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TellicoWx

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  1. TellicoWx
    6z Euro Total Snow and Snow Depth
  2. TellicoWx
    Then little brother (6z GFS) says wait hold my beer....lol. Go to bed GFS.
  3. TellicoWx
    Euro times an increase of moisture across the eastern valley and arrival of the 32° mark (4-5am for valley along 75) about as good as it can get in this setup.
  4. TellicoWx
    Fairly same for plateau west, but lowered somewhat over east.
  5. TellicoWx
    GEFS looks better at 18z vs 6z today, although the 0z NAM (and somewhat 18z Euro) has backed down tonight. 18z Euro still had 1"-2" central valley northward.
  6. TellicoWx
    Definitely a nice jump for much of the state..think Holston called it in a earlier post, this strong of a front plus fgen and orographic lift is gonna squeeze everything it can out and models are struggling how to handle that the last few days.
  7. TellicoWx
    Nice increase on 12z EPS for my area Mon/Tues
  8. TellicoWx
    Not the only one having a hard time believing it. Ensembles, especially the GEFS, leaned a lot more toward cold chasing fropa instead of the Miller A on their OPs.
  9. TellicoWx
    0z suite: GFS: Miller A low along the gulf ICON, CMC, UKIE: cold chasing moisture
  10. TellicoWx
    Yeah, nose makes it to around Chatt. Decent ice event for AL with that setup. Sounding for around Anniston:
  11. TellicoWx
    Nice increase here in 12z EPS members showing something. About all can ask for at this range, get the members...then hopefully trends wetter.
  12. TellicoWx
    Decent uptick on 12z EPS for north of 40 and SE KY
  13. TellicoWx
    12z Icon with the southern most solution starts developing the energy deeper in the gulf before turning the corner...with Jacksonville FL getting some flakes lol.
  14. TellicoWx
    12z GEFS not as enthusiastic about the chances, about 50% chances of flakes...10-20% chance of flakes sticking to something lol. Think we could see things swing back and forth up to 48-72 hrs out. Remember some of the old timers saying..when a big HP comes down the plains, watch for surprise energy pieces when front is entering SE or on the backside when it begins to relax.
  15. TellicoWx
    Safe to say all the big global models have some sort of energy along the front..now just need to start seeing some consensus between each OP and their Ensembles.
  16. TellicoWx
    Euro already looks better at 126
  17. TellicoWx
    Ukie looking better than it has for return moisture along the front, interested to see if Euro follows it.
  18. TellicoWx
    Need the OP to get some support from the GEFS
  19. TellicoWx
    Interesting 0z suite so far from GFS and CMC:
  20. TellicoWx
    Some increase in the mean so far on the 0z EPS: 12z vs 0z
  21. TellicoWx
    Decent day for the Ensembles: Measurable (1+), for my area. Any flakes in November here is a win lol. GEFS: 6z 1/21 (0) 12z 1/21 (1) 18z 6/21 (2) 00z 13/21 (7) EPS: since 12z yesterday 12z 8/51 (2) 00z 19/51 (4) 12z 21/51 (6) Still waiting on tonight's 0z EPS. 0z GEFS also had a sharp drop for the mean high, closer to the EPS now in the mid 30's.
  22. TellicoWx
    Key piece to me is the piece of energy on 6z and prior GFS is weaker on 12z GFS, allowing Atlantic ridge to build back to Greenland quicker in allowing a deeper trough...12z GFS and Euro doesn't have it beating on western edge of the ridge. (6z vs 12z GFS)
  23. TellicoWx
    Need the lead system exiting the NE to act as a block and slow the pattern for the 11/12 piece of energy (0z Euro)...GFS is more progressive, and scoots it out to sea.
  24. TellicoWx
    0z Euro continued the cold for the 11/12 timeframes. EPS increased the total members from 8 to 18 (my area) showing measurable snowfall.
  25. TellicoWx
    00z GFS unloaded the arctic on the Eastern 2/3 of the US (very impressive for beginning of Nov), and kept rotating energy down the backside. Hundred different scenarios in all that mess lol.
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