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TellicoWx

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  1. TellicoWx
    As far as QBO..we are entering QBOEM which strongly supports the MJO reawakening in Phase 5..if you want SSW splits, then would need QBOEL (should enter that phase in the fall...good spot for next winter). Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  2. TellicoWx
    Combine a +AO regime with modeling heading into phase 5 with the MJO (12z GFS looked correct at H5 in the LR for MJO 5), that leaves the SE forum with very few ways out (mainly a deep -NAO needed). You want the modeling to get to Phase 5 sooner rather than later (weak flirting with very low amp Phase 8 is just adding to the delay)...if the later happens then you start putting very end of Jan into early Feb in trouble for a pattern change to cold. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  3. TellicoWx
    MJO has the most influence on the PNA/NAO...since going into the low amp/COD, the PNA has looked the way it should (no sustainability...looks like a rollercoaster between +/-)...one thing the GFS has been doing to get it's cold is meandering the TPV away from Alaska/ W. Canada. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  4. TellicoWx
    Until the MJO can "reawaken" (for better or worse)...we are at the mercy of the meandering blue turd in the Arctic Circle (needs to move toward the Hudson instead of feeding the GOA low)..if looking for sustained cold, everything has always pointed toward very end of Jan/Feb (analogs/mjo progression/teleconnections..etc). If looking for snow, then throw a dart lol. Cold pattern and snow are two separate things. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  5. TellicoWx
    MJO is about the 3rd passenger back on the bus Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  6. TellicoWx
    Remember it's not only the -epo number, but more importantly, the orientation. You want to see the epo and/or PNA ridging be meridonial (N/S oriented) vs tilted more E/W. Too much tilt and the cold would spill west of the Rockies and promote a SER here for us. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  7. TellicoWx
    Mixed research results using the Top Down Approach since the 80s..some of the more recent research points to a larger connection between solar wind cycles and QBO effects over the Southern Hemisphere when comparing DJF. If you take that data and combine it with the QBOEM data on the reversal of QBOEM effects flipping in spring..makes me wonder if the Earths tilt is causing a propagation of influence between SH/NH (basically the closer tilt to the sun, the greater the solar wind influence). Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  8. TellicoWx
    Singapore station is where most of the data is collected for the QBO research. Most of the current research is focused on the MC (with a correlation showing QBOEM enhances convection there while QBOWM suppresses it). My question is what is the effect of other areas outside the MC and since we are in QBOEM is it also helping to enhance convection basin wide (which only helps create more interference). Something else that is interesting is the data shows QBOEM has the exact opposite effect on the MC during spring/summer when compared to boreal winter..there is zero understanding as to why. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  9. TellicoWx
    Agree, if the RMM is having issues locating the actual MJO, then LR modeling will continue to have these back and forth flips. Still think the modeling is rushing the flip a little bit (even if the MJO loop is tighter). Interested to see if Webb's theory on the Modoki can form..just another piece to the puzzle lol. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  10. TellicoWx
    If the MJO is stalling due to the convective interference, then it should have a sharper loop and continue eastward. But with it being masked...the RMM could mistake the convection for MJO impulse..overreacting and taking it on a bigger loop into 4/5 before correcting. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  11. TellicoWx
    There's also research showing this interference convection can impede the MJO (slowing/stalling it)..once the interference begins to subside, the MJO can quickly finish its propagation eastward. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  12. TellicoWx
    Would have to loop satellite back to where there was a clear signal of the MJO and filter out the other convective flareups (while still following the MJO eastward) to see where the MJO truly is. Webb refers to it as Kelvin waves...but research considers it generated from OLR generated from Rossbys. Webb could very well be correct on how this plays into generating some type of Modoki during La Nina like conditions..or he could fall flat on his face. There's just not enough research that has been completed in this area..the recognition and studies for Rossby/OLR masking MJOs have only started to be completed in the last year (and there was still a lot of unanswered questions in those studies)...same with the QBOEM's influence in enhancing the MJO as it propagates over the MC. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  13. TellicoWx
    Research data was presented at an AMS Con that lends support to what was presented in the RMS data. If I remember the paper and slide correctly, basically the OLR from Rossby waves can create flare ups in convection along areas we typically consider MJO areas. It gives the RMM a false sense that the MJO is in a different location, but in reality it had been propagating eastward (just weaker than the convection created by the Rossby/OLR)...basically the MJO is masked. That's the issue with taking the RMM verbatim...we are just at the tip of the iceberg as far as understanding QBO/MJO/Rossby/OLR interaction, still need tons of funding for the research needed. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  14. TellicoWx
    That is QBOEM...the Easterly winds have taken over at the mid latitudes, while the westerlies have weakened to near zero. As the stronger easterlies propagate downwards, QBOEL when the easterly wind is strongest in lower levels, the westerly wind will flip at top and start increasing (as the lower easterlies begin weakening (QBOWM). The cycle of the QBO. QBOEM has research data supporting the QBO have a greater influence in helping the MJO increase convection over the MC. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  15. TellicoWx
    What the GEFS does to the EPO past truncation is both sad and hilarious at the same time...a 12 point spread on a 16 day forecast. May as well throw blind darts at a spinning dart board lol. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  16. TellicoWx
    That was the MJO forecast on Jan 7, 2015 to Jan 28, 2015. All models (and reality) torched that Jan. I remember the cliff diving was very high...then Feb happened. The pattern flipped Feb 7. Nov 2014 also featured a cold spell similar to this year. Feb 2015 delivered the cold and snow east of the MS. Torches like 2018 feature a PNA that goes severely negative in Jan (-500 or lower), and so far that's not appearing in the LR modeling. Point is it's still Mid Dec and no reason or sign to even form a line to the cliff..yet. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  17. TellicoWx
    If would have seen this MJO forecast on Jan 7...would have cliff dived...yes or no Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  18. TellicoWx
    I agree...think the GEFS is jumping the gun on the cold flip. Will be interesting to see if the EPS starts noticing anything in the 2/3 week of Jan. I think Feb will be interesting for the forum as it unfolds.
  19. TellicoWx
    Would I cancel winter...um no lol. Here's some data why (also fits with Carvers thinking of a back loaded winter). This is for TYS going back to 1910, and also supports why last year is completely different than this year. Comparing the temp data set from every year, only 7 currently correlate with this year when comparing low temps (this year Nov: 19, Dec: 27 barring a flip in modeling to end the year Dec will be closer to 23-24 as coldest recorded low). Years with a similar +4 or higher spread from Nov to Dec (late Jan/Feb relation): 2014/15...Flipped Cold 1970/71...Flipped Cold 1959/60...Flipped Cold 1956/57...Continued Warmth 1950/51...Flipped Cold 1922/23...Flipped Cold 1911/12...Flipped Cold So 6/7 (86%)...had a flip to cold. Compared to last year (coldest low Nov: 21, Dec: 21...no chg). Winters where Nov to Dec had a +1/-1 variance: 2018/19..Flat trend/Warmth 2012/13...Flat trend 2011/12...Flat trend 1994/95...Flipped Cold 1991/92...Flipped Cold 1987/88...Flipped Cold 1979/80...Flat trend 1967/68...Flipped Cold 1940/41...Flat trend 1938/39...Flat trend 1928/29...Flat trend 1921/22...Flat trend 1913/14...Flat trend So 4/13 (31%) only had some sort of cold pattern reshuffle. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  20. TellicoWx
    If Naval Academy research is right or close..then as we go thru winter the IO convection should intensify as it moves into the MC Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  21. TellicoWx
    Jeff should love that lol...that's what lead to his 70s in Chatty last Feb Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  22. TellicoWx
    Some of the research from the Naval Academy Oceanography Division over the last year or so supports your idea Jax. A long way to go in this area of research, but the initial data when going back to 1980 has started showing a correlation between the QBO (when broken into 4 catergories) has a direct effect on how the MJO behaves when it starts entering the MC until it exits. We are currently moving from QBOWL into QBOEM. If the data holds up, QBOEM has shown a correlation to enhancing the MJO as it rotates thru the MC (current theory revolves around the cold/warm pool and shear between the lower and mid trop). Will be interesting to see how the models trend vs the data correlation. Current QBO phase using the 4 phase...and Naval Academy findings presented at the AMS Con. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  23. TellicoWx
    To me it's more of a intraseasonal pattern shift, the question is when it shifts how much does the enso state/mjo/teleconnections dull or intensify the warm effects...same as when it shifts back. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  24. TellicoWx
    Think for next weeks system to work (mainly only for NE TN), would need a really amped system to come NE out of the gulf tracking through the Carolinas, plus the west based NAO to go as modeled (without the Pacific, -NAO is not much help to the rest of us especially the further west you go). The pacific looks horrid, lots of pacific air flooding in with those teleconnections out that way. Great writeup.
  25. TellicoWx
    I'm just glad to see the Euro not taking such a big poo on the EPO starting around D6 as we keep moving forward. GFS is too all over the place past that point with it's super tanking the 6z. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
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