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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    18z NAM coming in way weaker on the northern side precip shield
  2. TellicoWx
    Euro cut way down of QPF vs 0z = warmer solution/ no dynamic cooling
  3. TellicoWx
    More of a problem with using globals with this type of system..it will be very dymaic cooling driven, and it's hard for globals using 6hr windows to "see" exactly what's going on. Take McMinn Co as an example..12z actually looks better on the sounding and qpf increased from 6z, but snow accu didn't...it's hard for the model to interpret what exactly happened during the window of heaviest precip (add in this is very marginal..not much separating from light rain and big wet snowflakes). Hourly meso models may have a better feel for what happens in this setup.
  4. TellicoWx
    RGEM was close to a decent event (2" per hr rates along spine of the mountains). NAM took the heavier rates along TN/GA border...if the rates keep trending better/shield expands..a lot more of the forum could be in buisness
  5. TellicoWx
    Could the 18z GFS be a sign it's starting to step toward the Euro? Looks much better for east of Knox on that run...(1st system). Not sure it has been handling the precip rate well (dynamic cooling is going to play a big factor).
  6. TellicoWx
    Quite a few outages for FLEC here as well
  7. TellicoWx
    Forrest Service usually shuts it down during an event (turn cars around at Indian Boundary entrance)..TDOT will put up the big road closed signs that block the road
  8. TellicoWx
    Current totals here..Mt Vernon/Belltown area 5.5" (still moderate snow), Coker Creek 6.2" (moderate snow)..Tellico 3" (flurries lol)...difference those bands make
  9. TellicoWx
    Nice band setup just outside town
  10. TellicoWx
    Still hammering here
  11. TellicoWx
    Pic from my sister in Madisonville
  12. TellicoWx
    Ripping snow here...roads have coating of slush
  13. TellicoWx
    There's the energy...as it lifts NE should pop the low..Hwy 411 up the valley looks to be the divide line between 2-3" and 3"+ roughly
  14. TellicoWx
    Front just went thru Sweetwater...should be approaching Hwy 411 corridor
  15. TellicoWx
    Noticed spring city was down to 37..wind gusted close to 40 mph as arctic front came thru
  16. TellicoWx
    Skies dark enough here that it activated the street lights
  17. TellicoWx
    When you couple the dynamics/orographic lift/and models typically having a hard time "seeing" low level moisture...think a lot more of the area may bust higher after the initial thump
  18. TellicoWx
    Would have really liked to see the 0z Euro hold steady vs 18z (Knox/south)...MRX prob won't change anything as far as the advisories/warnings (except maybe move the warning a county to the west).
  19. TellicoWx
    00z Euro cut about an inch off my totals vs 18z, but overall similar setup
  20. TellicoWx
    Glancing at the 0z suite, looks like the ARW and HRRR were the only ones to get the front placement right vs current ground conditions. All the globals and NAM were slower vs reality
  21. TellicoWx
    1/2" Hail report as line went thru Selmer, TN
  22. TellicoWx
    Don't let @McMinnWx see the CMC lol jk
  23. TellicoWx
    If you loop all the 0z models at the same time frame, the LP placement is very close amongst all them...it's progressive bias is at longer range.
  24. TellicoWx
    Something to remember also about the GFS, it has a big convective feedback bias...could affect it's modeling of the precip shield
  25. TellicoWx
    Goofy decides to join the crowd
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