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TellicoWx

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  1. TellicoWx
    I know, I know..it's the HRRR in la la land (end of it's run)..but something interesting. As the center of the trough passes by, there is an enhancement of snow over the valley. Something to watch for on the other short range modeling. With the way everything is modeled, and such a vigorous trough (evident by the numerous banding features on all short range models), while the wrap around low moisture is almost locked in, I think there is a "potential" to bust high across the valley back to middle TN on the forcing from the trough itself (wringing out all available moisture/ terrain enhancement for the plateau adding even more lift/ and the high snow ratios shown)....but could be wishful thinking too lol
  2. TellicoWx
    Wow, LaConte only got 6-8"? Recorded over a foot on the Skyway here. But, yeah it's usually about 25-30% below what the 3k shows on the peak here.
  3. TellicoWx
    Can differ from office to office on criteria...I know FFC is real low
  4. TellicoWx
    Actually like Middle/West TN odds going into Jan...alot better than last several years anyway
  5. TellicoWx
    Almost time to start watching reality vs short range models...almost a 40° spread between St.Louis to Omaha currently
  6. TellicoWx
    NW trend for the win lol jk
  7. TellicoWx
    Problem with the plumes is they are basically an "ensemble" view of the NAM (use that loosely)...and they are like any other models ensembles at close range (jump more due to not being able to get a mean spread since it is so close to the event)...and in the fact they like to really overamp members, they arent good for totals. But they are one way to see a precursor of what the upcoming NAM run may do. They are for trend purposes only. As far as the RGEM, it used to be horrible IMBY..but the last year or so it has done a remarkable job on borderline events here. The more micro climates are at play, the more I pay attention to it.
  8. TellicoWx
    9z SREF looks better than the 3z...mean looks more like what the 6z Euro map did Plumes still haven't loaded
  9. TellicoWx
    WAA really getting going here this morning...temps in 20s in the valley, 50s at 1500'
  10. TellicoWx
    0z GFS
  11. TellicoWx
    GFS runs low up thru Charlotte
  12. TellicoWx
    Yeah, some of those bands really add up where they cross at
  13. TellicoWx
    0z RGEM
  14. TellicoWx
    Atleast the RGEM hasn't lost hope lol
  15. TellicoWx
    One thing that is prevelant behind the front on the 3k and HRRR, is the banding MRX was talking about...3k has some intense rates under them
  16. TellicoWx
    Soundings from Crossville and Athens after front passes thru @45 on the NAM..has a dry nose working in around the 700mb level
  17. TellicoWx
    I would believe it more than a deepening LP engaging the reverse and backing up lol
  18. TellicoWx
    3k NAM takes 6hrs to go from Gatlinburg to Bristol
  19. TellicoWx
    Yeah, just for that simple reason I would toss it lol
  20. TellicoWx
    Then it goes into OH, before remembering it's supposed to be in WV lol
  21. TellicoWx
    Before everyone cliff jumps lol...while not good, any shift in the LP generation will have big impacts on East TN. Models don't handle lee side genesis well.
  22. TellicoWx
    Plume for Tys, (mean not quite as bad as viewing thru 12hr mean) but is skewed due to the big ones
  23. TellicoWx
    For middle/west forum folks..mean catches the front, but jumps valley due to the late low...12 hr mean
  24. TellicoWx
    Yeah...looking at the mean progression, looks to be in the WV camp
  25. TellicoWx
    I dropped from 50% greater than 4" to 10%...40 north is 25%...NE TN 50%
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