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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    Comparing current temps in Crossville to the 18z Euro meteogram, the front looks to be about an hour ahead of schedule. Question now is does the moisture back over MS fill in and pivot to the north as modeled.
  2. TellicoWx
    Front has reached Crossville
  3. TellicoWx
    Yeah, most setups seems like forever to reach Dayton/Spring City when watching my area
  4. TellicoWx
    Interested to see how quickly it can spill over
  5. TellicoWx
    NAM and 3k still good for the valley
  6. TellicoWx
    Usually a good indicator to how the NAM is gonna go
  7. TellicoWx
    Heavy sleet reported in Camden, TN
  8. TellicoWx
    00z RAP and 18z Euro
  9. TellicoWx
    00z HRRR not blinking on eastern valley so far
  10. TellicoWx
    A lot of bright banding between Clarksville and Jackson
  11. TellicoWx
    Here's a PWS graph from near Paris, TN..looks like a fairly steady few deg drop per hour.
  12. TellicoWx
    They pulled the trigger cause, like MRX, they were counting on the warmth ahead of the front to keep roadways clear..not happening, areas they have fell below 32 are already freezing up.
  13. TellicoWx
    Yeah Tom Meiners with WBBJ shared
  14. TellicoWx
    Nws Memphis issuing a WWA for all middle TN until midnight
  15. TellicoWx
    Storm spotter video out of Lake Co in NW TN showing moderate snow and roadways beginning to turn white.
  16. TellicoWx
    Freezing rain, sleet, snow beginning to stick to elevated surfaces in NW TN
  17. TellicoWx
    22z HRRR doubling totals over NW TN
  18. TellicoWx
    Lots of sleet reports across northern AR with some snow reports mixed in. Bridges are icing up quickly.
  19. TellicoWx
    Intial cold push has entered NW TN, basically extends from Clarksville sw to Humboldt and just north of Memphis...should be a steady gradual drop behind it.
  20. TellicoWx
    Looking at PWS up stream it's acting like a double front, with the true arctic front lagging several hours behind the initial cold push. Energy/lift is riding between the two, more along the true arctic front. Looking at PWAT surging up the Apps (visible in the increase in moisture on the NC side of the TN/NC line as the arctic front is catching the lead push) and isobars backing down the front as it pulls in to the area, piece of energy is riding up the Apps enhancing the lift along east TN increasing the total.
  21. TellicoWx
    So far on obs at the surface behind the front, the dry air is lagging behind by roughly by about 5-6 hrs. My thoughts right now are about an 1" accumulation for central valley north, plateau/foothills Smokies 1"-2", with areas above 1500' (valley/plateau/mtns) having the best chance to over perform.
  22. TellicoWx
    0z GFS says congrats to Knox Co...6.3" lol
  23. TellicoWx
    Just one example across W KY/Boothill area from one of the HRW models (noticeable increases on all the HRW, NAM, so on):
  24. TellicoWx
    May not amount much for us, but one thing I have noticed since yesterday with this system, is the mesoscale models have way underperformed on guidance up until 18-24 hrs out. Yesterday it was the upper Ohio valley (great read in their sub forum of how the nam was very late joining the globals, specifically the Euro, on guidance). Tonight there is a large uptick over Western KY/AR MO boothill once in that 18-24 timeframe. Seems like the mesos are playing catch up with the speed of changeover and moisture being squeezed out. May mean nothing here, but interested in watching how it plays out.
  25. TellicoWx
    You will really like the 12z lol
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