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TellicoWx

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  1. TellicoWx
    It's pretty much a choice of err on side of public safety or catch twitter heat for being wrong if the warning busts. Think that was why they pulled the warning even tho the criteria wasn't quite met earlier this afternoon for NE TN (it was where they were confident the most travel impact would be regardless of how the models shifted tonight)
  2. TellicoWx
    Great point, and why I think MRX pulls the trigger on upgrades with the 4 am update. If it was a regular day, I think they wait until 6z/12z runs...but with it being Christmas Eve travel, it doesn't really give that leeway to inform the public
  3. TellicoWx
    Yeah, that was what I was meaning...0% chance it will be sooner
  4. TellicoWx
    They are not going to make a call until the entire 0z suite runs is my guess. Wouldn't be surprised if they delay the AFD, due to waiting on the 0z Euro
  5. TellicoWx
    Front just literally blew thru Memphis with a gust close to 60 mph close to 60 mph...temps crashing now
  6. TellicoWx
    Tornado watches being hoisted in MS/LA now
  7. TellicoWx
    Actually it shows just how dynamic this system is...Timmer has been harping on the tornado threat over the Carolinas the last two days. With the dynamics in play, more deepening of the low wouldn't completely surprise me.
  8. TellicoWx
    Agree with @snowbird1230, hope they have a generator. Mtn wave event, plus heavy snow not a good combo up there with the temps that will follow
  9. TellicoWx
    3k NAM
  10. TellicoWx
    Don't think it is so much the timing of the front, more precip shield expanding as we draw closer and low strength/placement
  11. TellicoWx
    Euro/HRRR/NAM/3k all with significant jumps west...not even gonna wait on RGEM/GFS/CMC...think MRX will have to consider pulling the WSW back to Knox/Blount
  12. TellicoWx
    0z HRRR (and NW flow snow is still ongoing)
  13. TellicoWx
  14. TellicoWx
    0z HRRR following Euro west compared to 18z
  15. TellicoWx
    Front approaching the Mississippi River currently
  16. TellicoWx
    Due to the timing of this (Christmas Eve travel)..it makes it harder to wait until getting into more of the HRRR/RAP wheelhouse
  17. TellicoWx
    If they ride with the Euro and it holds serve (no trend west)..I could see them possibly upgrading from Knox/Blount to WSW...and adding McMinn/Rhea/Meigs/Central,Northern Plateau to a WWA...barring the CMC/RGEM don't pull a GFS (then they hold serve)
  18. TellicoWx
    They have heavy weighted the Euro, with it trending west, if that continues. Do they remain with it (extend advisory/warnings) or do they flip and disregard it?
  19. TellicoWx
    Yes, the potential is there. If you take the Euro for the initial LP and combine it with the features with the banding/NW flow shown on the meso models (Global models aren't the best at those).
  20. TellicoWx
    If it backs up anymore at 0z, MRX is gonna have a tough call to make
  21. TellicoWx
    Lol, nvm just saw that was the Euro
  22. TellicoWx
    That's a fairly significant shift since 6z..when comparing 6z, 12z, 18z
  23. TellicoWx
    It comes down to the 700mb moisture...GFS is the driest, while RGEM keeps the 700 saturated..everyone else is in the middle
  24. TellicoWx
    OPRH (measure of potential snowfall rate) sounding over Monroe Co at the time of change over. -2.35, could be some really intense rates right after it changes over.
  25. TellicoWx
    From the 18z 3k, another feature that shows how vigorous this trough is...How many times do you see a model producing intense lake effect snow off Lake Wheeler in N. AL?
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