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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    15z vs 21z for eastern valley (heavier amounts barely make it into NE TN)
  2. TellicoWx
    1" mean only makes it to TYS
  3. TellicoWx
    21z SREF with a big shift east with the LP..not a good run for south of 40 in the valley
  4. TellicoWx
    Agree, with Blue Ridge and John...overnight crew will prob issue for the typical areas (mtns/ va/ky)..tomorrow crew at the earliest for everyone else (if needed). As far as the short range models, we are still outside their greater error range..until there's a clear picture of what happens during the passage over the Rockies, H5 will still bounce around.
  5. TellicoWx
    Maybe John (or one of you guys can remember)...What would be a similar system (in regards to the potential banding) in the past? May give some insight into which had a better handle (Euro or GFS).
  6. TellicoWx
    Something that strikes me, is the strength of the NW flow on that RGEM map...not often you see a model have the setup to take NW flow all the way to the SC coast.
  7. TellicoWx
    Neighbors gets 6"...5 miles down road gets a dusting lol
  8. TellicoWx
    Interstesting piece in MRX AFD: Finally, the strength of the front is impressive, and will result in the potential for banding. The GFS and NAM both indicate negative EPV in the 700-500mb layer which would also support the potential for banding
  9. TellicoWx
    18z RGEM didn't dig quite as much vs 12z so it edged the front a hair more east w/lp
  10. TellicoWx
    That's the 12z lol..here's the 18z
  11. TellicoWx
    Hard to tell but looks like it is trying to get something going near LA/MS border
  12. TellicoWx
    Tail is digger a little deeper...NAM keeps doing this in upcoming runs, will be close to the gulf lol
  13. TellicoWx
    Lol, that doesn't come until 00z/12z timeframe...one of the two will fold
  14. TellicoWx
  15. TellicoWx
    Seen worse from Euro...baby step better than 0z
  16. TellicoWx
    I understand their stance right now, alot easier to ramp up tommorow evening, than it would be to ramp down.
  17. TellicoWx
    Yeah, wouldnt want to be a met at MRX right now
  18. TellicoWx
    Don't think the globals will have an agreement until the energy/trough begin to clear the Rockies..around 12z tomorrow..unless sampling over the NW as it comes ashore can help sooner
  19. TellicoWx
    Just look at 0z UKie, looks same almost lol
  20. TellicoWx
    The westward trend on the GFS isn't much an LP issue, as it's how the trough and energy swing thru the Rockies...Each run the GFS has been strengthening the tail end of the energy, while slowly digging a tad more each subsequent run..in doing so, it's slowing the front down as it moves across the forum..hence snow line keeps backing up. The LP generation is secondary (think that is what has been leading to the finger like accums on the GEFS members). Front catches back edge of the moisture (fingers across middle TN, then cold slows as it pushes over the plateau (moisture begins to out run it), then the next eastern fingers are created when the surface low begins it's formation, adding to the lift. Watch the energy and how it is trending on the tail as it comes thru CA/Rockies..if it keeps getting stronger (front will slow/trend west the initial thump), and create a further northern LP (due to the angle of the front slowing, so the Apps don't help the surface gen until further NE).ist Ops/ens still showing the front needing the extra twist/lift from the Apps to complete surface generation (except the NAM, which I think is over amping in AL)
  21. TellicoWx
    12z GFS moves toward Euro with where it pops Low...WV
  22. TellicoWx
    GFS digging slightly more...see where it goes
  23. TellicoWx
    Now if Europe could kindly get it's act together and join North America, that would be great...running out of time to ask Santa for a sled.
  24. TellicoWx
    CMC actually kept the NW flow snow going..
  25. TellicoWx
    Yeah, it's almost like a resolution issue
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