TellicoWx

Photo courtesy WPVFD...small section of the shoulder on Hwy 30 has slide off

Trying to get more info, but per West Polk FD...A section of westbound Hwy 30 in Polk Co is closed..either due to a slide or a section of the road collapsed.

Hwy 321 is closed again at the Kinzel Springs rockslide

Delta Flight from Milwaukee struck by lightning and made emergency landing at Chattanooga airport.

From GSP Twitter page, Newfound Gap. Can't help but wonder how this may actually increase the slide potential across the higher elevations once the warm are pushes thru and unthaws the ground.

18z NAM doubled the totals across SE TN thru Fri evening. Went from 1.5-2 to 3-4

Current conditions Ft Payne AL: Rain rate 1.13" hr..total 1.04" Nickel size hail reported and numerous lightning strikes...temp 39.2 Impressive dynamics.

TVA began flow reduction at the tributary dams here in East TN at noon today.

Just had a quick burst of moderate sleet here...cold not wanting to budge quickly.

Prob belongs in the other thread, but the 12z GEFS keeps the flow setup over the same region thru the run...ugly run for the flood threat areas. If we can't shut the Gulf down, this threat may extend well beyond current thinking. 12z GEFS (Complete run total):

12z GFS hangs the initial front across SE TN instead of pushing thru into N GA. Def something to watch.

Don't like how 00z suite has started..NAM quicker with onset, larger shield with WF, and less of a break. Rate of decent here is slowing over last couple hours and still near flood stage, need every hour we can get. As Carver mentioned earlier, will not take much of anything to top the banks again (let alone the 3+ the 3k is showing for this next event for near the state line.

Nearing 4 Trillion Gals forecast for TN. KY: 3.4 Tril, 6.47 Max, 4.84 Avg AL: 2.9 Tril, 6.57 Max, 3.21 Avg MS: 3.6 Tril, 6.56 Max, 4.27 Avg 7.3 Trillion just for OH/TN watershed.

WPC going 2-3" for midweek across SE TN...5-7" still thru weekend.

Each system has been like a stepping block. Definitely a rising "base". At 2000 cubic feet second we enter flood stage here.

18z GFS joins the other suites in the LR not shutting the Gulf down after this weekend.

It's lose/lose cause they had to open them here..i live right beside the Tellico River here in SE TN and we went into flood stage early this morning, if the tributary dams had not been pushing what they were, we would have had numerous water rescues. We are nearing 3" already, plus the modeled 6-7 thru this weekend and we will exceed the previous guidance from a few days ago. *bad part, as has been with everything modeled this winter on all models, is the bust factor (whether its pattern recognition, snowfall, or precip). Nearly every system has busted on the high side here this winter (except the snow one lol).

First one i posted was 240...i has all the systems

Totals thru the weekend system...Euro has 2 more systems next week. 1 Mon/Mon night (for southern areas), 2 Tues night/Wed region wide. Both have heavy rainfall.

EPS looks to follow the GEFS/Euro Op in increasing totals...hate to be TVA looking at the data. Its a lose/lose situation nearly.

12z GEFS and 12z Euro Op (waiting on EPS)

As Janet has mentioned...todays 12z suite is ugly region wide (pretty much every watershed into the MS from KY to the gulf gets hammered. Was hoping the Euro would disagree with the GEFS, but not. Theme of this winter looks to roll on...rain...24-36 hr break...rinse/repeat.

Nickajack is running wide open...nearing 1 mil gallon a sec.

Only good news I see across modeling, is the timing..with the spacing of the systems it allows enough drying for TVA to keep drawing down and FFG to lessen a little, but river guidance still remains the same.

As has been the case most winter...ensemble and short range hi res is busting low here. GEFS was closer (1.1), EPS (1.0), and the 3k NAM (.8) vs reality (1.6). Not sure about other locations, but when you combine what has fallen with what is modeled on the ensembles, the 7-9 consistently shown at the start of the weekend looks on track.