k NAM FZR totals for my area...it's closest so far on ground truth temps.
  17. TellicoWx
    And this is in response to the Lee if it forms up MRX AFD: The same guidance suggests a surge of colder air aloft will arrive tonight, potentially leading to light snow tonight
  18. TellicoWx
    This is the part that's gonna catch alot people off guard in the rain areas. MRX AFD: any wet roads will undergo a flash freeze tonight as temperatures fall into the teens and winds remain light. Black ice is a near certainty, and road crews will be challenged with the low temperatures.
  19. TellicoWx
    According to CAMs it's beginning to form now...should see it fully formed around 03z
  20. TellicoWx
    One of the tricks it may be up to, is Lee are notorious for being under modeled 6+ hours out on precip. If it hangs around as CAMs suggest tonight, could be interesting for everyone.
  21. TellicoWx
    As the pressure has started to rise, the 850s can start pulling back south. Add in the rates able to tap that, time of day it's occurring, downslope winds starting to ease up and switch..and you have a great recipe. Look at the time stamps of the valley PWS coinciding with everyone posting how goose feathers have picked up.
  22. TellicoWx
    While this has been a very complex and surprising system..don't think it's done with all of its tricks.
  23. TellicoWx
    That definitely didn't help matters..more heating makes it harder to scour out, especially if you lose radiational cooling. Bath tub theory..clouds act as a partial clog to drain out the heat.
  24. TellicoWx
    Great analysis...I think in the end the wave that generates the Lee Low wasn't well handled. Once in range the models start being able to hone in so to speak. Combine it with the plateau slowing things down naturally...it stalled and pushed back the Arctic air, especially at the downslope prone areas. With the pressure stabilizing now, more areas are going to be on the correct side of the Lee. Allows the artic to resume its push.
  25. TellicoWx
    Pressure has bottomed and leveled..wave has passed by and temps are responding (Sweetwater PWS). If you have stayed all snow...buckle up buttercups..you are about to be rocked lol
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